full

Episode 414 - Trump Disrupts Established Power

In this episode we discuss:

(03:00) Aus Open Tennis

(13:44) Housing Report

(20:31) Trump

(35:57) Greenwald on Power

(42:51) News Corp Captured

(44:34) UK Poll

(45:18) Taiwan

(50:19) China's Economy

(53:56) USA Announces Aus Foreign Policy

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Transcript
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Suburban Eastern Australia, an environment that has, over time,

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evolved some extraordinarily unique groups of homosapiens.

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But today, we observe a small tribe akin to a group of meerkats that

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gather together atop a small mound to watch, question, and discuss the

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current events of their city, their country, and their world at large.

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Let's listen keenly and observe this group fondly known as the

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Iron Fist and the Velvet Glove.

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Hello and welcome back.

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Yes, the Iron Fist and the Velvet Glove podcast in our new time, Monday nights.

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8pm, if you're in the chat room, eventually, say hello, we'll try

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and incorporate your comments.

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I'm Trevor, with me as always from regional Queensland,

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Scott the Velvet Glove.

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How are you, Scott?

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Not too bad, Trevor.

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I hope everyone's well, but I'm starting to look with concern over the

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tropical cyclone that's on its way.

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And it's, Looking like it's, well, the center of the prediction is it's going

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to actually cross over at Townsville.

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The most northerly part of it is it's still predicted to hit Innisfail at

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the north or Ely Beach in the south.

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Now, I would like it to be further north from where I'm sitting right now

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because that will reduce the rain and everything else which is going to come.

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And it could actually also cock up my travel plans for Thursday afternoon.

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There.

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So I'm down to Brisbane next weekend, so yeah.

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Yeah.

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Book an earlier flight if you can, Scott.

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I reckon.

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Yeah, . Yeah.

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Yeah.

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It's always a possibility.

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Yeah.

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Good luck dodging that.

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So, yeah, it's been a stinker in Brisbane today.

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Oh God.

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Yeah.

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38, 39 degrees, depending on where you are.

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And I'm in air conditioned comfort at the moment.

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Looking forward to chatting with you, Scott, about what's going

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on in the world and we'll try and solve a few problems one by one.

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Let's start with, well, what's on the agenda, dear listener?

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We're going to talk about, Australian Open tennis.

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No Russian flags, you might have noticed.

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a little bit on housing.

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A fair bit on Trump and trying to explain the Trump phenomena because, let's face

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it, that's starting to get some Momentum and traction and we'll all be talking

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about Trump over the next 12 months or at least nine months So we need to

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really understand Donald Trump Little bit about Taiwan and China And maybe Yemen.

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Finish up with the Lord's Prayer and Stephanie Rice, depending how we go.

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So, Landon Hardbottom.

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He's in the chat room.

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He says it's minus 15 in Beijing.

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Yeah.

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So I think he's actually trying to actually pay out on us there by saying,

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look at me, I'm up here in the cold and you're down there in the heat.

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Yes.

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So, good on you, Landon.

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Now, Scott, you been watching the tennis at all?

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No, I don't really watch any sports.

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You know, I do watch a little bit of rugby when it's on, but I haven't,

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I don't watch, I do watch the Rugby Union, not the Rugby League.

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So, yeah.

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I was watching a little bit just the other night and, Medvedev was playing.

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He's Russian.

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And on the screen where they've got their name and the score and beside their name

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is usually their flag of their country.

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But in Medvedev's case, being Russian, no flag.

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So, at the Australian Open, they've decided that they're not going to show the

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flag of any Russian or Belarusian players, and Scott, got any opinion on that?

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I can understand where it's coming from because they, they've taken

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the view that, Russia's invasion of Ukraine was completely unprovoked

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and everything else, so they had to, they had to take a stand against it.

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I'm not a big fan of stans and that sort of stuff on those sorts of things,

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because I think to myself it's only sport, so they've just got to deal with it.

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it is what it is.

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It looks like it's a fairly muted approach by the tennis Australia, but

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it is something that they could do to Effectively protest against Russia's

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invasion of Ukraine, but it wasn't, you know, it's not really barring the

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players from competing or anything else.

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I gather they can still take their prize money back to Russia.

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Can they?

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Yeah.

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So.

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It's no big deal then.

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It's just, it is what it is.

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It's, it's just, it's just blocking the national identity of the country and

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that sort of stuff that they're from.

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The problem with these things is once you do it once, you've got

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to be consistent in applying it.

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Yeah, so you're going to say that they should remove the American flag, are you?

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Well, I was thinking Israel.

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I mean, what's, what are they saying here?

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If you invade another country Then we're not gonna let you have your

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flag of your athletes, so, well, you know, Israel, is Israel not invaded?

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No, not really.

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They're actually trying to Palestinian land.

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They're actually trying to keep the, what is currently in

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Israel's borders under control.

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Now, you know, that's, that's what Russia would say.

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Yeah, that's what Russia would say.

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But Ukraine has been an independent state since 1989.

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It's just one of those.

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Here's my point.

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But do you agree with the point though, that if you're going to

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have laws, Yeah, you're going to have to apply equally to everybody.

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So what is the law?

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If you've invaded another country, you, athletes, you know, no flag.

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Exactly.

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So what you then have to decide has Pellet, has.

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Israel actually invaded another country.

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Not really, because it is, it is part of Israel.

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However, it is also a border of a potential Palestinian state.

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Now, if it actually becomes an official Palestinian state, then

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Israel has clearly invaded them.

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So that is something that I do think that they're going to have to

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look at and actually get it right.

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Okay, but I guess the rationale is, if a country does something really bad, then

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we're going to punish that country by not allowing their athletes to use the flag.

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And so, you know, arguably, even if you don't think it's an invasion as

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such, what Israel's done is really bad.

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Oh no, it is.

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It is.

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It is terrible.

