full

Episode 398 - We should be angry

In this episode we discuss:

(00:00) Intro

(04:50) Echidna Strategy

(17:44) Brics

(21:52) Newspoll

(28:38) Property Stuff Again

(35:22) Media and Propaganda

(49:23) Ukraine Update

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We have a website. www.ironfistvelvetglove.com.au

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Transcript
Trevor:

We need to talk about ideas, good ones and bad ones.

Trevor:

We need to learn stuff about the world.

Trevor:

We need an honest, intelligent, thought provoking, and entertaining

Trevor:

review of what the hell happened on this planet in the last seven days.

Trevor:

We need to sit back and listen to the Iron Fist and the Velvet Glove.

Trevor:

Yes, welcome back to you listener, episode 398, closing in on that 400 number.

Trevor:

Holy hell.

Trevor:

Yeah, I'm, goodness me.

Trevor:

Yes, I'm Trevor.

Trevor:

A k a.

Trevor:

The Iron Fist with me as always these days.

Trevor:

Scott, the Velvet, Glove.

Scott:

Good day, Trevor.

Scott:

Good day listeners.

Scott:

I'm gonna wonder what the hell I've done with my life over

Scott:

the last six or seven years.

Trevor:

Well, some of it you went walkabout Scott, but that's okay.

Trevor:

You came back.

Scott:

Yeah, I did go walkabout.

Scott:

You know?

Trevor:

Yeah.

Trevor:

So if you're in the chat room, say hello.

Trevor:

Don's already in the chat room saying hello.

Trevor:

Good on you, Don.

Trevor:

This is a bit like old times and there's no Joe tonight.

Trevor:

He's got a function that he's at.

Trevor:

So it's just, just you and me, Scott.

Trevor:

It's just like back in the very, very early days.

Trevor:

Yeah.

Scott:

In the very, very early days, we used to record everything and send

Scott:

it over to you to update and that type

Trevor:

of thing.

Trevor:

Mm-hmm.

Trevor:

Yeah.

Trevor:

I remember

Scott:

you once saved me from getting sued.

Scott:

Yes.

Trevor:

Yep.

Trevor:

Delete stuff.

Trevor:

It might be defamatory.

Trevor:

Yeah.

Trevor:

Yes.

Trevor:

Yeah.

Trevor:

Hey I was at a function of Father's Day function and my daughter had given

Trevor:

me a Father's Day present, which was a black t-shirt with white writing.

Trevor:

And the writing on it was ask me about my podcast.

Trevor:

And so, so I had to wear that at this Father's Day function.

Trevor:

And of course people asked me about my podcast.

Trevor:

I met a guy called Mark, he's in the building down the cooling gutter there.

Trevor:

And and he, I think I started listening to the podcast.

Trevor:

And anyway, he said, well, why the name The Iron Fist and the Velvet Glove?

Trevor:

And I guess we haven't said that for a while as to why it's that name.

Trevor:

So I was, I came up with

Scott:

that, I think it was.

Scott:

Yeah, I know.

Scott:

But I also said at first though, when there was, there was a criticism

Scott:

or something like that, that was going around the secular party.

Scott:

And I said, you know, might I suggest that Trevor wraps his

Scott:

Iron Fist in a Velvet Glove?

Scott:

Did you?

Scott:

Okay.

Trevor:

I don't remember that, but yeah.

Trevor:

But I, I can remember a review of Penfolds Grange wine, red Wine, which

Trevor:

is notorious as being a very, very strong, full blooded, a full bodied

Trevor:

wine described by one of the wine connoisseurs as an Iron Fist in a

Trevor:

Velvet Glove, meaning it was incredibly powerful, strong flavor, but with a

Trevor:

softness coating it around the edges.

Trevor:

And, and so I'd like to think that I'm the Iron Fist with

Trevor:

the hard, powerful opinions.

Trevor:

And you, Scott, come in, sit on the fence with your Velvet

Trevor:

Glove and just smooth things over and go, yeah, maybe, maybe not.

Trevor:

Yeah, not so sure about that.

Scott:

Just little, yeah.

Trevor:

Softening, softening the edges a little bit.

Scott:

It is becoming increasingly difficult to disagree with

Scott:

you on the United States.

Scott:

Right?

Scott:

Yep.

Scott:

You know, it's one of those things like, you know, that it's in notes and

Scott:

that sort of stuff you've sent through that is very much in my wheelhouse

Scott:

where I've said numerous times that the Americans have had some very

Scott:

disastrous foreign policy blunders.

Scott:

Mm-hmm.

Scott:

And this was their record of their, of their foreign policy blunders, you know?

Scott:

Yeah.

Scott:

I'm

Trevor:

a little bit worried.

Trevor:

And that was, sorry, did you wanna go on?

Trevor:

Sorry.

Trevor:

No, go on.

Trevor:

Oh, just the, this guy Mark I met, he, he's an American as well.

Trevor:

And so, so he is a new listener.

Trevor:

I'm thinking.

Trevor:

Whoops.

Trevor:

I'm sorry, mark, if I, there's gonna probably be a fair, I mean, every podcast,

Trevor:

every episode has a fair amount of anti-American sentiment in it these days.

Trevor:

'cause let's face it, America's up to a lot of mischief.

Trevor:

So I apologize if you are.

Trevor:

I didn't apologize.

Trevor:

It's just, just prepare yourself for some anti-American stuff,

Trevor:

is what I'm probably saying.

Trevor:

James is in the chat room.

Trevor:

He's saying hello as well.

Trevor:

So what are we gonna talk about?

Trevor:

We're gonna talk about the Iki a strategy, which was a, a book

Trevor:

that's come out by a right wing commentator about orcas, essentially.

Trevor:

We're going to be talking about bricks expansion and a little bit more about

Trevor:

property and Sydney property and intergenerational issues, bit about the

Trevor:

media and propaganda, maybe an update or another view on the Ukraine, just to clear

Trevor:

up whether it was provoked or unprovoked.

Trevor:

See how we end up.

Trevor:

So, so yeah, we'll get started.

Trevor:

And Scott, there's a book come out by a guy called Sam Rodine,

Trevor:

r o double g e v double e n.

Trevor:

Or the, and I have already ordered it.

Trevor:

Have you?

Trevor:

Right.

Trevor:

I ordered that

Scott:

because I heard about it on the, one of the podcasts I listen to every day.

Scott:

Mm-hmm.

Scott:

I couldn't remember if it was the A, B, C, or 7:00 AM who was doing it.

Scott:

Mm-hmm.

Scott:

And I thought to myself, that sounds very interesting.

Scott:

Mm-hmm.

Scott:

Now you, so

Trevor:

I, I thought I would read that.

Trevor:

I read a review by Gareth Evans, former cabinet minister during the Hawke

Trevor:

Keating Governments, I think he might've been foreign affairs at that time.

Trevor:

I think he might've been.

Trevor:

So he's reviewed the book.

Trevor:

So the thing about Sam INE is this guy's from the right wing camp.

Trevor:

He's a member of the Lowey Institute.

Trevor:

Can't get, that's a good solid right wing credential, credentials right there.

Trevor:

Mm-hmm.

Trevor:

Lemme just see if there's something else about this guy's background.

Trevor:

So.

Trevor:

He he's no hardcore lefty.

Trevor:

He's a senior officer of national assessments, intelligence analyst.

Trevor:

He was a senior office of National Assessments Intelligence

Trevor:

analyst before joining the Lowe Institute 15 years ago ago.

Trevor:

And he described himself entirely plausibly as a liberal conservative.

Trevor:

So he's from the right and he's taken a shot at the whole arrangement with

Trevor:

America in terms of our defense.

Trevor:

And so that's the, the sort of the main thing to come out of the talk

Trevor:

about his book and what he's done is he's done a meticulous analysis

Trevor:

of the factors in issue here for the United States, China, and Australia.

Trevor:

And he's basically saying that, At the, by the way, dear listener, Scott's got

Trevor:

a frog just outside his window, which you'll probably hear in the background.

Trevor:

We're not recording this in a park, but in the, in the recorded audio, I'm

Trevor:

gonna try and get rid of that frog, but I'm starting to wonder whether

Trevor:

I'll be able to be able to, yeah.

