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Episode 412 - We're Back

In this episode, we look at the state of the world and the likely trends and events for the next year.

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Transcript
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Suburban Eastern Australia, an environment that has, over time,

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evolved some extraordinarily unique groups of Homo Sapiens.

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But today, we observe a small tribe akin to a group of meerkats that

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gather together atop a small mound to watch, question, and discuss the

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current events of their city, their country, and their world at large.

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Let's listen keenly and observe this group fondly known as the

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Iron Fist and the Velvet Glove.

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Hello and welcome, dear listener.

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We're back for 2024, the Iron Fist and the Velvet Glove podcast.

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I'm Trevor, aka the Iron Fist, with me as always from regional

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Queensland, Scott the Velvet Glove.

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Scott, how are you?

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G'day, Trevor.

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G'day, listeners.

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How are you all?

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I hope everyone's well.

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Yeah, hopefully everyone's well.

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If you're in the chat room, say hello and we'll try and incorporate your messages.

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Joe's not here.

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I think Joe is caught up in something else in his trip in the UK.

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So, but he may appear.

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He's actually having a good time over there, I would have thought.

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Yeah, so so anyway Wotley's in the chat room and says hello.

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So that's good.

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Well, what are we going to talk about?

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You just, over Christmas, Christmas dinners, gatherings of your family,

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did you talk about news and politics and sex and religion with your crazy

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uncle, with your boomer parents, with your Gen Z disenchanted youngsters?

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Well we're going to talk about news and politics and sex and religion here.

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Get you up to speed on what's been happening.

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What's going to happen.

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Maybe in this initial part of this episode We'll just sort of look at where exactly

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are we but the world and what's likely to happen in the year ahead and the

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years ahead sort of Generally speaking without being too specific Scott and

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I were just chewing the fat over a few things prior to pressing the live button.

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So we'll continue that discussion so yeah, I Kiss I had some friends

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from America just stay last night and talking to Kate and she was saying,

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you know, how do you explain right wing politics and its popularity amongst a

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significant section of the population?

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And and I was thinking about it and it's a good way to sort of just reflect

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on where we've got to at this point in the experiment of human history.

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And, Scott, here's my view, as I said in a nutshell, which was, we've essentially,

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over the last 50 years seen the demise of the middle class and the worsening

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of conditions for, you know, the lower classes, but certainly a distant

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a demise of the, of the conditions for working, average working people.

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And, and really the rise of, of, of some of these right wing characters

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is a reaction to that, where people are not happy with their current

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circumstance and they're looking for someone or something to blame.

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And for a number of people, they're not quite yet ready to blame

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unrestrained capitalism and the neo liberalism experiment that's been

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running since Thatcher and Reagan.

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And then the only alternative to that is to be a bit xenophobic and to blame

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brown people and other people and immigrants and to hark back to the good

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old days of the sixties when there was.

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A Judeo Christian morality, and if we could only return to those sorts

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of things, and that sort of appeal to conservative moral values, and a blaming

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of immigrants, a blaming of China for taking all of the business, and A sort

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of a lashing out at other people rather than looking at maybe the system that

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we've been working under hasn't been doing what it was all cracked up to do.

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So, and I think, I think we'll start over the years to see people.

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start to accept that the capitalism, unrestrained capitalism

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experiment has some major problems.

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And in Australia, I reckon people will see that because they'll

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just look at housing and they'll just go, this situation is a mess.

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We needed some regulation here to fix this and it's not happening.

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And I, yeah, I, even here with the units where I stay with one guy,

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he's quite conservative, sort of.

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Recognising, he's done enough reading to know that Capitalism requires And

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without growth, capitalism fails.

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It's just an essential part.

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And you just run out of opportunities for growth.

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You run out of tricks, which we'll talk about later.

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So, anyway, Scott.

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You can see that happening with India, which is the next

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country that's going to move up.

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Mm.

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And.

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As their middle class is starting to grow and that sort of stuff, the

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birth rate is starting to decline.

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You know, it's only a matter of time before Africa joins

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that declining birth rate.

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And then we're going to be stuffed.

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We're not going to be able to import our population from anywhere.

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So we, you know, technically should have been in recession here in Australia, but

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immigration, population growth basically bumped up the numbers so that we weren't.

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So, uh, so there's sort of a broad brush thing of where I

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think we're heading over the next.

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Just how long it takes for that to happen, who knows?

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Could be decades for that realisation or it might come quicker depending on

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what disasters beset us along the way.

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So, Alison's in the chat room.