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You know, I have never defended Israel.

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I've only, they do have the right to defend themselves.

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So would you be happy if they also decided, okay, no Israeli

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flags for Israeli tennis players?

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You'd be happy with that.

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Do you think there'll be a fifth?

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That if they're going to have it for Ukrainian and Belarusian players,

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do you think, just as a matter of equality and consistency, that

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that should be what they would do?

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Yeah, would have thought so.

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Okay, there we are.

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We're in agreement on something, Scott.

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Yeah, I know.

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We agree on some things occasionally.

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Yeah, it's one of those things.

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I have never defended Israel.

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You know, it's I'm not saying you are.

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No, it's you know, according to what's his name, the guy that actually sent me

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that message last week, Andrew, wasn't it?

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Yeah.

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Yeah, noisy Andrew.

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It's one of those things.

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I have never actually defended Israel.

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I have always said that a terrible, terrible mistake was made in 1947.

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And you know, we've got to live with that now.

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It's one of those things.

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And I did actually ask the question.

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It really wouldn't worry me if we actually created a state of Israel

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in Australia that became part of the Commonwealth of Australia, but

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it was just one of those things.

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I don't think you'd ever be able to get that across from Gina

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Reinhardt or anything like that.

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She'd really crack the shits about that, but it is what it is.

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Landon's in the chat room.

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Landon, what do you reckon, Landon?

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If it's good enough for Ukraine and Belarus, then Israel?

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And Israeli athletes, I'm keen to know, Mr Hardbottom, what your

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hard opinion might be on this one.

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Are you going to live up to your name or not, Landon, or are you just going to

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be, you know, Mr Soft Mr Soft something?

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I think he'll probably back Israel, but anyway, we'll see what he says, yeah.

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I did a quick Google before it started, Scott, just to check on whether any other

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sports had followed a similar practice.

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And what I found was that with the Olympics in, Paris, that, similar thing,

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Russian and Belarusian athletes, won't be able to represent their nations.

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They'll be sort of neutral athletes.

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And that's been decided by the International Olympic Committee.

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and, so there was a, a, a poll in the UK, by the YouGov in UK, about Whether

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UK citizens agreed with this, and okay, the responses overall, actually I think

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I can put this up on the screen for you, Scott, so let me just find this one here.

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There it is, so, should be allowed to compete in their own national teams.

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That's what 14 percent of UK people think.

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Should be allowed to compete but only as neutral athletes, 34 percent think that.

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Shouldn't be allowed to compete at all was 33 percent and a don't know of 19.

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So, um, that was the, the figures.

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Interestingly On age, the older demographic was more likely to say,

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should not be allowed to compete at all.

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So, they were the ones with the, sort of, harder opinions about that.

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The older you were, the more likely you were to say that, Ukrainian,

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Russian and Belarusian athletes shouldn't be allowed to compete at all.

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So Well, one other thing to myself, I think I should That would probably

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be a fairer system if you're going to actually balk them from doing anything,

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then you shouldn't allow them to compete.

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You know?

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It's You think that's fairer?

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Well, I think it is, because it's just Well, it's like, you

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know, the They're just innocent.

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The Yeah, okay.

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They're just innocent.

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They might be objectors to the whole I know that.

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situation.

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They could well be, but then they're part of a country and all that sort of stuff.

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Yeah, it's exactly the same thing that is being done, that was done

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To the Springboks and everything else, we didn't allow them to compete

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internationally because we were, we found their whole racist system repugnant.

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And I agreed wholeheartedly with that.

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It's one of those things we've actually got to actually say.

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My question for the Olympic Committee would be, is it really that bad

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that Russia has invaded Ukraine?

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And if it is, then I think we should actually back up the 47 percent and

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not allow them to compete at all.

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But then at the same time, look around the world and what countries

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are doing to other countries.

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Yeah, I know.

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Is anybody doing anything as bad around the world?

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Because if you're going to start doing it to one country, for one

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reason, you have to look at them all.

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And then, you know, you probably We're going to reach the point where we're

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not going to have many people I want to compete if we're going to start

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banning individual athletes because their countries have bombed somebody.

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You're probably going to end up that you'd only have the Olympics

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involving, well, Europe, except for the United Kingdom, Western Europe.

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And well, through the way, through to the East and that sort of stuff,

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you'd have those sorts of countries.

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You'd have most of Africa.

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Possibly not the North of Africa and that type of thing because they

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have been involved in some pretty bad stuff in the Middle East.

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You'd have to look at there and that sort of stuff.

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You'd actually say, well, we shouldn't allow them.

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You wouldn't have Australia.

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I mean, if you looked at what we've been involved with.

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Yeah, I know because we, you know, we invaded Iraq and everything else.

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Yeah.

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So, I mean, the whole idea of the Olympics, to some extent, is

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a gathering of people from all over the world, converging in one

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place, in friendly competition.

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It sort of defeats the purpose if you're going to start bringing

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politics into it, I think.

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Well, it's one of those things, you've actually got to decide where you're

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going to have your politics, don't you?

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You know.

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And not on the sporting field.

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Well, I can appreciate that, but then would you allow, would you have

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allowed the Springboks to compete at the time that their country

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was involved in racist politics?

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yeah, good question.

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And, good question.

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If it was the Olympics, it's like everybody's supposed to be there.

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Then I'd say, yes.

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You know, the Springboks were just in a, a sport which was Between, what,

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half a dozen different countries?

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Yeah, exactly.

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It's one of those things.

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It was pretty small and that sort of stuff, so Australia could take its

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principal stand and that sort of thing and say, no, we're not going to allow it.

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You know, it's, it's one of those things, I, I, I don't know where I draw the line,

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you know, and Landon's actually saying if we're being consistent, then the U.

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S.

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flag should be missing from a few international competitions.

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True, he's right there, you know, if we are being consistent,

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we've got to actually keep the U.