Trevor:

Anyway, there is a frog outside his window.

Trevor:

Anyway, back to this book.

Trevor:

What he's saying is that the u s A would not enter a fight with China

Trevor:

because it's not in its interest that it would cut and run because why spend

Trevor:

money and people on this part of the planet when you can just retreat back

Trevor:

over the Pacific and be quite safe.

Trevor:

So he's essentially saying, Australia, don't rely on America for help, because

Trevor:

if push comes to shove, They won't necessarily back out, it would be

Trevor:

quite likely that they'll back out.

Trevor:

The second part that he makes, the point that he makes is that's okay that we

Trevor:

should operate on the basis that we won't get assistance from America because it's

Trevor:

really difficult for China to attack and invade Australia because guess what?

Trevor:

We're a long way away and there's a lot of water between China and Australia and it's

Trevor:

just, there's plenty difficult, there's

Scott:

plenty of opportunity to sink in arm Marta that's on its way south.

Scott:

Yeah.

Trevor:

So, well you might be, you might be able to sink every ship, but you're

Trevor:

gonna get a hell of a lot of them.

Trevor:

Yeah.

Trevor:

I think in his book he quotes that London is closer to China than Australia.

Trevor:

Yeah.

Trevor:

In Sydney is to Beijing.

Trevor:

Sydney, yeah.

Trevor:

So, we just don't sort of think of it that way, but it's a useful point.

Trevor:

And basically the Adina strategy is that we should be defensive like an a kidner

Trevor:

that an a kidner isn't really capable of taking territory or attacking other,

Trevor:

other sort of animals, but it can set up a defense so that it's not attacked and

Trevor:

that we should do this close to home.

Trevor:

We shouldn't be sailing around in the, in the South China Sea, away from home.

Trevor:

We should set up our defense here.

Trevor:

And and that's sort of the essence of what he's saying.

Trevor:

And it's coming from a right winger, which makes it the story and, and just, he's

Trevor:

making the point that we can actually stop China if we put our minds to it.

Trevor:

And Scott, do you remember?

Trevor:

For listeners of this podcast who have been with us for a long

Trevor:

time, if you've been with us since this is Old News, February, 2018.

Trevor:

Dear listener, I had Han two on this podcast who's a mate

Trevor:

of mine and Exair Force, ex lecturer in defense in Indonesia.

Trevor:

And he basically gave the argument about how hard it is to conduct a mari, a

Trevor:

maritime invasion of another country, particularly a country like Australia

Trevor:

that's got a few weapons up at sleeve.

Trevor:

And that that we'd have a very good chance of repelling China if they tried to do it.

Trevor:

And so that's not news to listeners of this podcast who've been with us five

Trevor:

and a half years ago, but it might be news for other people who've just

Trevor:

read comments about Roger Be's book.

Trevor:

We go

Scott:

now, Landon, yes, the Japanese did get close.

Scott:

Mm-hmm.

Scott:

But they were also rampaging through a very unbel, undeveloped

Scott:

part of the world at the time.

Scott:

Mm-hmm.

Scott:

Whereas these days, for them to make it down, for them to make it for

Scott:

the Chinese, to make it down near, they'd have to get through Vietnam.

Scott:

They'd have to get through Taiwan.

Scott:

They'd have to get through all these other modern countries

Scott:

before they got too close to us.

Trevor:

Mm-hmm.

Trevor:

Mm-hmm.

Trevor:

And maybe this time we wouldn't ascend all of our troops off over

Trevor:

into Europe or something like that.

Trevor:

Kidding.

Trevor:

Exactly.

Scott:

You know, that, that is the whole point.

Scott:

Like, you know, we are not going to be off if there is gonna be

Scott:

a war in this part of the world.

Scott:

It's gonna be very much concentrated in this part of the world.

Scott:

Mm-hmm.

Scott:

I don't believe that Russia or anything like that is gonna pull off anything.

Scott:

Well, they've already, they've bitten off more Ukraine than they can chew.

Scott:

Mm-hmm.

Scott:

So, you know, I don't think that they're gonna actually.

Scott:

Poke the NATO bear too hard.

Scott:

It's one of those things.

Scott:

I think that if there is gonna be a, if there is gonna be a

Scott:

conflict in our neck of the woods, it's going to be contained Mm.

Scott:

To

Trevor:

Taiwan.

Trevor:

Mm-hmm.

Scott:

As to whether or not the Yanks actually do put up a fight over

Trevor:

that, I don't know.

Trevor:

Mm-hmm.

Trevor:

I don't think, honestly, China's best move will just be to, to take over the

Trevor:

industries that Taiwan is good at, chips and stuff, and basically force Taiwan into

Trevor:

a situation where for economic survival, they'll wanna be part of China 'cause

Trevor:

their economy's being crushed by China.

Trevor:

That, that would be the smart one.

Trevor:

Yeah.

Trevor:

For China to do it.

Scott:

That would be the smart way to do it.

Scott:

But it's one of those things, I just don't see that the Republic of China

Scott:

and the People's Republic of China are ever gonna be the same again.

Scott:

Mm-hmm.

Scott:

You know, they're just, Well, it's just one of those things, the history

Scott:

of it is, is so divergent and the type of thing that I just don't think

Scott:

they're ever gonna be able to mm-hmm.

Scott:

Be the same

Trevor:

country again.

Trevor:

Mm-hmm.

Trevor:

Anyway, there was a review of Roger vin's book in the Rationale by Paul Monk.

Trevor:

I had an issue with Paul Monk before when he wrote a review

Trevor:

of who's that pompous author.

Trevor:

British guy often talks Douglas Murray, and he was waxing lyrical

Trevor:

about wonderful Douglas Murray.

Trevor:

He's just a prick.

Trevor:

And so I had a bit of a, a sort of a review of the review being

Trevor:

quite critical on that one.

Trevor:

So, Paul Monk's done a review of Roger v's book, you know, positive, but it's

Trevor:

kinda laced with anti-China sentiment.

Trevor:

I think there's an example of the subtle propaganda that we're subjected to.

Trevor:

Did you hear?

Trevor:

Lord Mayor Tate on the Gold Coast, he wants the Commonwealth Games on

Trevor:

the Gold Coast, and he said one of his reasons was it'll be a good sign

Trevor:

of faith for our Pacific neighbors so that they will be friendly with

Trevor:

us and won't move over to the evil Chinese in terms of friendship stakes.

Trevor:

So his, his rationale for having the, the, the Commonwealth gains

Trevor:

on the Gold Coast was as an, as a, so he wants a move against Chinese

Trevor:

sentiment in Pacific Island countries.

Scott:

He wants to, he, he wants to basically reuse those Commonwealth

Scott:

game stuff that was set up last

Trevor:

time.

Trevor:

Was it?

Trevor:

Probably, I mean, they've got, who knows?

Trevor:

It could be quite a legitimate argument to say, we've got all

Trevor:

the stuff here, let's run it.

Trevor:

We can do it for low cost and it'll be worthwhile, but not because.

Trevor:

It will carry favor with Pacific Island nations who might otherwise swap their

Trevor:

allegiance to China, for God's sake, this is just said with a straight face on

Trevor:

the Gold Coast News Bulletin, as if that was a perfectly legitimate thing to say.

Trevor:

Mm-hmm.

Trevor:

But, you know, in in the review of the article here he says, this is Paul Monk.

Trevor:

I've known Roger ve for 25 years and have, and have observed his

Trevor:

career in the intelligence world and at Lowey since it started.

Trevor:

He's quietly thoughtful, whereas many of those who have dissented from

Trevor:

orcas come across as Rankly, left winging anti-American, and even pro.

Trevor:

None of these things can be said of him.

Trevor:

He says, as if it's a bad thing to be Rankly, left winging

Trevor:

anti-American and perhaps pro Beijing.

Trevor:

It's kind of.

Trevor:

Anti China sentiment that just, it's thrown around everywhere.

Trevor:

You know, you might have very good reasons as a rational person to be rancorous

Trevor:

rancorous, meaning a rancorous argument or person is full of bitterness and anger.