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Good on you, Alison.

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Alison, if you ever want to come on and do a rundown of where we are with

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Secularism and religious instruction and all the rest of it, feel free to, to come

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on and give us a rundown of where we're at to, and that conference you spoke at.

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So, um, so yeah, so, we've got Trump coming up, Scott

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with an election in the U.

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S.

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and Here's my tip.

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I think if he lives, and it's against Biden, if he continues to live,

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I reckon if it's a Trump vs Biden election, I think Trump's gonna win.

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What do you reckon?

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Nothing can surprise me.

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I mean, you can only see it, I mean, it's, I find it incredible that the Never

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Trumpers and all that sort of stuff and the Republicans haven't made a bigger,

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haven't made a bigger song and dance over these 91 criminal indictments he's facing

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and as a result, it looks like the bastard is going to be sailing into office.

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You know, it's, it's one of those things, I, I, I honestly believe the

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problem is in the Democrats, that they have backed the wrong horse, they've

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backed a very old stallion and that old stallion is It's too old to put

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down now, so I just don't think people will be motivated to get out and vote.

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No.

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And to campaign.

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And they don't have a compulsory ballot and all that sort of stuff,

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so you're no longer, you're not arguing to the centre, you're arguing

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to the extremes on both parties.

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You put enough energy into the left of the Democrats and the middle of the road,

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so well fuck it, I'm not going to vote.

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And then you, you do that on the right and all that sort of stuff and they think

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to themselves, well, I'm going to hold my nose and vote for Trump because it's going

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to be better than having Biden back in.

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Which I don't understand, but anyway, it is what it is.

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It's just, well, people are just hurting.

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They're saying the system's not helping.

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Yeah, I know.

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Yeah.

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But why the hell, okay, if you're hurting and that sort of stuff,

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why the hell would you turn around and vote for a billionaire?

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That first item of government was to reduce taxes on the, on his, on his mates.

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Cause he's, he's clearly not part of the establishment and they blame the

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establishment for where we are and, or where they are in America, at least.

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And they see him as anti establishment and, and as somebody who will shake

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things up and you know, tribalism, they'll hear what they want to hear.

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So, yeah, you know, the Republicans are motivated and I think the Democrats

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will be very unmotivated by Biden.

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And I think, I think he's going to, the polls show him slightly ahead.

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And anyway, I think that's, I think all of his court cases, he'll

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be able to hold off long enough.

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Till after the election and yeah, but see that case he's facing in

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Georgia That's the one that's actually got real criminal time with him.

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He could actually end up doing time for that Yeah, he cannot pardon himself as

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the United States president against a state conviction So, I suppose it depends

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on who his running mate is, as to who's actually going to be the president.

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Yeah, well, this will all be dealt with after the election

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though, the really hard stuff.

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So, I think he'll get in and then he'll, he'll, he'll just claim that he can do it,

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and wait for somebody to come and actually arrest him and drag him off, real crisis

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of democracy, perhaps, looming there.

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Well, I suppose you're going to have the secret services that are there to

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protect him and all that sort of stuff.

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They could be ending up facing off against Georgia's police.

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You know, it's just, it's a hell of a mess.

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Yeah, it is.

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Here in Queensland, we're going to have a state election, I think,

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at the end of the year as well.

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And so Pal's gone.

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Steven Miles is in.

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That was a good move by labor.

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Elli is the liberal leader, LMP leader.

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He, he comes across as harmless enough.

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But I think as people get a better look at his colleagues

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and get reminded of who they are.

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Yeah, exactly.

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And that's the whole point about the LMP.

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They have been very heavily overtaken by the Christian, right?

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Mm-Hmm.

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And I don't want anyone to forget that.

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Mm-Hmm.

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They are.

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under the control of the Christian nutters.

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So do not believe that they are all innocent and sweet and

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everything else because they're not.

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They're the same bastards that did what they did while they were in

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office, and they're going to do exactly the same thing again next time.

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So someone like Grace Grace, inner city electorate, she's really

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Facing it, I think, from the Greens.

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Hey, she's really facing an uphill battle.

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You know, it's, it's one of those things, especially if especially if she

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was still Education Minister, if she was still pushing Christian prayers and

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all that sort of stuff, then the Greens would have had a field day with her.

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You'd hope so.

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Now that she's no longer education minister and all that sort of

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thing, she can always just say, oh, it's not me, it's someone else.

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Hang on, isn't she?

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She still is education minister.

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No, she was actually Oh, no, that's right, there was a new one.

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She was given a new job, I can't remember what it was.