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S.

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out.

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You know, it's one of those things.

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I'm not sure where you draw the line though.

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Hmm.

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Right.

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Whatley's joined.

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He's late again, but, all right.

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So that was, flags of Russians and Belarusians at the tennis in the Olympics.

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Scott, a bit on housing, came across, this came Crikey, which referred to a.

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Report by Mary Azizi and looking at housing and, let me just bring up,

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again, one of these slides on this one.

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So, um, looking at the screen, dear listener, is a chart.

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There's a blue line that's just a slow growth.

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There's a red line that accelerates quickly.

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The blue line is average weekly earnings and the orangey red line is house prices.

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And that sort of is a indication of How the house prices have accelerated,

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beyond how wages have accelerated.

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And, And that growth in it was around about 2001, was it?

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That's, when it really started to take off.

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Yeah.

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And that was ridiculous because that was also the time that the Howard

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government actually took away the old way of calculating capital gains tax and

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then did a 50 percent discount on it.

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Hmm.

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So since the 1990s, house prices have risen.

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from two and a half times annual household income to over six times today.

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So, I can remember, dear listener, when, my wife and I, I was, we weren't even

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married, we weren't even engaged, but she bought a house on a teacher's wage.

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I think the teacher's wage was maybe 18, 000, 20, 000, and that

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worker's cottage in, Newmarket.

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Right on the train line was like forty, forty five thousand, maybe

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it was fifty, something like that.

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Pretty much the sort of two and a half times her wage.

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And, you know, if the medium wage now is 80, 000, there's no way you can

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buy something like that for 200, 000.

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It just doesn't exist.

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So, still running into boomers who say, these young people today, they

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want everything fancy, they want the best house, and I just say to

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them, they'd buy a shitbox if it was available, a small workers cottage.

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They're just not there.

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So, so anyway, that was, that statistic in this report.

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And the other interesting part of this report was looking at What it's costing

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us, might be hard to read on that screen, but, the cost of the tax concessions,

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so negative gearing deductions and the capital gains tax exemption,

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remembering that capital gains is halved.

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it's a 50 percent discount.

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So, in 2021 2022, Scott, Is that the actual negative gearing tax deduction

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that the people are claiming, or is that the That's what it's costing

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the government in lost revenue by allowing negative gearing deductions.

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And in 2021 2022, it was 3.

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7 billion, and the capital gains tax was 4.

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7 billion and looking at the next year, so 2023 to 2024, the cost

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to the government of providing negative gearing deductions is 6.

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6 billion.

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And the capital gains tax is 4.

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7.

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So those two things together are worth more than 10 billion

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a year to the budget, Scott.

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It's one of those things, you know, negative gearing is a result of interest

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charges and all that sort of stuff.

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Now the interest rates have been rising, so that's going to result in

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higher losses for rental properties.

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So that will result in a larger amount of government Government

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missing out on revenue.

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So as, as prices have increased, gains have increased, you're right,

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the government is foregoing even more tax revenue, as a result of the

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boom that's effectively taken place.

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So, so we're at the point where the negative gearing And the

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capital gains tax is, is costing the budget 11 billion a year.

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Scott, I always think of things in terms of submarines, because it's

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hard to keep track of billions and what they're actually worth.

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So, you know, you could, you could buy 11 Japanese submarines for this.

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Yeah, well, the Jap ones, let's say they were one and a half.

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Okay, well then you'd buy seven of them.

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Yeah, we could buy six or seven Japanese subs.

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For the cost of one year of negative gearing and CGT deductions.

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Of course, we'd only get one fifth of an American sub, but that's

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a different matter altogether.

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just goes to show, like, we could have our subs and, be done with it for one

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year of forsaking these sorts of rorts.

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So, it's a huge hit to the budget.

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And, I hadn't seen those figures before, but, There we are.

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So, link in the show notes to the report and, the source for that projected

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cost, so the one I'm just mentioning now of 11 billion, that comes from

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the Parliamentary Budget Office.

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So, that's the source of where it comes from.

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So, yeah, okay.

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That's housing.

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That's the cost to Australia's budget.

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Nobody, of course, is going to be going to do anything about it because we're now

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locked into this disastrous system, but we are hooked on it, you know, as a country,

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we are hooked on real estate investment.

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Now, I know I've bought a couple of rental properties and all that

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sort of stuff, but I can afford it.

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So I've just bought them and, you know, if they do go up in value, well

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and true, that'll be great for me.

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But right now I'm just, I'm just counting the rent.

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Yeah, I'm probably going to make more money out of the place at South Ripley

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than I will at up here in Mackay.

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But anyway, it is what it is.

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John in the chat room says I'm against negative gearing, but that doesn't sound

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much compared to the total economy.

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I reckon it's a fair whack.

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What you've actually got to look at, John, is you could buy a

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lot of social housing for that.

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Yeah, exactly.

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And that would actually then take the heat out of the property

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market because you'd reduce the, you'd be reducing demand for it.

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So I just think that, what you've actually got to look at there is

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it's not a, in part of the total economy that is quite small, but.

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I can't imagine another tax deduction costing us that much.

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Yeah.

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Alright, that was housing.

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Scott, I'd like to talk about Donald Trump.

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And we mentioned last week, I think it was So this is probably going to

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take us about half an hour, isn't it?

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Well, I don't know.

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See how we go.

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last week Ron DeSantis has dropped out of the race.

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Yes, he dropped out.

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So I had the Iowa caucus and, really it's now pretty much down to just

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Trump and Nikki Haley, and she's just, it's only a matter of time because

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Trump's clearly going to win, so it's hard to imagine any other result.

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Just the Iowa caucus really confirmed that Trump is going to win.

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But, we mentioned last week about how the evangelical pastors were

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regretting their deal with Donald Trump.

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And people had kind of, they'd lost control of their flock, if you

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like, to Trump, who had taken over.