Trevor:

You might be left wing and you might be anti-American, but there's

Trevor:

a perfectly rational decision.

Trevor:

He says it as if it's sort of a bad thing.

Trevor:

And there was an article again in John Manitou blog by Dr.

Trevor:

Mike Gilligan.

Trevor:

He's worked for 20 years in defense policy and evaluating military proposals

Trevor:

for development, including time in the Pentagon, on military balances in Asia.

Trevor:

And he says, like Paul Keating, Australians should be angry.

Trevor:

Australia's security is at risk.

Trevor:

No other nation is so foolish.

Trevor:

So self delusional, so divorced from the basics of statecraft nor so

Trevor:

feckless with its citizen security in pursuit of America's objectives.

Trevor:

Shouldn't we be white hot with rage at this government's

Trevor:

abdication of sovereignty?

Trevor:

Good point.

Scott:

That's the only thing I don't understand with this is the

Scott:

abdication of sovereignty part.

Scott:

I understood exactly what he is saying there, but not the abdication

Scott:

of sovereignty be because I don't see how that you would end up

Scott:

abdicating your sovereignty if you, if you take up this August

Trevor:

deal, we are relying on the Americans to supply submarines when

Trevor:

every indication is they won't be able to supply and we're also gonna be relying on

Trevor:

them to operate and maintain them and to teach us how to, and until the submarines

Trevor:

are built and ready for us, they're supposed to lend a some, which they.

Trevor:

Plenty of Americans have indicated may not do, we don't have spare

Trevor:

submarines because guess what?

Trevor:

Most of them are in a dock somewhere being maintained.

Trevor:

'cause they invariably break down.

Trevor:

So the Americans have said, we don't have spare submarines to give these

Trevor:

Aussies in the interim or at any time, and we'll be lucky to make enough

Trevor:

for ourselves, let alone Australia.

Trevor:

And even if we deliver some to Australia, it'll be the Youngs

Trevor:

who'll be helping us maintain them.

Trevor:

That's the abdication of sovereignty.

Trevor:

We will not be guaranteed possession of submarines that we own in the

Trevor:

short term that we can control ourselves, that we would if we were

Trevor:

buying off the shelf Japanese or German subs or something like that.

Trevor:

That's, that's the, the abdication of sovereignty that he's.

Trevor:

There we go.

Trevor:

Hence the title of this episode.

Trevor:

We should be angry.

Trevor:

If you're not angry, you are not paying attention.

Trevor:

Hmm.

Trevor:

Right.

Trevor:

Ricks Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa.

Trevor:

It's been going for a while.

Trevor:

They had a meeting recently in South Africa.

Trevor:

Putin had to log in via Zoom because he can't risk international.

Trevor:

More criminal.

Trevor:

Yeah.

Trevor:

He can't risk international travel.

Trevor:

And they agreed to admit to the Brix Alliance, Argentina, Egypt,

Trevor:

Ethiopia, Iran, United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia have been invited

Trevor:

to join, and there's a whole bunch of others who want to join this block.

Trevor:

Dear listener, this is one of the most significant moves in foreign

Trevor:

relations in a long, long time.

Trevor:

I.

Trevor:

When you see Russia, Iran, United, Arab Emirates, and Saudi Arabia.

Trevor:

What do you think, Scott?

Scott:

Well, they are traditionally American, sort of, well, not the Iranian

Scott:

so much, but the u a e and Saudi Arabia are traditionally on the American side.

Scott:

Mm-hmm.

Scott:

So they've clearly decided to raise their middle finger to the

Trevor:

United States.

Trevor:

Mm-hmm.

Trevor:

I think oil.

Trevor:

Mm.

Trevor:

I don't know what percentage of the world all supply those

Trevor:

guys control, but it's a lot.

Trevor:

Well, that they'd have the most of it.

Trevor:

Mm-hmm.

Trevor:

Yeah.

Trevor:

And that is the

Scott:

big, and besides the Yanks, have the, the Yanks have already moved

Scott:

into oil, self-sufficiency that they produce by shale oil and that sort

Scott:

of thing, so they no longer need to rely on the Saudis as much as they

Trevor:

used to.

Trevor:

Yep.

Trevor:

But the whole point is, so these countries are going to be dealing

Trevor:

in oil and not in US dollars.

Trevor:

It's exactly.

Trevor:

And that will disconnect the US dollar from the oil, which will

Trevor:

basically cause its value to decline.

Trevor:

Because at the moment, every country that doesn't have its own oil supply

Trevor:

has to buy oil using US dollars.

Trevor:

Dollars.

Trevor:

They have to therefore get them from somewhere.

Trevor:

It creates a demand for US dollars that is artificial, that

Trevor:

artificially supports the US dollar.

Trevor:

It's been a huge advantage for the US since they moved

Trevor:

away from the gold standard.

Trevor:

And the other part about this, Scott, is kudos to China and the other operators

Trevor:

there, forgetting Iran and Saudi Arabia to join something together.

Trevor:

Mm-hmm.

Trevor:

And the same sort of thing.

Trevor:

Yeah.

Trevor:

'cause these guys are sworn enemies.

Trevor:

Shia.

Trevor:

Mm-hmm.

Trevor:

Shia and.

Scott:

Sunni, Shiia, Shi and Shia?

Trevor:

No.

Trevor:

Isn't Saudi Arabia Sunni and Iran?

Trevor:

Yeah, sorry.

Trevor:

Shia.

Trevor:

Shia.

Trevor:

Yeah.

Trevor:

Yeah.

Trevor:

So to get those two together into a group quite amazing.

Trevor:

Really quite amazing.

Trevor:

Can't be understated.

Trevor:

So there's a whole bunch of countries lining up to join.

Trevor:

And as these transactions for all between these countries, they'll more

Trevor:

and more do transactions in their own currencies, not using US dollars.

Trevor:

And and it will, I thought

Scott:

they were saying that they were gonna be using the Chinese Uran, weren't

Trevor:

they?

Trevor:

From Austral ions?

Trevor:

Not necessarily transactions.

Trevor:

Some For some transactions, yes, but for others, no.

Trevor:

Okay.

Trevor:

So it just depends on the country, so.

Trevor:

Mm-hmm.

Trevor:

A lot of that hasn't quite been worked out how they're gonna do it, but that's

Trevor:

definitely where they're heading.

Trevor:

So that's a big one.

Trevor:

And that will be crucial for The demise of the American financial hemon in the

Trevor:

world because I think something like over 80%, maybe 85 to 90% of international

Trevor:

transactions are conducted in US dollars.

Trevor:

These are transactions between, you know, Costa Rica and the Netherlands.

Trevor:

Nothing to do with America.

Trevor:

So much is done in US dollars and of course the US because it's in US

Trevor:

dollars believes it has the power to impose shanks, sanctions, and other

Trevor:

penalties wherever a US dollar is used.

Trevor:

So, big move, right?

Trevor:

The voice news poll support for the constitutional change has

Trevor:

fallen to 38% while backing for the no vote has risen to 53%.

Trevor:

Scott, I.

Trevor:

It's very unlikely.

Trevor:

I think it's,

Scott:

I think it's, it's highly unlikely it's gonna win.

Scott:

Mm-hmm.

Scott:

You know, I think it's, I think it's, I think it's

Trevor:

going to be defeated.

Trevor:

Mm-hmm.

Trevor:

You listener, I did an interview with Paul from Canberra today.

Trevor:

It went for an hour and a half and my god damn Zoom recorder for some strange

Trevor:

reason only kept the first 30 minutes.

Trevor:

So I'm gonna release that as a little bonus during the week on the voice.

Trevor:

And then next week, I think Liam, who debated you, Scott, on the

Trevor:

Greens, he's a yes voter and he wants to debate me on the voice.

Trevor:

So I think next week we'll probably have Liam join us to talk about the voice.

Trevor:

So, dear listener, if you're out there and you think that there's a

Trevor:

concept in the voice that has not been discussed, and you wanna join

Trevor:

the conversation, let me know during the week and you can join in as well.

Trevor:

Email Trevor at Iron Fist Velvet Glove dot com au and we will make an arrangement.

Trevor:

So, right, that's on the cards.