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That's right, but I think the assistant education, like there's an assistant

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to the education minister who is Really anti religious instruction,

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so hope there that the assistant to the minister is going to push things.

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Yeah.

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So, so we'll see how that develops and they're just fed.

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I think that Stephen Miles has got a pretty good chance of winning.

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Yeah, I think he has.

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It really wouldn't surprise me if you end up with a minority Labor

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government propped up by the Greens.

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That's my early tip for the year as well.

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So, um, Labor in coalition with the Greens in the state and a Trump victory.

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There we go.

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Let's hope you're wrong on that.

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It really wouldn't surprise me.

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Yeah, so, Yes, so just still getting back to sort of crystal ball gazing as

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to what's going to happen, so Continued demise of the USA will be accompanied

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by the rise of China So you may read things, dear listener, about the

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Chinese economy being stuffed and And you know, certain banks in China going

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broke, or property problems in China.

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China's had a growth rate of 5 percent GDP.

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For the largest economy in the world, any other country would kill The

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second largest economy in the world.

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Well, depending how you measure it, Scott.

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Purchasing power parity, it is the largest.

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So, you know.

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So if you hear rumours of people saying, oh, the Chinese economy

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is starved, 5 percent growth.

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Most countries would kill for that.

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And some of them do.

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Yeah.

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We've got BRICS.

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So that was that's his collection of countries that are are trying to

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break away from US control of economic matters and particularly the dollar.

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So, um, so, they, the BRICS, have been joined by, so BRICS is Brazil,

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Russia Iran, China, and South Africa.

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Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa.

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India, sorry.

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India, China.

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Yes.

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And they've been joined by and this took effect on the 1st of January

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Saudi Arabia, Egypt, the United Arab Emirates, Iran, and Ethiopia have joined.

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Interesting how they've described a few of the smaller players

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like South Africa and Ethiopia.

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But anyway, that block of countries.

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The BRICS countries now represents 37 percent of global GDP and 40

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percent of global oil production and a third of global gas production.

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So this is going to be the challenge to the US petrodollar system.

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Which I've mentioned on many occasions, but just as a refresher for those

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new to the podcast, is the deal done between the USA and Saudi Arabia

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was okay, you can sell your oil, but the money that you earn and the

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transactions you do it in must be in U.

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S.

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dollars.

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And then you must basically, what are you going to do with those U.

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S.

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dollars?

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You're going to invest them in U.

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S.

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treasury bonds.

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And so anytime anyone in the world has been buying oil, Even though

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the transaction didn't involve America, it did involve American

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dollars, creating a demand for U.

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S.

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dollars that has propped up the U.

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S.

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dollar despite the fact that the U.

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S.

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spEnds, well, prints money like a drunken sailor, and a normal country's currency

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would have been devalued and have caused economic problems, but because

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of this unique position that the U.

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S.

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has had as the world's default currency propped up by this petrodollar

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arrangement it's really enabled the U.

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S.

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A.

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to continue doing all the things it wants to do.

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And that's going to come to a halt over time quicker than people think, I reckon.

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There's my prediction, another prediction, whether it's just in the next 12 months

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or whether it takes longer, we'll see.

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But there are countries itching.

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to break away from having to hold US dollars.

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One reason is, if you hold US dollars in treasury bonds and the US takes a

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disliking to you, they just confiscate this money if it's in a bank account.

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So Venezuela, they just confiscated their US dollars.

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Russia, they just confiscated their money.

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And so a lot of countries have been reducing the amount of U.

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S.

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dollars they hold as foreign exchange currency, trying to

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decouple from that arrangement.

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And that's going to be a big problem for the U.

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S., so, and there's a lot of oil producers in the BRICS arrangement,

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and incredibly, I reckon Scott in that whole thing is, imagine getting

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together a group that included Saudi America, Saudi Arabia and Iran.

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Yeah, it's quite a hell of a lot that they did that.

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It's a very very good diplomatic coup that they managed to pull that off.

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Yeah, getting those two countries to agree and join a group is amazing.

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So it's out of interest, dear listener, who's the largest

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oil producer in the world?

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Which country?

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And you might think Saudi Arabia, but in fact, United States.

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Produces 20 percent of the world's oil, Saudi Arabia 12%, Russia

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11%, Canada 6%, China 5%, Iraq 5%, United Arab Emirates 4%.

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That's not bad by China, hey, 5%.

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Didn't realise that they did so much, so.

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So anyway, oil and the petrodollar.

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Watch that space over the year and the coming years.