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So, just, this is something that I'm going to play a clip from Donald Trump's,

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Truth Social account, so this is something that he's played and also gets played

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at some of his, rallies, rallies.

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Thank you.

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That's the word, Scott.

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Yeah.

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I don't know if we can play the whole two minutes of it, two

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minutes 40, but we'll see how we go.

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The, the audio isn't fantastic, but that's just the way it's come.

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It's meant to have this scratchy sound in the back of it.

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But, hopefully you can hear it okay, we'll, Anyway, have a listen to some of

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this if you've got a, have a bucket close by in case you feel ill, is all I'd say.

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And on June 14th,

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1946, God looked down on his planned paradise and said, I need a caretaker.

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So God gave us Trump.

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God said, I need somebody willing to get up before dawn, fix this

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country, work all day, fight the Marxists, eat supper, then go to the

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Oval Office and stay past midnight at a meeting of the heads of state.

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So God made Trump.

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with arms, strong enough to wrestle the deep state, and yet gentle

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enough to deliver his own grandchild.

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I like that bit, strong enough to wrestle with the deep state, soft and gentle

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enough to deliver his own grandchild.

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Is he claiming to have delivered his own grandchild at some point?

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I have heard this before and I just thought to myself,

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maybe he is claiming that.

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Well, somebody's claiming he did.

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Anyway, I'll keep going with it.

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To ruffle the feathers, tame Cantankerous World Economic Forum, come home hungry,

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have to wait until the First Lady is done with lunch with friends, then tell the

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ladies to be sure and come back real soon.

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And mean it.

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So God gave us That was a little serious.

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Wait for the First Lady to have lunch, and then Welcome her friends back another time

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and mean it in all seriousness and this isn't this wasn't done ironically This

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was done as as a fawning sort of thing.

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It's a load of shit, isn't it?

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It's it's a strange clip.

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I'll keep going I need somebody who can shape an axe but wield a sword Who had

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the courage to step foot in North Korea?

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Who can make money from the tar of the sand turn liquid to gold?

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Who understands the difference between tariffs and inflation will finish

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his 40 hour, week by Tuesday, noon, but then put in another 72 hours.

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So God made Trump.

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God had to have somebody willing to go into the den of vipers,

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call out the fake news for their tongues as sharp as a serpents.

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The poison of vipers is on their lips.

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And yet stop.

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So, ah, that'll do.

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There's another minute or so of it, but you get the, you get the flavor of,

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I think that was, It sounds very much like a video and that sort of stuff

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that came out many, many years ago.

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It was something and God made farmers, wasn't it?

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I don't know.

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Yeah.

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But it's a real sort of ification of, of Donald Trump.

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Oh God.

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Yeah.

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As sort of a savior figure.

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Yeah.

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So, so that came associated with an article I was reading.

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in the New York Times.

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And I'll just read some excerpts from that article.

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So, Trump, his family and his supporters have been more than willing

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to claim that Trump is ordained by God for a special mission to restore

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America as a Christian nation.

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and in recent weeks, the former president posted a video called God Made Trump

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and he screened it at campaign rallies.

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And actually, the people who made it was, it was created by Dilly Meme

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Team, described by Ken Bessinger of the Times as an organized collective

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of video producers who call themselves Trump's online war machine.

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Anyway, they're the guys who created it.

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So Trump's, according to this article, Trump's evolution

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into a Jesus like figure.

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for some, but not all white evangelicals, began soon after he

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began his first presidential campaign.

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And there's a guy, a, David P.

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Gushie, Professor of Christian Ethics at Mercy University who explained

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that, some of Trump's Christian followers do appear to have grown to

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see him as a kind of religious figure.

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He is a saviour.

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I think it began with the sense that he was uniquely committed

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to saving them from their foes.

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Liberals, Democrats, Elites, Seculars, Illegal Immigrants, etc.

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And saving America from all that threatens it.

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In this sense, Gushy continued, a saviour does not have to be a

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good person, but just needs to fulfil his divinely appointed role.

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Trump is seen by many as actually having done so while president.

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This is an idea, Scott, that I hadn't really sort of paid attention

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to before, because you, you sort of look at it and go, how can

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these Christians Support this guy.

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okay, they did a deal.

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Get rid of Roe v.

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Wade and we'll do these other things for you.

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But the other part of that is that, you know, a sort of a saviour in

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a Biblical sense doesn't have to be a good person, just needs to

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fulfil his divinely appointed role.

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and this view is particularly strong in the Pentecostal wing of

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the conservative Christian world.

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is sometimes viewed there as an anointed leader sent by God.

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And, anointed here means set apart and especially equipped

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by God for a holy task.

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And sometimes the most unlikely people got anointed by God in the Bible.

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So Trump's unlikeliness for the role is actually evidence in favour

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that he's performing the role.

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And they go on to, talk about, let me just see here,

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oh, there's a particular character, um.

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Uh, yes.

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So, uh, white evangelicals refer not to Jesus, but to the Persian king Cyrus from

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the book of Isaiah in the Hebrew Bible.

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In that story, Cyrus is the model of an ungodly king.

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Who nonetheless frees a group of Jews who are held captive in Babel, in Babylon.

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So, sort of, trumps the fact that he is so unsavoury.

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Leads even more evidence for these people.

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But he is the real saviour, because in their biblical interpretations,

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that's quite appropriate, that the most unlikely people.

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Perform roles anointed by God, and that's actually a good thing.

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Wow.

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I think they're actually concentrating far too much on the Old Testament there.

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You know.

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But there's a means of justifying themselves.

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Yeah, I know.

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Yeah.

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Mmm.

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Um.

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Yeah.

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Now, Because, you know, I would have thought that if you're a Christian

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and that sort of stuff, you should have more of an emphasis on the

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New Testament than you would on the Old Testament, but apparently not.