Trevor:

Also polling so that support for the coalition has reached

Trevor:

its title Highest level since the federal election last year.

Trevor:

The opposition now leading Labor 37 to 35 on primary votes, but labor's still

Trevor:

leading on two party preferred 53 to 47.

Trevor:

I reckon, Scott, it's gonna be tricky for labor at the next federal election

Trevor:

despite how hopeless Dutton and Co are.

Trevor:

Yeah, I know that.

Scott:

But you know, it's, I would've thought that sort of support.

Scott:

Is not uniform across the whole country.

Scott:

I would've thought that that support is in places where I live and that type of

Scott:

thing, that you're gonna have a, you're gonna have an increased coalition vote up

Scott:

here than what you'd have den in Brisbane.

Scott:

Mm-hmm.

Scott:

Now, Brisbane, you know, I don't believe those three green seats are going

Scott:

to be permanently held in Brisbane.

Scott:

Right.

Scott:

But I don't believe that they're just going to switch

Scott:

back to the coalition either.

Trevor:

You know, I reckon if somebody voted green the last

Trevor:

election, nothing has happened that would make them wanna vote labor.

Trevor:

Yeah.

Trevor:

I know that because you're a green, but name, if you, if, think about it.

Trevor:

If somebody had actually voted green at the last election, what, what

Trevor:

possibly has labor done that would sway them to vote labor instead?

Trevor:

The next time I.

Trevor:

Possibly

Scott:

not a hell of a lot.

Scott:

But what I'm saying is that they're not gonna just switch back to the coalition.

Trevor:

No, they're not gonna do that.

Trevor:

But, but they were really former labor voters who became green voters.

Trevor:

Yeah.

Trevor:

I don't think there's any doubt about that.

Trevor:

So it's not a, it's not really a question of switching back to the liberals.

Scott:

No, but they got that seat out in the western suburbs that's name escaped

Trevor:

me.

Trevor:

That was a liberal seat.

Trevor:

Ryan.

Trevor:

Ryan.

Trevor:

Yeah.

Trevor:

That's where I am.

Trevor:

They got that.

Scott:

Yeah.

Scott:

Mm-hmm.

Scott:

They got that seat.

Scott:

Now that is, I honestly believe that had you have had a decent teal candidate

Scott:

and that sort of thing running in that seat, they would've picked that seat up.

Scott:

Mm-hmm.

Scott:

Because I honestly believe the people, you know, it's one of those things, like we

Scott:

are already living through the, through the effects of climate change right now.

Scott:

Mm-hmm.

Scott:

You know, it's getting bloody hot and it's getting get hotter and this, this

Scott:

summer is gonna be a disaster for us.

Scott:

You know, they're already, they're already putting out bushfire warnings

Scott:

for Brisbane and that type of thing.

Scott:

And I just think to myself that that is why people voted green

Scott:

last time because they thought to themselves, we've gotta get something

Scott:

done, so we're gonna vote green.

Scott:

Do I actually honestly believe that they're gonna go back to the coalition?

Scott:

No, not in the first couple of terms.

Scott:

But is there enough to make them vote later?

Scott:

Well, possibly not.

Scott:

I don't see

Trevor:

anything, I don't think.

Trevor:

Yeah,

Scott:

see, it's one of the, at least they have, at least they have

Scott:

legislated that there's gonna be a 43% reduction in all that type of

Scott:

thing in our carbon dioxide outputs.

Trevor:

I think when the stage three cut tax cuts just keep rolling through.

Trevor:

Yeah.

Trevor:

And, and, and with, and that all actually hurt them with August and just the,

Trevor:

and, and basically with interest rates crunching people and people feeling

Trevor:

economically worse off and, and also you know, Albanese is gonna own this

Trevor:

recession, whether he likes it or not, by the time of the next election, he won't be

Trevor:

able to say, oh, it's all liberal's fault.

Trevor:

And there'll be a lot of people experiencing a lot of pain with

Trevor:

higher interest rates who are gonna go well after three years of labor.

Trevor:

I'm a lot worse off.

Trevor:

Yeah.

Trevor:

But

Scott:

I honestly don't believe they can actually blame the labor

Scott:

government for raising interest rates.

Scott:

No.

Scott:

But

Trevor:

people will, will blame labor for their discomfort.

Trevor:

I say, well, you guys are in charge and you've been there for three years, and

Trevor:

I'm feeling really sore in the pocket.

Trevor:

So I just think he's, I just think they've thought they were gonna cruise

Trevor:

to a second victory and they're gonna end up having to do a negotiating.

Trevor:

Well, they're not gonna

Scott:

cruise to a second victory because they haven't,

Scott:

you know, they haven't actually.

Scott:

I, I think that they still will win next time, but it's one of

Scott:

those things, I don't believe that they're going to actually turn

Scott:

the Senate or anything like that.

Scott:

I think the Senate will probably get another tinge of green to it.

Scott:

Mm-hmm.

Scott:

And what am I trying to say?

Scott:

It's just that they haven't actually taken the bull by the horns.

Scott:

They haven't actually attacked the TA stage three tax cuts, and they

Scott:

didn't actually walk away from orus, all of which they could have done.

Scott:

Mm-hmm.

Scott:

They could have actually said, look, we can't afford the stage three tax cuts

Scott:

and orus, so we're gonna can both of them and we've also gotta get our debt

Scott:

under control, and that type of thing.

Scott:

And then they would've already got a hell of a lot more voters

Trevor:

behind them if they did that.

Trevor:

There'd be a lot of pissed off labor voters.

Trevor:

A lot of, I think there are a lot of former members and that's why there's

Scott:

Yeah, I know like yourself.

Scott:

Mm-hmm.

Scott:

And that, that's one of those things.

Scott:

It's just One of the reasons, dear listener, why I've actually been

Scott:

advocating a vote for the Greens this time is not to actually permanently do it.

Scott:

Just do it for the next couple of terms.

Scott:

Yep.

Scott:

Just to put the fear of God into the, into the

Trevor:

hands of the Labor Party.

Trevor:

Very good.

Trevor:

Just wanna return to property and this was an article from The Guardian.

Trevor:

So a household earning the median income of 105,000.

Trevor:

So that's the median household income.

Trevor:

Dear listener, 105,000 can now only comfortably afford 13% of

Trevor:

homes on the market according to property data company prop track.

Trevor:

Now, that's on the basis that they say, They assume that a house is affordable

Trevor:

if a median household does not need to spend more than 25% on mortgage payments

Trevor:

after putting down a 20% deposit.

Trevor:

So that's the sort of definition.

Trevor:

But even if you don't look at that, even if you don't like that particular

Trevor:

definition, just look at the comparison.

Trevor:

So at the moment, median income 105 comfortably afford

Trevor:

13% of homes on the market.

Trevor:

They say that three years ago, using the same formulas, a median income household

Trevor:

could afford almost 40% of homes.

Trevor:

It's gone from 40 down to 13%.

Trevor:

Mm.

Trevor:

Mm-hmm.

Scott:

And those 30% of homes would be very, for, would be very hotly

Trevor:

contested.

Trevor:

Mm-hmm.

Trevor:

So, so that was that.

Trevor:

And.

Trevor:

Last was it last week or the week before where I went through that history of

Trevor:

tax changes by Hawke keening negative gearing changes to capital gain tax?

Trevor:

Yeah.

Trevor:

And there was a section in there that I, I forgot to talk about.

Trevor:

I'll quickly mention it now.

Trevor:

It's from that same academic paper.

Trevor:

And and what it said was that in 2015, 2016, the proportion of overall

Trevor:

mortgage credit going to landlord investors stood at 35% Australia wide.

Trevor:

So back in 2015, mortgage credit to landlord investors, that was 35% of,

Trevor:

of, of the overall mortgage credit.

Trevor:

65% must have been residential mortgage.

Trevor:

So that 35% was.

Trevor:

Three times higher than the u Ss a UK and Canada.

Trevor:

And in Sydney it was actually 50% of the Sydney market was landlord investors.

Trevor:

So if 35% was already three times, that means that the uk

Trevor:

Canada, u s a normal landlord investors is somewhere around 12%.

Trevor:

And in Sydney, landlord investors as a percentage of, of the mortgage

Trevor:

market, 50%, almost five, four times.