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of Course.

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Western powerful oligarch companies involved in weapons manufacturing

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media, fossil fuels and other entrenched industries will not concede power.

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As I mentioned before, capitalism demands growth.

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There's a guy Thomas Piketty wrote, I think the book's called

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Capital in the 21st Century.

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Anyway, explains why the whole system relies on growth.

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And, there's been various tricks over the last 70 years to ensure growth.

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There's been world wars, we had double income, so essentially, where we had just

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traditionally the man going to work, the wife, house, homemaker and mother once

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women entered the workforce that was Um, uh, a factor that allowed expansion

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of GDP and growth for capitalism.

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Um, uh, through the IMF and the World Bank, various Western companies have

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been able to colonize South American countries and other smaller countries

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without actually bombing them.

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So that enabled growth for those Western we had low interest

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rates inflating asset prices.

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That was another trick.

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And we've recently had money printing and bailouts.

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And these are all things that have enabled growth to continue, at least

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on the books and for Western countries.

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And they've just run out of options.

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There's not many left.

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They can't think of any.

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You can't really repeat many of those.

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The only one you can repeat, unfortunately, is war.

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Running a war is something that can be repeated.

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USA's itching to start one.

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Itching to start one.

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Scott, you want to go to Taiwan before they start a war?

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No, I want to go to Taiwan while it's still the Republic of China

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before it becomes a new province of the People's Republic of China.

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So I'd like to see what the Republic of China is actually

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supposed to be like, rather than the People's Republic of China.

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I have been to the PRC.

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I went over there to visit my brother many, many years ago.

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Yeah, he lives in Beijing.

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He was very good.

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In the chat room, John says, what will the US do when the Arabs sell the bonds?

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Well, uh, when the demand stops for the US dollar, it will be devalued and what

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happens to all countries when they face chronic devaluation of their currency?

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It's not good.

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So, uh, so we'll see what happens.

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It's one of those things.

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If America was still a creditor country rather than a debtor country,

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they wouldn't have a problem.

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Because, you know, if the dollar falls in value and all that sort of stuff,

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they still get paid back in greenback.

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But, because they owe a shitload of money to the Chinese and everyone else,

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then their repayments are going to rise.

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So it's going to become very expensive for them.

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And I think that whichever party is in power and all that sort of stuff,

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they're going to have to look at their, they're going to have to look at their

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taxation system to actually return something back to the people and all

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that sort of stuff, because they cannot just continually run deficit budgets.

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You have to pay that, you have to pay those loans back at some stage.

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And You know, the United States has never run a surplus in its entire history.

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It's it came very close under Clinton.

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You mean a trade surplus or a government surplus?

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A government surplus, but never run one.

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They've always just had a deficit budget.

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It's always just an argument about whose deficit is going to be bigger.

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It's going to be the Democrats or the Republicans.

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And it's just one of those things.

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They've never had to pay anything back.

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And if their dollar actually does.

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decline in value, they're going to hurt because all that foreign

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currency's got to be paid back in U.

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S.

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dollars, which is going to cost them a hell of a lot more.

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Well, I'm not so worried about them running government deficits.

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It's more just trade is their problem, is that, is that buying

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stuff will get incredibly expensive when your dollar devalues.

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It will get incredibly expensive for them.

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They'll have difficulty importing things.

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Yeah, but because they were once a manufacturing superpower and all that sort

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of stuff, they just got to dust off their factories and that type of thing and just

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start producing it for themselves again.

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Yeah, there's a lot of rust to dust off.

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I know there's a lot of rust that you've got to dust off and all that

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sort of stuff, but it could be done.

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Yeah.

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You know, especially that with the CHIPS Act and everything

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else that's now starting, they are starting to reinvigorate the

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American manufacturing economy.

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It's going to take a hell of a lot more than just, you know,

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two bikes sitting here talking about it, but it could be done.

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It'll be very expensive, but it could be done.

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It couldn't be done without massive amounts of government spending,

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and they're not going to do that.

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I agree wholeheartedly, yeah.

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So they're not going to do that.

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Well, the Democrats have started that, though.

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You know, you've got the IRA, the Inflation Reduction Act, and you've got

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the CHIPS Act, which are all investing back in American manufacturing.

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It's started.

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Yeah,

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but we'll see.

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They just don't have the technical capacity to challenge on that issue now.

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No, not now they don't, because they have allowed And the cost

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of their labour is too expensive.

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Yeah, agreed.

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To be competitive with the world.