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Hmm.

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So, yeah, there's an important idea here that I've just got to get to.

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so there's a guy, Jim Guth, political scientist at Furman

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University, an expert on the role of religion in politics, apparently.

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And by populist, he means more likely to favour strong leadership, to distrust

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government, to see the country on the wrong track, and to think that

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the majority should always rule.

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And Guth found that another trait of political populist is the willingness

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to ignore democratic civility.

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he says, we conduct, we constructed a rough politics score.

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from the following items, whether protesters deserve what they get if

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they hurt in demonstrating, whether the country would be better off

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if it got rid of rotten apples.

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and whether people are too sensitive about political discourse.

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And what they found was that with evangelical affiliation,

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evangelical identity, and biblical literalism, predicts that you'll

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agree with those assertions.

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Those, that rough politics.

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So the evangelicals like that sort of strong man, better off

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without those rotten apples.

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don't be so sensitive kind of attitudes and, and what he goes

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on to say is that essentially not only were the evangelical leaders

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doing a deal with Trump about Roe v.

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Wade, but it actually just aligned with evangelicals.

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Trump aligns with evangelicals.

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In that characteristic of wanting a strong man who, who gets rid of rotten

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apples and believes the majority should rule over the minority.

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So there was, there's that sort of characteristic trait of

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evangelicals, which let's face it, is a pretty ugly trait.

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It's incredibly ugly.

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And he's essentially saying that when you're studying religious

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groups, you'll find that trait.

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Over represent all those traits, overrepresented in evangelicals.

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And so Trump is actually a psychological match for these people.

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It's not just cutting a deal for Roe v.

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Wade and putting up with his shit, if you like.

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They actually like that shit, because it matches up with

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their psychological profile.

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With their view of the world.

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Yeah.

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So, so there you go.

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Add that to your kit bag of understanding of the Trump

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phenomena in American politics.

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yeah.

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Um, and, and really saying in that article, There's no scope in the

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evangelical movement to move towards a softer line, that any leaders who have

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tried to do it have basically been run out of town, run out of the evangelical

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world, and it's just got harder and harder in those populist policies.

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Is what he's saying in that article.

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So anyway, I thought that was an interesting one and

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makes all sense to you, Scott.

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Yeah, it does.

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I just hope that, I hope that it continues that, ever since Roe v

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Wade was overturned and that sort of stuff, we've seen in the States and

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that sort of stuff, that the number of Republicans being elected to those state

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legislatures has actually been reduced.

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Now, one would hope that that continues under the Federals and all that sort

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of stuff, and maybe Biden will actually win a thumping majority of the, of

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the, what's it called, the, well, whatever, whoever selects the President.

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Yeah.

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Electoral College.

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Yep.

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I hope that he does, but I'm not convinced that he will.

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You know, from the vantage, from here in Australia, I don't

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think it makes any difference whether Trump wins or Biden wins.

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Like, in fact, we're probably, as I said before, Trump sort of is less likely

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to get involved in, in sort of wars.

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Yeah, I agree, you know, cause he's more likely to pull out of stuff and

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less likely to I think he'll actually, cause he did actually, when they

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actually used, cruise missiles against Syria and that sort of stuff, he

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had, Xi Jinping was over visiting it.

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And he said, he actually quoted to him, he says, Oh, you know, we've

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just, we've just dispensed with those Syrians by using our cruise missiles.

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So I think that would actually be something that would appeal to him.

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He would actually use those sorts of things.

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I don't see him putting boots on the ground or anything else.

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Hmm.

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Just a The odd assassination here or there, he'd like

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that, he'd be up for that.

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I think he did that with the Iraqi general or something like that or an

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Iranian general or something like that.

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Yeah, there was probably that that was killed by a predator

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drone and that sort of stuff.

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But I think overall, Scott, like he'll cancel Orcus for sure.

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Yeah, for sure.

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And that's a good thing for us.

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But if, if you're looking at just policies, what policy can you

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think of that Trump would promote?

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that affects the rest of the world.

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I think you leave Ukraine on its own, I don't even think that he would have

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the balls to actually stand up to Vladimir Putin and say to him, look,

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you can keep Donetsk, but you've got to actually stay out of the rest of Ukraine.

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I think he'd just walk away entirely and just leave Ukraine to fend for itself,

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in which case Ukraine would collapse.

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Of course, you know, I can't really list any stated policies of Donald

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Trump and I wouldn't bother relearning them because whatever he states

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his policy is, it's all bullshit.

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No guarantee that's what he's going to do.

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So you just look at his past practice and, and think, well, he's probably

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going to do pretty much the same.

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And really, other than maybe being less inclined to be involved in wars.

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The actual day to day running of the country, ignoring all of the crazy

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personal shit, but just the way the country functioned, was it, is it

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any that much different policy wise?

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Well, it depends, it depends on actually what actually does on that, I can't think

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what it's called, but the Republicans do actually have a book and that sort of

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stuff that they've actually put together about what, what a first day Trump 2.

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0 will look like.

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And they've actually gone through and actually said that they're going

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to Sack the public servants and they're going to move into the from

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the jobs of life, that sort of stuff.

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Yeah.

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You know, he is gonna sack them and get in, put in sick offense, which would be

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ridiculous if they actually did that.

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Mm-Hmm.

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Here's, I honestly believe that we would have to be very concerned about that.

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Mm-Hmm.

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Here's a clip from a podcast, which has, now what's this guy called?

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green Greenwald . This is something from Land and Hard Bottom, he says, yeah.

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Putin has the Trump kiss tape.

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Trump will do whatever he's told to do.

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Could be the case.

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Yeah.

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Could be the case.

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So this is Glenn Greenwald from System Update podcast.

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This is talking about power and whether there's any difference between Trump.

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It's an interesting idea of why, I'll play it.

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I think this is quite instructive.

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Have a listen to this, Scott.