Trevor:

Yes.

Trevor:

Four, four times high.

Trevor:

Yeah.

Trevor:

Of all apartments in Sydney, 49.6% are owned by investors.

Trevor:

Holy smokes.

Trevor:

That's apartments.

Trevor:

There's your, there's your property problem right there.

Trevor:

Dear listener.

Trevor:

Ah.

Trevor:

An intergenerational report came out from the Treasury.

Trevor:

Yes.

Trevor:

And that was

Trevor:

quite

Scott:

depressing reading, wasn't it?

Scott:

It

Trevor:

was.

Trevor:

And what they're saying is that Beby boomers, guess what?

Trevor:

It's all good at the moment.

Trevor:

No pressure on the pension system.

Trevor:

Looking down the track.

Trevor:

Gen X has got a problem.

Trevor:

Well, yep.

Trevor:

Or even the generation next after that who don't own property because Mm.

Trevor:

Here's a, an example at the moment, the, so lots of people still get at

Trevor:

least a full or part age pension, even with super at the moment.

Trevor:

The full age pension for a single person is 27,600 per year.

Trevor:

For a couple, it's 42,000 rent assistance.

Trevor:

Might add a further 4,500 per year at best.

Trevor:

According to CoreLogic, median rent across the country is

Trevor:

about $30,000 in annual rent.

Trevor:

So we are saying in the pension system, well you get 27,000 for a single 42,000

Trevor:

for a couple, we'll give you four and a half thousand if you need rent assistance.

Trevor:

Meanwhile, median rents are around 30,000 thousand dollars.

Trevor:

Yeah.

Trevor:

So the system at the moment basically assumes that most people own their

Trevor:

own home and are relying on, and are not relying on the pension to

Trevor:

pay for their mortgage or rent.

Trevor:

Mm-hmm.

Trevor:

Which would be the case in all, in most cases.

Trevor:

So, So as the population who can't afford to buy a home ages and enters retirement,

Trevor:

they're gonna be really screwed because the amount of rent assistance that's

Trevor:

traditionally available, in addition to the pension is a piddly amount

Trevor:

that's nowhere near what you need.

Trevor:

I don't know how people survive at the moment, Scott, who, who

Scott:

I don't know that those numbers really frightened

Trevor:

me.

Trevor:

You are retired, you know, now

Scott:

I've, I've got a place and all that sort of stuff, which I own, but

Scott:

you know, I couldn't understand how anyone could retire and just rent,

Trevor:

you know?

Trevor:

Mm-hmm.

Trevor:

You'd have to be out whoop, whoop in the cheapest accommodation possible.

Scott:

And they'd be so far away from hospitals and everything

Trevor:

else.

Trevor:

Mm-hmm.

Trevor:

So see, decades of neglect are all going to come home to roost.

Trevor:

Probably, probably when the last Boomer dies.

Trevor:

I, I mm-hmm.

Trevor:

Is my tip.

Trevor:

Where are we up to?

Trevor:

8 0 8.

Trevor:

Be I, we've gotta try and get more positive on this podcast,

Scott:

but it's hard to Scott, it's, it's hard to, well, the intergenerational

Scott:

report was quite depressing.

Scott:

I haven't read the whole report.

Scott:

I've only read snippets and that sort of stuff.

Scott:

Yeah.

Scott:

But you know, when you actually look at it, it's getting really very ugly.

Trevor:

Mm-hmm.

Trevor:

Middle ground mistakes.

Trevor:

So I have been recommending decoding the gurus and both Liam, listener

Trevor:

Liam who debated you on the Greens.

Trevor:

He's a bit of a fan of decoding the gurus, but he and I were both a bit disappointed

Trevor:

with their approach to Noam Chomsky when they get into sort of politics.

Trevor:

They, Matt particularly likes to say that they're in the center on

Trevor:

a lot of issues, or maybe slightly center left, but in the center.

Trevor:

And Caitlyn Johnston makes the point that one of the worst mistakes you can

Trevor:

make when formulating your understanding of the world is to begin with the

Trevor:

assumption that the truest and most accurate position must lie somewhere near

Trevor:

the center of the two major political perspectives you see laid out around you.

Trevor:

And in short, she's saying that really the left and right wing parties, whether

Trevor:

they're republican, democrat, liberal labor, are way over to the right.

Trevor:

And there's a limited Overton window there of accepted discourse.

Trevor:

And if you think you're in the middle of that is a good place to be.

Trevor:

You are ignoring the propaganda and the A system that has driven the discourse

Trevor:

so far to the right that the center of both of the parties is a very right

Trevor:

wing position, is what she's saying.

Trevor:

And she says the majority of people have been duped by propaganda into espousing

Trevor:

mainstream political perspectives.

Trevor:

Those with an accurate read on things will necessarily be a small fringe

Trevor:

minority until the dynamic changes.

Trevor:

So you'll have to get comfortable rejecting mainstream orthodoxies,

Trevor:

dismissing mainstream media and shunning mainstream politics because those things

Trevor:

are inseparably interwoven with the matrix of deceit by which our rulers have pulled

Trevor:

the blindfold over the civilization.

Trevor:

There we go.

Trevor:

So that was her talking about holding a centrist middle of the

Trevor:

road position is not necessarily where you should be, Scott.

Trevor:

You think you are becoming more to the left middle.

Trevor:

What do you think of her comment?

Trevor:

What do you think of her comment that the, the left and the right

Trevor:

labor, liberal, democrat, Republican, are way over to the right?

Trevor:

What do you think of that as a constant?

Trevor:

No, I think that's accurate.

Trevor:

Mm.

Trevor:

I think it's accurate for sure.

Scott:

Yeah.

Scott:

I've only, I look at the British Labor Party, it's no longer a, a, a patch

Trevor:

on what it was.

Trevor:

Mm-hmm.

Trevor:

You know, and you've only gotta look at our Labor party with the

Trevor:

stage three tax cuts, which is not a patch, what it's, yeah.

Trevor:

Yeah.

Trevor:

Mm-hmm.

Trevor:

She also really goes to town on America a lot in her writing.

Trevor:

And yeah, she

Scott:

does,

Trevor:

but she's really making a correct point.

Scott:

Yeah, I know.

Scott:

She is.

Scott:

It, it's one of those things, it's it's like I've said many, many, many times

Scott:

before, the Americans have been res, historically responsible for some absolute

Scott:

disastrous foreign policy blunders.

Scott:

Mm-hmm.

Scott:

And you know, she's highlighted

Trevor:

them there.

Trevor:

Yeah.

Trevor:

I'll just read some of her highlights.

Trevor:

Whenever I say the US is the most tyrannical regime on earth, I get a lot

Trevor:

of objections from people, and these are always people who simply haven't

Trevor:

thought very hard about the horrific realities of the US foreign policy.

Trevor:

Sure, you can name some governments who are more brutal and oppressive

Trevor:

towards their own citizenry than Washington, but you can't name any who

Trevor:

are more brutal and oppressive overall.

Trevor:

When you zoom out and look at the big picture, the United States is

Trevor:

currently circling the planet with hundreds of military bases and waging

Trevor:

wars, which have killed millions and displaced tens of millions

Trevor:

just since the turn of the century.

Trevor:

Its sanctions and blockades are starving people to death

Trevor:

and on mass every single day.

Trevor:

It works to destroy any nation, which disobeys its dictates by toppling their

Trevor:

governments via c i a coups proxy armies, partial and full scale invasions, and

Trevor:

the most egregious number of election interferences in the entire world.

Trevor:

I mean, this is all true, all documented, but we get a guy comes out with the

Trevor:

akina strategy and someone writes in the rationale full of just bullshit anti-China

Trevor:

sentiment without for a minute stopping to say anything about some anti-US sentiment.

Trevor:

Thank you very much.

Trevor:

It only comes from independent bloggers.

Trevor:

It's, it's like I, I watch the news, Scott sometimes like channel seven

Trevor:

news typically, and just the casual reference to the evil China that is

Trevor:

building up military in response to.

Trevor:

You know, and, and who knows what they're gonna do with it without,

Trevor:

for a minute, giving context of how they're being surrounded by US Army

Trevor:

bases in the Philippines career and any number of other places.

Trevor:

It just pisses me off the, we're in a, we are living in a McCarthy

Trevor:

McCarthys era, McCarthy era.

Trevor:

Dear listener, was when in the u s A, you know, the communist scare and, you

Trevor:

know, reds under the bed everywhere and, and you know, you'd lived in fear

Trevor:

of being deemed to be a communist.

Trevor:

It's that sort of level of propaganda when it, when it's so well documented, what

Trevor:

the shit that that country's been up to.

Trevor:

It's frustrating.

Trevor:

Don't

Scott:

you think that The US though is relying on those old, old laws

Scott:

where, not laws, but you had a written unwritten sort of agreement back in the

Scott:

old Soviet days and that sort of stuff.

Scott:

Provided they stayed on their side of the den, provided we stayed on our

Scott:

side of the venue and then in China, provided they stayed on their side

Scott:

of the 38th to parallel the provided, we stayed on our side of the 38th to

Scott:

parallel, there wouldn't be a problem.

Scott:

But China's never, China

Trevor:

has, the USA has never stuck with that.

Trevor:

There so many military bases around the world.

Trevor:

Yeah, I know.

Trevor:

But those, those

Scott:

military bases are basically still where the old lines of demarcation were.

Scott:

But the Philippines has always been a host to American military bases.

Scott:

Japan has always been a host to American military bases.

Scott:

South Korea has always been a host to American military bases.

Scott:

Vietnam hasn't.

Scott:

Indonesia hasn't.

Scott:

China

Trevor:

was on the outside in the war and they set up military places.

Trevor:

Yeah, I know they were, because they were like, well, they're the next enemy.

Trevor:

We'll just start getting ready for 'em.

Trevor:

Sorry.

Trevor:

They just decided they're gonna be the next enemy.

Trevor:

We'll just get ready for them.

Trevor:

'cause they're communist.

Trevor:

I think that was, they're communists was in.

Scott:

Okay.

Scott:

But I think that was in response to China getting involved in

Scott:

the, in the Korean conflict.

Trevor:

And America wasn't involved in it.

Scott:

Yeah, I know they were.

Scott:

I've got no doubt about that.

Scott:

But you know, the Yanks, the Yanks could actually look at it and then say, well,

Scott:

the North actually invaded the south.

Scott:

We're here to prop up south.

Trevor:

So that would've been the end of it.

Trevor:

Yeah.

Trevor:

But when you said the old system of, we'll stay behind this line and you

Trevor:

stay behind that line, there was no line that America decided to stay behind.

Trevor:

The entire planet was theirs to roam over.

Scott:

Well, I don't think the Yanks have got, I don't think

Scott:

Yanks have got bases in Africa.

Scott:

They've got bases in Western Europe.

Scott:

They've got bases in dotted throughout the Pacific.

Scott:

They've got bases here in Australia.

Scott:

They've got their own bases over there in the years.

Scott:

The Americas.

Trevor:

They've got bases everywhere, all over the planet

Trevor:

that are nowhere near America.

Trevor:

Do they have doing, what are they doing in, what are they doing in Philippines?

Trevor:

What's the point

Scott:

in the Philippines?

Scott:

You know, the're Philippines, it's so far

Trevor:

away from mainland America.

Trevor:

They've got, I know no right to be, there's what they're doing in Europe.

Scott:

Well, they're there because they're part of nato

Trevor:

and they're so far away from their own territory.

Trevor:

But my point is they feel they can roam anywhere on the planet.

Trevor:

Is fair going for them?

Trevor:

Yeah.

Trevor:

I don't, haven't been hiding behind any, haven't been hiding behind any line.

Trevor:

Some gentleman's agreement.

Trevor:

We'll stay behind this line.

Trevor:

You stay behind that line.

Trevor:

That has not been Well, I think that

Scott:

a strategy, I think they have actually, I think they

Scott:

have actually followed that strategy of the 38th parallel.

Scott:

They haven't actually crossed

Trevor:

that line.

Trevor:

Okay.

Trevor:

In in Korea?

Trevor:

Yeah, in Korea.

Trevor:

Okay.

Trevor:

There's one line, one tiny little line.

Trevor:

Yeah, because they can't Okay then, because they can't, I mean, they

Scott:

tried to.

Scott:

Yeah, I know.

Scott:

Because they would, what do you mean they tried to provoke a war?

Trevor:

They, they, sorry.

Trevor:

They, they tried to, they operated a war trying to cross that line.

Scott:

Well, they did, but that was also a mistake of MacArthur, that sort of stuff,

Scott:

who wanted to prosecute the war and he wanted to actually bring China into it.

Scott:

Now how do you, how do you actually rang up the president and said, now what you

Scott:

gotta do is get on the phone to P King right now and tell them that we're only

Scott:

going as far north as their border, and then after that we're gonna stop.

Scott:

But you know, China saw it panicked and got involved, and that's

Scott:

why the whole bloody thing broke down into nothing more than a.

Scott:

A blood bath.

Trevor:

Yeah.

Trevor:

So

Scott:

around

Trevor:

the 38th parallel.

Trevor:

So, Caitlyn Johnson is exaggerating in a critique of American foreign policy.

Trevor:

Is that, no, she's not

Scott:

exaggerating.

Scott:

You know, she's not exaggerating.

Scott:

You know, she's not exaggerating because those, those election

Scott:

claims are, are accurate, you know?

Scott:

Mm-hmm.

Scott:

They, they did actually get involved in South America and

Scott:

they did fuck it up very badly.

Scott:

Mm-hmm.

Scott:

I had you know, I honestly believe they're gonna screw up Iraq too.

Trevor:

Mm.

Trevor:

Anyway had lunch with Cam Riley just yesterday.

Trevor:

It was great.

Trevor:

We were both a couple of old men bemoaning the world.

Trevor:

He was just commenting of how it's impossible to get anything meat

Trevor:

or worthwhile on a, b, C anymore.

Trevor:

I.

Trevor:

It's just, it's just cat stuck up a tree stories on the A, b,

Trevor:

C these days, or really shallow, really shallow opinion pieces.

Trevor:

It's really deteriorated.

Trevor:

Can't get anything outta them of, of interest I don't think.

Trevor:

I, I Bernard Keen writing in Crikey talked about Westcott.

Trevor:

She was the business council of Australia's spokesperson and she was

Trevor:

on seven 30 report and she was allowed to repeat, unchallenged the claim

Trevor:

that company tax cuts would increase investment productivity and wages.

Trevor:

And, and Sarah Ferguson is normally like a rat up a drain pipe with

Trevor:

all sorts of other people that she dislikes just let it sail through.

Trevor:

It didn't stop and say, well, hang on a minute.

Trevor:

There's any number of studies that have shown that in fact, company tax cut

Trevor:

down doesn't do not increase investment productivity and wages, and it's just

Trevor:

pocketed by the shareholders, but it was just allowed to sail through.

Trevor:

She's super aggressive to some people, but just let this business

Trevor:

council woman westcott sail through.

Trevor:

And then of course, other journalists pick up on it and in the following

Trevor:

days are questioning the treasurer and saying, oh, well, the business

Trevor:

council says you should be lowering taxes because of you know, to increase

Trevor:

investment productivity and wages.

Trevor:

Are you gonna do it without any analysis of what a shitty suggestion it was?

Trevor:

And it's now an issue that supposedly charmers has to deal

Trevor:

with just because some lobbyist spinning the line for her group.

Trevor:

It comes up with the same shit they've come up with for the last 10 years.

Trevor:

Repeats a, an idea that's rubbish and it gets a life of its own

Trevor:

that people have to deal with.

Trevor:

That's just a failure of this media class to turn around on Wester

Trevor:

Cott and say, hold on a minute.

Trevor:

You've been saying that crap for 10 years.

Trevor:

We know that that is not the case.

Trevor:

Got anything new to say?

Trevor:

So he concludes Bernard Keen saying This is the theater of the observed stuff.

Trevor:

A pack of profiteers and gouges simply repeats the same.

Trevor:

DRL has been uttering for at least a decade, slaps a different

Trevor:

name on it, has it covered.