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Just to, to close this point about the dynamic of the race and the fact that

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the establishment in Washington is so clearly enthusiastically supportive

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of Nikki Haley, and when I asked Congressman Douglas that, I think he

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gave an interesting answer, which is absolutely right, that she represents

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business as usual, that there will be very little change to the way

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things are done in Washington if she's elected or if Joe Biden is re elected.

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That's what they look for more than anything.

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That's the reason they found so Trump threatening, Trump so threatening,

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not because of any one particular The view he expressed or policy he

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advocated, although I think secondarily it became about that as well, I just

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think in general, he represented this threat to continuity, this just

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subversive energy that threatened to shake up their very comfortable game.

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Washington is where their power and wealth comes from.

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They're very, very protective of that.

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And the person who sits nominally at least at the top of that pyramid

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Who doles out enormous amounts of opportunities and contracts for that

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person to be overtly hostile to sectors of the establishment is their biggest

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fear, way more than which party wins or loses, which ideology prevails.

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And Trump was such an outsider in terms of Washington, he had never

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occupied political office before.

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They've.

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Just feared the fact that he didn't rely on their standard group of lobbyists.

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They saw the writing on the wall that their normal consultants and others who

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were careerists would be out of power.

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It was the only time, Trump's election was, in the last 25 years, that Nikki

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Haley, that, that, Victoria Nuland did not occupy some important and

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influential foreign policy position.

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She was there in the Clinton administration.

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She then served as Dick Cheney's top foreign policy advisor

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throughout the Bush administration.

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She then became the ambassador to NATO when NATO was recklessly

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expanding eastward in a way that was threatening Russia.

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She then began running important parts of the State Department under

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Hillary Clinton and then was put in charge of Ukraine under John Kerry.

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Only when Trump was president for four years, she was out, Biden gets

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re elected, she's right back in, now she's been promoted once again to the

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highest level of the State Department.

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So just, in, in Victoria Nuland, you see the point I'm emphasizing,

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which is that these people thrive and prosper and maintain power no

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matter the outcome of political elections, as long as both parties

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nominate somebody who plays the game.

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And Nikki Haley is clearly somebody.

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Who, as much as any politician I've ever seen, is more than willing to

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play whatever game she's told to play in order to benefit herself.

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She's an absolute empty vessel, a puppet who believes in nothing.

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I thought that was a good example, the Victoria Newland one, where, didn't

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matter Republican or Democrat, she gets a job, gets a role, and It's only

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when Trump's in that she doesn't, and there'd be lots of people like that who

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suddenly lose their, their power, so.

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Yeah, for sure, it's just, it is one of those things, that is one

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area that you can actually point to Trump and actually say, well, that

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would be a good thing, because you wouldn't have this hawkish sort of

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NATO expansionism and everything else.

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That's only one thing, you know, the rest of it is a concern.

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You know, it's, it's like, you know, I think you're looking for

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Republican policies that don't exist.

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Because, you know, they, you know, and he said, you know, she's an empty vessel.

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Well, that could be argued about any Republican.

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They are all empty vessels.

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They haven't actually got to be, they haven't actually got anything

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that they actually hang their hat on or anything like this.

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Now, you know, Reagan, who I did disagree with a hell of a lot, you

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could actually at least hang his hat on something and say, well,

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this is what he actually believes and this is what he's going to do.

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This current lot, I don't think he could actually say the same thing.

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You know, it's Anyway, it's an interesting idea that, that the sort

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of, the establishment, is particularly keen for Nikki Haley over Donald Trump

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because it's a continuation of, of power for a lot of people who, who.

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Expect to use power, irrespective of whether Democrats or

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Republicans win, so, yeah.

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It's like one of those things, like, you know, as bad as George W.

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Bush's presidency was, at least It was something that you could hang your hat on

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and say, Well, I actually agree with that.

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Or I disagree with most of what he's saying, but there's a few things that do

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come up that you think, just as, okay, he's got us there, you know, but it's

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just one of those things with this idea.

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I just don't think we're going to get anything that any of us could agree on.

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You know, you're probably going to be very happy if he does actually cancel August.

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I'd be delighted.

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You've got to remember, you've got to remember that AUKUS

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stands for Australia, UK, and US.

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So, the UK could still actually sell us some nuclear submarines from that.

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Well, the whole deal would then be done, would be over, because it relies so much

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on the US as part of the whole shebang.

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It couldn't, it couldn't just Well, I think that, I think that Australia

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would be waiting until the 2040s for our next lot of submarines.

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Yeah.

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We're never going to get them.

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It's just We'd have to, we'd have to wait until the UK was ready to produce

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them and that sort of stuff, then we'd end up buying them from there.

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Yeah.

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Yeah.

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Yeah, and we've still got to work out what the hell we're going

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to do with the spent fuel and everything else that comes from them.

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Mm.

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Because the UK hasn't actually decommissioned any of their

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submarines that they've ever had.

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I think they're just sitting in a dock somewhere.

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Yeah, they are.

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Rusting away.

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Yeah, they're rusting away.

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They're keeping the, they're keeping the power and everything on them and that sort

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of stuff so they don't actually blow up.

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Mm.

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But it's just one of those things.

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It's, they haven't worked out how to safely dispose of the Nuclear reactors.

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Yeah, so anyway, Trump's also got news caught by the bulls.

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So according to an article from Crikey, with Lachlan in charge, they're sort

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of recognizing that their audience that they want to try and keep are

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Trump lovers and therefore they have to comply with Trump demands and

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DeSantis, Ron DeSantis accused Fox, of just being Trump's Praetorian Guard.

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And he said they don't hold Trump accountable because they're worried

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about losing viewers and they don't want to have their ratings go down.

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And his complaint followed Fox's pathetic surrender to Trump earlier in the week by

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agreeing to a live town hall discussion.

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At a time and in a format demanded by the former president to spike the

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official Republican debate on CNN.

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So, basically they agreed to Trump's terms and, they're rolling over

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and, Kowtowing to Trump because he controls their audience.

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So just like the evangelical pastors, News Corp have created

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a monster that now controls their flock and they're having to now.

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do his bidding, so.

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Well, one would hope that the lawsuits and everything like that against, against

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Fox News is actually going to actually control their behaviour next time

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when the election needs to be called.

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Yes, they won't be doing the same thing in terms of the vote counting,

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but there's all the soft sort of stuff of assisting Trump along

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the way, is what they'll be doing.

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So, yeah, Yep.

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Just away from Trump now, UK poll.

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So, there was a YouGov survey, 14, 000 people, extrapolating the results,

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and predicts the Conservatives will retain only 169 seats, which is 196

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fewer than they hold at the moment.

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Then Labor would take 385, so.

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Um, a big wipeout of the Conservatives in the UK seems all but certain, Scott.

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Yeah, it does.

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We're just going to have to wait and see, you know, because like Joe was saying last

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week that there's hope that the Liberal Democrats will end up with a balance

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of power, but it doesn't sound like it.

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Hey, Scott, you should, you know, I did that one on the book by

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Yasha Monk about identity politics.

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So Yasha Monk has a podcast and I was just listening to it today.

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I'm just going to try and find you the name of it.

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it's called The Good Fight and he just did, an episode on Taiwan.

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Interviewed a guy who's, some university professor, I think, or

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something like that, in Taiwan.

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So, anyway, gave a good background of, of Taiwan's history and where they're

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at in terms of the recent elections.

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So, um, so, you should listen to that, because I know you're keen on visiting

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Taiwan at some stage in the near future.

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Okay, Albert Wu.

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Yeah, that's it.

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So have a look at that.

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That was an interesting one.

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in the John Menardew blog, there was an article by Wang Wen, a

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professor and executive dean of the Chongyang Institute for Financial

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Studies, Renmin University of China.

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So he's mainly in China.

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he was basically saying that, um, uh, actually I'll just

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quote some of the article here.

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Some surveys show that 51 percent of young people in Taiwan like to use

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Mainland apps such as TikTok and Red.

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They envy the mainland's high speed rail system that can zip people

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across the country for business or travel or just for the weekend.

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They see new breathing space with the rapid rise in standards of

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living and the great potential for continued economic progress.

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he says, that is why two of the three parties in Sunday's election made it clear

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they do not support Taiwan independence or even talking about reunification.

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And, he says, it seems that the Chinese economy will surpass

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the United States around 2035.

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Dear listener, if you use Purchasing Power, Purchasing Power Parity?

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China's already overtaken.

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They've already overtaken the US.

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Yeah, and he says in the future the envy and worship young people in Taiwan have

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for the mainland will only strengthen.

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in the past Taiwanese people have had a sense of superiority over their higher

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living standards, but now the GDP of its west coast neighbor, Fujian province,

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exceeds Taiwan's and he says Taiwan's standard of living was 10 times higher

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than Fujian's 30 years ago, but now many Taiwanese are reflecting on why their

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island is slipping as Fujian grows even though they share a regional culture.

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This is my tip Scott, in the long term.

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It's just economically, the Taiwanese will want to join China because their

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economy will be crushed by various forces.

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And if that, if that is something the Taiwanese people want to actually do,

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then they will accept one country, two systems, but they haven't shown a great

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deal of acceptance of that because they've seen how one country, two

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systems has played out for Hong Kong.

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You know, it's, yeah, it'll take a while, but you know, I'm not saying

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this is going to happen next year.

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But it's, it's, this is a decades, over the coming decades, over

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the next 20, 30, 40, 50 years.

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Yeah, which China can wait that out because they, you know, they could wait

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that out and all that sort of stuff.

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Yeah.

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Do I actually see the Taiwanese people accepting that very gracefully

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and all that sort of stuff?

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No, but I could actually see it happening at some stage in the future.

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Wasn't it one of Mao's generals who was asked, what did you think

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of, what do you think of what happened in the French Revolution?

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And he said it's too early to say.

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I think it was one of Mao's generals.

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So.

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It really wouldn't surprise me because they do have that, they do have that

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very long term view of the world.

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And they just think, you know, they honestly believe that their civilization

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has been there for thousands of years and all that type of thing.

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So they honestly think that they are the longest serving country in the world.

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Yeah, so Landon Hard Bottom had made that comment about, about the fist tape

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and, and Russia controlling, Trump.

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And just looking at the chat, they're saying that Landon's

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comment didn't survive in YouTube.

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Oh, it didn't show up.

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Oh, really?

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It got kicked straight up on our screen, but not on the tube.

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So, fair enough.

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I'm a bit worried that this, for the second time, Landon

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might cause a censorship.

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One of our episodes.

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I might have to make this one a private one.

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Yeah, I don't get censored by YouTube again So yeah, because it was Landon

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who his joke about The laser beams.

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What's Charlie that got us into trouble last time?

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That was Landon's fault again, so yeah Yeah, anyway, just quickly back to China

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still and their economy In the Chinese car industry, John Pilger, recently deceased,

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he nailed a set of crucial reasons for the Western world maintaining such distorted,

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low success expectations of China.

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Pilger argued convincingly that the Global West and its mainstream Western

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media Unceasingly demonise Beijing because today China has matched

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America at its own great game of capitalism, and that is unforgivable.

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He says the same Western media has played a new yellow peril role in turning the

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extraordinary industrious community that is the real China into a fantasy based

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monster trying to take over the world.

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And in less than a decade, the good China's been airbrushed and

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the bad China has replaced it.

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Scott, I keep recalling how Tony Abbott invited Xi Jinping and he

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spoke in the Australian Parliament.

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And it was all happy days.

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We love China.