Trevor:

Straight-faced by journalists who pretend they've never heard it before,

Trevor:

leading to other journalists to quiz politicians about it as though it's

Trevor:

a legitimate matter of public debate, prompting, chin stroking commentary.

Trevor:

About the terrible state of politics.

Trevor:

It's entirely vapid at best and deeply disingenuous at worst, a reflection of how

Trevor:

shallow amnesiac and incapable of original thought and skepticism, mainstream media

Trevor:

journalism is that this circle jerk constitutes economic debate in Australia.

Trevor:

That's good.

Trevor:

That is good.

Trevor:

Bernard Ke That's the sort of colorful language.

Scott:

Yeah.

Scott:

Extra Crikey, doesn't it?

Scott:

Yes.

Trevor:

That's the sort of colorful language we need.

Trevor:

Yeah.

Trevor:

This circle jerk constitutes economic debate in Australia.

Trevor:

Someone should make a t-shirt out of that

Trevor:

8 22 Ukraine.

Trevor:

What do the people of Ukraine want?

Trevor:

What did the people of Ukraine want from the John JE blog?

Trevor:

Allison's just arrived in the chat room.

Trevor:

No doubt.

Trevor:

Heather.

Trevor:

Allison, get out.

Trevor:

Bev.

Trevor:

Oh, Bev, sorry.

Trevor:

Who's listening as well?

Trevor:

James is still in the chat room.

Trevor:

James made the comment.

Trevor:

The Philippines and Japan were occupied in the us.

Trevor:

Never left.

Trevor:

Right.

Trevor:

Back to the John man.

Trevor:

Japan does have

Scott:

a security agreement with the United States though.

Scott:

Mm-hmm.

Trevor:

By choice anyway.

Trevor:

Yeah.

Scott:

One would hope so, but it wouldn't surprise me that

Scott:

they would lent on anyway.

Trevor:

Yep.

Trevor:

Graham Gill, who's he?

Trevor:

Professor Emeritus at the University of Sydney, a longtime student

Trevor:

of Soviet and Russian affairs.

Trevor:

He's the author of 25 books and over 100 articles, as well as

Trevor:

Soviet and Russian politics.

Trevor:

He has published on democratization and the origins and development of the state.

Trevor:

That sounds like a reasonable CV for someone to comment

Trevor:

on Ukraine, Russian Affairs.

Trevor:

He's currently working on a handbook on Russian politics and society and

Trevor:

a study of revolution and terror.

Trevor:

He's a fellow of the Academy of Social Sciences Sciences in

Trevor:

Australia, and a former president of the International Committee for

Trevor:

Central and East European Studies.

Trevor:

He probably knows a little bit about Ukraine and Russia.

Trevor:

He was looking at articles that had been in the John JE blog.

Trevor:

One was by David Higgin bottom with his views on the crime area.

Trevor:

Arguing that there is widespread acceptance of Russian rule.

Trevor:

The other article was by John Richardson arguing that that was wrong, that any

Trevor:

pro-Russian majority in the Crimea is a result of the influx of ethnic Russians.

Trevor:

And and basically arguing that the original tartars should be the people

Trevor:

who decide what happens in Korea.

Trevor:

In Crimea, Graham Gill comes out on the side of David Higginbottom, which

Trevor:

is the one that there's widespread acceptance of the Russian rule in Crimea.

Trevor:

So interesting analysis of some polls here.

Trevor:

He says The question of the extent of support for unification

Trevor:

with Russia is quite vexed.

Trevor:

We're talking about the Crimee here, Richardson sites.

Trevor:

Kiev International Institute of Sociology Polls, which show

Trevor:

that in the years leading up to annexation, between 36 and 46% of the

Trevor:

population favored joining Russia.

Trevor:

Two things can be said about these figures.

Trevor:

First, any country that has over a third of its population wanting to join another

Trevor:

country has a serious political problem.

Trevor:

And in this case, that problem was created by successive governments in Kiev.

Trevor:

Secondly, other polls for this period showed significantly higher proportions of

Trevor:

people favoring unification with Russia.

Trevor:

In 2008, a Ukrainian Center for Economic and Political Studies poll showed

Trevor:

around 63% support for joining Russia.

Trevor:

A U N D P study in 2011 showed 66%.

Trevor:

In 2014, a German poll had the figure at almost 71%.

Trevor:

So, Certainly during this time, a u s A defunded poll set the figure

Trevor:

at only 23%, but this just goes to show how uncertain the whole area is.

Trevor:

But a bunch of polls showing in that period around 2008, 2011 2014

Trevor:

in the Crimea numbers like 63, 66, and 71% of the population of

Trevor:

Crimea wanting to be part of Russia.

Trevor:

So, factor that into your Ukrainian thoughts about

Scott:

I think the Donbas is an entirely separate issue, isn't it?

Trevor:

Yeah, well, it would be, but let's just, we've got something on Crimea here.

Trevor:

We've just dealing with that got something on Crimea, which,

Scott:

which I don't.

Scott:

As much as it pains me to say this, I don't disagree with them there

Scott:

because Crimea has well it was the only warm water port that the Soviet

Scott:

Navy had and that type of thing.

Scott:

And I think Mcha Gorbachev said before he died that Heath saw that

Scott:

Crimea should be part of Russia, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah.

Scott:

Mm-hmm.

Scott:

So I think to myself, you've gotta take the last reasonable

Scott:

bastard that was running the place.

Scott:

And you've gotta, if, if he makes, if he makes a statement,

Scott:

you should be listening to him.

Scott:

Mm-hmm.

Scott:

So I can actually agree with him taking Crimea, but I don't agree with

Trevor:

the Dom bass.

Trevor:

He also goes on to saying that, that after the Russian invasion, there

Trevor:

was a Russian sponsored referendum.

Trevor:

There are good grounds for you viewing this result with considerable

Trevor:

skepticism given the domestic situation.

Trevor:

I indeed, I do.

Trevor:

Yep.

Trevor:

Including the pressure applied.

Trevor:

However, a series of polls taken after the referendum by reputable polling

Trevor:

companies, Gallup, pew Center, and Lavata Center, all showed overwhelming

Trevor:

support for the decision to join Russia.

Trevor:

So that was posed to the Russian invasion.

Trevor:

Just some more polls.

Trevor:

So, just add all this into your thoughts about, about it.

Trevor:

What else does he say?

Trevor:

There was an unhappiness in the Crimea about the absence of affection,

Trevor:

effective regional autonomy.

Trevor:

It says, turning to the question of international law, it's clear

Trevor:

that the arm's seizure of a state's territory by another is illegal.

Trevor:

This applies as much to Crimea and Russia as it does to Kosovo

Trevor:

and NATO intervention in 1999.

Trevor:

But there is also a principle that populations should have the right to

Trevor:

decide their own forms of government, the right to self-determination.

Trevor:

And as in the Kosovo case, there was the view that the facilitation

Trevor:

of this by armed forces from without could be justified.

Trevor:

So it is just making the point that NATO actively conducted activities

Trevor:

in Kosovo because in their view, the local population wanted out from

Trevor:

the country that they were part of.

Trevor:

And that was a justification for NATO action.

Trevor:

If you apply the same principle then based on the polls that we've just heard

Trevor:

about, you would say that the Russian.

Trevor:

Intervention into Crimea was no different to the NATO intervention in Kofa.

Trevor:

So if you're gonna condemn one, you have to condemn the other.

Trevor:

Very interesting.

Trevor:

Yeah.

Trevor:

Joining in the chat room late, noisy Andrew, and dont I?

Trevor:

No.

Trevor:

Don's been there a while.

Trevor:

Noisy.

Trevor:

Andrews there.

Trevor:

Hello.

Trevor:

Noisy.

Trevor:

Right.

Trevor:

And was the war provoked?

Trevor:

This is an article written by Edward Laki.

Trevor:

He was born in Ukraine, studied in Russia, worked in America as

Trevor:

a laser fusion researcher and a professor of mathematics and physics.

Trevor:

He's got relatives and friends in all three countries, and for

Trevor:

the last 35 years, he's been trying to do his best to make them

Trevor:

friends, partners, and even allies.