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How can we possibly make things even stronger?

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Julia Gillard had organised joint military exercises.

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And then Trump comes along and says, China bad, China bad, and everybody followed.

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Yeah, and Morrison followed and all that sort of stuff.

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And here we are.

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That's, that's where we're at.

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And in that time, China did nothing!

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Nothing.

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Oh, that's true.

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They haven't done anything, you know, except they did fly very closely

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to Taiwan and that sort of stuff.

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They have forced the Taiwanese to expend a hell of a lot of aviation

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fuel and that type of thing to keep it, to keep a check on their borders.

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They have also, you know, done live fire exercises very close to Taiwan.

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You know, it's one of those things.

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I do honestly believe that Taiwan is an independent country though.

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Yeah.

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In the scheme of things, thinking Israel and Gaza, nothing.

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China's done nothing.

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Anyway.

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Yeah, I know.

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Fair enough.

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Still in the same article, China is now the world's biggest

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car exporter, electric, hybrid and conventional combined.

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It's ahead of Japan and Germany as a car exporter.

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Five years ago, China only shipped 25 percent of Japanese automotive

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exports, and now It's the world's largest, ahead of Japan and Germany.

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Chinese maker BYD, Build Your Dreams, is now outselling Tesla

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globally with pure battery cars.

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Huge success story.

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Yeah, and actually, Deepthroat has just bought a BYD.

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Did he?

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Yes.

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Ah, was he happy with it?

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Well, no, he was happy with it when he, when he sent me an email about it.

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Okay, there you go.

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It's one of those things, I just think to myself that, eventually

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we're going to have, well, if we can't get hydrogen up and that sort

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of stuff, this country will have long, What's the word I'm groping for?

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Long distance EVs.

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You know, we will actually get there one day.

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It's going to take a little bit of time, but we'll get there one day.

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Or, we could have met with hydrogen vehicles.

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I don't know.

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But the internal combustion engine has got a lifespan on it.

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Except for dickheads like me who've got a 1969 MGB in their garage.

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Right.

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You know?

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A 1969?

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Yeah, a 1969 MGB.

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Wow.

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I don't know.

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Okay, just briefly, you know how we had apparently participated

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in the bombing of Yemen?

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Yeah.

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And the way we found out about it, dear listener, is the Americans told us.

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Our own government didn't tell us that it was involved in the background in

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assistance with the US bombing Yemen.

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We had to find out from the Americans.

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So as Anne Pavitt says in the John Menendee blog, is

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this a constitutional crisis?

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On Friday, 12th of January, 2024, a USA official spokesman announced

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that Australia was to provide a support role for the UK and USA

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troops who were about to attack Yemen.

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No announcement had been made to this effect by the Australian Government.

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The Australian people had to wait for the next day to know definitely if, in

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fact, such a decision had been made.

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How is it possible for the USA spokesperson to announce an Australian

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policy decision on going to war against another sovereign state, no

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less, before it had been declared by the Australian government?

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Oh, she's got a point there.

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Yeah.

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You know, I think our government should have actually come forward

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and actually said, look, Australia is providing a support role

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right now for the UK and the US.

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It's just so commonplace to bomb somebody.

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It's one of those things, I just think to myself that I agree with you that

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the, you know, the war powers and that sort of stuff should be actually a whole,

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should involve the entire parliament, both houses, not just the cabinet.

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Yeah.

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You know, so you'd actually have a debate about it in Parliament,

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which the Greens would be the only ones that would be opposed to it.

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And, you know, but at least it would be out there and that sort of stuff.

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You'd have some argument before you actually declared it.

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Yes.

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Yeah.

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So, um, it's, it's extraordinary.

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I mean, we should bring both houses of parliament together before we assist,

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before we bomb any other country or assist our allies in bombing another country.

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You would think it's such a serious thing that we could at least gather together.

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I mean, Scott, they're bringing together, the Labor caucus.

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It's all gathering in parliament.

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Even though Parliament's not sitting to discuss the sort of cost of living crisis.

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Well, we can do that, but we can't bring everyone together to

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talk about whether we're going to bomb another country or not.

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Yeah, exactly.

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It's like those, you know, when the cabinet, when the cabinet papers

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were declassified and that sort of stuff, because they were 20 years old.

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That was over John Howard's decision to And it was basically John Howard's

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decision to invade Iraq, you know, he, it was him and Peter Costello and a few

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others and that sort of stuff that were involved in a very, well, not an informal

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chat because it was actually minuted.

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And they just said, well, we're going to go and do it.

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And I thought to myself, you know, there was never any real discussion of that.

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You know, there was, there was probably an argument for getting involved

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with the intelligence that had, had been provided to us, which has proven

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since then to be false, that there was an argument that we should be

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involved, but that was an argument that they should have been prepared to

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prosecute publicly, but they weren't.

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Simon Crane was prepared to say.

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He was the Labor Leader the Opposition, he said that I support

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you but I don't support you going.

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Mm, so good on him.

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Ah, Scott.

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I got some other stuff there but I reckon that's an hour.

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And I'm trying to keep it to an hour, these podcasts now, so we

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can put some more Yemen stuff on the back burner until next week.

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I think Joe's back next week, dear listener.

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Temporary UK correspondent will be back.

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yeah.

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If you've got any interesting articles or things going on, send them to me

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and they might make it on the podcast.

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And if the people in the chat room, thanks for your contribution.

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I think this episode I'm going to, I think I'm going to make it private or

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something just so that YouTube doesn't.

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Give me another censorship tap on the shoulder.

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It'd be a real shame to lose it.

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So, yeah, I think, I think I will delete it just for that reason.

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Audio only.

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Alrighty.

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Thanks for listening, dear listener.

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We'll be back next week.

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Bye for now.

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And thanks very much for tuning in.

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Bye now.

About the Podcast

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The Iron Fist and the Velvet Glove
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