Trevor:

Instead.

Trevor:

All three are now at war.

Trevor:

So he is seen as a Russian sympathizer, but here's what he has to say, which

Trevor:

is that so in May 93, we organized a trilateral meeting on Capitol Hill

Trevor:

with legislators from the US Congress, Russia's Duma Ukraine's rata, to discuss

Trevor:

what the US were prepared to do to help Russia and the Ukraine in their

Trevor:

transition from communism to democracy.

Trevor:

And Congressman Tom Lantos house Foreign Affairs Committee chaired the meeting and

Trevor:

said they had, Gorbachev told us in 1989, he was prepared to dissolve the U S S R

Trevor:

and had he requested a trillion dollars to do it, we would most likely have agreed

Trevor:

to give a hundred billion dollars annually for 10 years, however, As it turned out,

Trevor:

the Russians did it all by themselves.

Trevor:

So why spend us taxpayers money when the job was already being done?

Trevor:

You're on your own guys said Lantos and other seniors people, c I A

Trevor:

director, said the same thing.

Trevor:

You're on your own.

Trevor:

But it was a mis bit misleading because the US did not leave

Trevor:

Russia and route Ukraine alone.

Trevor:

Yankees didn't go home.

Trevor:

Billions of American tax dollars were poured into Ukraine.

Trevor:

Not to boost its economy, but to reform public opinion that at the time was

Trevor:

predominantly in favor of a neutral status and was against joining nato.

Trevor:

This is well documented.

Trevor:

This propaganda money was spent by America in the Ukraine.

Trevor:

It was Assistant Secretary of State European Affairs, Victoria

Trevor:

Newland, who admitted that we have invested over $5 billion.

Trevor:

To assist Ukraine in these and other goals that will ensure a secure and

Trevor:

prosperous and democratic Ukraine.

Trevor:

In reality, the purpose of this money was to drive a wedge between the two Slavic

Trevor:

nations and push Ukraine into nato.

Trevor:

The money plus funding from Soros, Canada and other western countries

Trevor:

helped instigate the Orange color revolution in 2004 to bring a

Trevor:

pro NATO government into power.

Trevor:

They succeeded, but the anti NATO mood in the country remained strong.

Trevor:

Therefore, a second revolution was needed.

Trevor:

This time's name was Madan, and it was Victoria Newland who

Trevor:

coordinated it on location in Kiev while constantly reporting

Trevor:

and getting input from Joe Biden.

Trevor:

Needless to say, the new Ukrainian government that was selected by

Trevor:

Washington immediately declared its intention to join nato.

Trevor:

There is no doubt that if not for this coup, there would

Trevor:

be no war in Ukraine to die.

Trevor:

It's no surprise that the White House, a bipartisan majority in

Trevor:

Congress and think tanks that are funded by the military industrial

Trevor:

complex are blaming it all on Russia.

Trevor:

So there's another view of how this all came about.

Trevor:

Context.

Trevor:

You listener, ah, I'm gonna, I've

Scott:

gotta go back and read that because that is, it puts the whole

Scott:

Ukraine war in a very different light,

Trevor:

doesn't it?

Trevor:

Mm-hmm.

Trevor:

It's just not a poor democracy that was sitting there doing nothing that

Trevor:

suddenly was attacked by Russia.

Trevor:

There's a whole bunch of things going on in the leadup and

Trevor:

American fingers involved.

Trevor:

Yeah.

Trevor:

Dear listener, I am going to, during the week, as I mentioned before, I recorded

Trevor:

an interview with Paul from Canberra.

Trevor:

Unfortunately, only the first 30 minutes survive.

Trevor:

Did I mention that on air or did I mention that to you, Scott?

Trevor:

You did mention it, yeah.

Trevor:

Okay.

Trevor:

And I'm gonna tack onto it.

Trevor:

What was a summary of what was missed off?

Trevor:

And that's gonna include that's gonna include a little bit from

Trevor:

from Marcia Langton in 2013 and what she had to say about constitutional

Trevor:

recognition at that time.

Trevor:

And basically there was.

Trevor:

A expert panel on recognizing Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander

Trevor:

peoples in the Constitution in 2012.

Trevor:

And the recommendation coming out of that was we should get rid of

Trevor:

references to race in the Constitution.

Trevor:

And last year, Langton argued really strongly as to why having race referred

Trevor:

to was dangerous and inappropriate.

Trevor:

They also argued for sort of a historical note about the

Trevor:

history of indigenous people in Australia and you know, settlement.

Trevor:

They didn't ask for a voice back in 2012.

Trevor:

If they'd just stuck to what was on offer or what was being contemplated in 2012.

Trevor:

I think they would've ended up with a, I.

Trevor:

Referendum proposal that would've been acceptable to a lot of Australians.

Trevor:

And it's the addition of the voice that I think that has really curled it.

Trevor:

And I think that's Noel Pearson.

Trevor:

Anyway, look out for that in your podcast app during the week 30 minutes.

Trevor:

Interview with Paul from Canberra.

Trevor:

And then at the end I'm gonna summarize what was cut and also talk about Marcia

Trevor:

Langton and her view at that time about why race shouldn't be part of

Trevor:

the Constitution and why that to me seems at odds with the current proposal

Trevor:

to put race in the Constitution.

Trevor:

So, look out for that one.

Trevor:

Well, Scott, we made it an now 37 without Joe, just like the

Trevor:

old days, just the two of us.

Scott:

Yeah, it was just a little bit like going down memory line, wasn't it?

Trevor:

Yes.

Trevor:

So, right, dear listener.

Trevor:

If you've got something to say about the voice, you reckon there's

Trevor:

an argument that hasn't been dealt with, feel free to email me.

Trevor:

If you want to talk about it on air, you can.

Trevor:

If you just wanna write what it is, then contact me during the week Trevor

Trevor:

at Iron Fist Velvet Glove dot com au.

Trevor:

Looks like I think Liam might be with us next week to talk about

Trevor:

the voice and the arguments.

Trevor:

So he convinced you, Scott, that you should probably vote green.

Trevor:

Maybe he'll convince me that it should be a yes vote.

Trevor:

We'll wait and see.

Trevor:

I don't think he's gonna do that.

Trevor:

Well, you never know.

Trevor:

Open to the, open to the possibility, but I would be surprised.

Trevor:

But if he came up with an argument that I hadn't heard before, I would be surprised.

Trevor:

Yeah, yeah, yeah.

Trevor:

Alison asked, where's Joe?

Trevor:

He's at some function, Alison, so that's where he is.

Trevor:

And by the way, there's gonna be a secular conference, Scott, in

Trevor:

Victoria, in Sydney, isn't it?

Trevor:

I think it's in Melbourne.

Trevor:

Okay.

Trevor:

I think I thought it was Sydney.

Trevor:

A bunch of speakers.

Trevor:

All of the secular gurus in Australia from Luke Beck to Fiona Patton

Trevor:

to it's in Sydney, is it Sydney?

Trevor:

And our, and according to Alison, it's in Sydney.

Trevor:

And I'm gonna call her our very own Alison.

Trevor:

We'll also be there as one of the speakers at the so yeah, if you are

Trevor:

in Sydney or you feel like going to Sydney for a one day conference on

Trevor:

secularism and where it stands, then that's coming up where it used to stand.

Trevor:

Mm-hmm.

Trevor:

Anyway.

Trevor:

Anyway, that's going on, right?

Trevor:

I don't think there's anything else pressing Jo.

Trevor:

Joe Scott saying, alright, dear listener, we will talk to you next week.

Trevor:

Bye for now.

Trevor:

Okay.

Scott:

Goodnight everyone.

Scott:

Bye now.

Scott:

Congratulations,

Trevor:

Trevor.

Trevor:

Congratulations on five years of fine podcasting.

Trevor:

Like a good communion wine.

Trevor:

Your podcasts get better with every year.

Trevor:

Dear listener, don't be seduced by Trevor's dult tones or

Trevor:

seemingly reasonable arguments.

Trevor:

When it comes to Trevor.

Trevor:

Remind yourself of the wise words of Brian's mother and he's not the Messiah.

Trevor:

He's just a very naughty boy.

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