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Well, that's why they're gonna have to, if their, if their dollar

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actually declines in value Mm-Hmm.

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Then they're going to have to spend more.

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Mm-Hmm.

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But they're gonna be buying stuff that's produced locally than

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what they're gonna be importing.

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True.

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Because it ended up being cheaper to produce it Mac back at home

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than it will be to import it.

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True.

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Massive devaluation might kickstart the American manufacturing.

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Yes.

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It could kickstart them again.

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Mm-Hmm.

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It could, yes.

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I'm not saying it will, but it could.

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Yeah.

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Every clout has a silver lining.

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Well, it does for the American manufacturing unions and

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all that sort of stuff.

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I'd say this is a great deal for them.

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But, it's going to take some money and it's going to take some concerted

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political effort to get it done.

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Watley says Scott, America can never be what it was again.

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So, yeah.

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Yeah, but Watley, you are very much down on the Americans and will they ever

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be, will they ever be back here again?

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Will they ever be back to where they were?

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No, they won't.

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I think that ship has sailed, you know, they won't be ever getting back to where

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they were, but they could actually end up, they could end up being very comfortably

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in number two position behind China.

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Usually when empires fall, they sort of, yeah, they usually collapse.

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They, they usually collapse into a heap and that sort of stuff.

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And then, and the barbarians come in and it's quite a mess

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for a long time, isn't it?

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Yeah, it normally happens when Empire Falls could be.

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Yeah.

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You know, it, it could, it could.

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I mean, how's that Spanish Empire, the Portuguese Empire, the Belgium Empire the

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German Empire and the British Empires.

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How did they go after their decline, you know, it was, well, Britain

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was, Britain was a, it happened.

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It did decline and it went through a very long period of a very slow descent down.

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They're completely stuffed now.

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Yeah, they are, because they have, they have kicked a

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massive iron goal by leaving EU.

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Yeah.

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You know, it was a completely stupid thing for them to do.

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Anyway, they did.

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And God alone knows how long it's going to be before they actually

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realise what they've done.

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And whether or not they actually start secret talks with Belgium

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about possibly coming back in, you know, it's one of those things.

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I don't see how the hell they can do it, but they might be actually faced

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with no choice because it is, it was a completely stupid thing that was done.

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It was completely insane.

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Right.

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What else have I got here?

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Oh, the other thing that happened during the year, of course, was Nord

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Stream was blown up by the Americans.

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It's still not proven that it was the Americans, but it is highly, it is highly

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likely it was the Americans that did it.

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As a consequence, the German economy is now stuffed.

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Because it relied on cheap power to make stuff.

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It relied on cheap gas from Russia, which was a mistake.

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And also, by the same token, the other thing that they're doing, which is

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bloody stupid too, is that they They've gone ahead with their turning off their

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nuclear power, which is absolutely insane because, you know, they're not

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Soviet reactors, they were built by Germany and all that sort of stuff.

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There has not been one single accident in Germany.

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Now, at the same time as Germany was leading the world in renewable energy and

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all that type of thing, they also had a substantial amount of their electricity

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was generated by the nuclear industry.

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So it was very stupid of them to actually say that we're going to turn them off.

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Now, if they had not turned them off and all that type of thing, then they

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could have very slyly, but surely they could have converted their housing from

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heating by gas to heating by electricity.

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And they could have had a.

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flow of electricity from their nuclear power, while they were still building

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windmills and all that sort of thing, to transform to renewable energy.

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But they didn't.

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They went with cheap Russian gas, which was turned out to be a bloody mistake.

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Yeah, they didn't think the Americans would blow it up.

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So, yeah.

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I know, but they also probably didn't think that Ukraine was

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going to get invaded either.

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It's one of those things that I just think to myself that, you know,

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if you want the, if you want my argument on that, I think that Angela

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Merkel was responsible for that.

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John in the chat room says, I think the Germans have delayed

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the closure of nuclear power.

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He thinks they might have delayed the closure of it.

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Well, if they have, that would be very good, but I didn't hear that.

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I had heard that they were still going ahead with their closing

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down of the nuclear power.

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Dear listener, on this podcast, over the years, I've made it very clear

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that nuclear power in Australia is a completely nonsensical idea.

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Agreed, but in Europe, we have already been doing it.

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I have no idea about in Europe in particular because I just don't

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know whether they have the sun and the wind and I haven't seen the

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studies on those countries to see whether they can survive without it.

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I just know that we can.

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So, uh, all my comments about nuclear power have been basically about

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Australia and our experience here where we clearly don't need it.

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It's too expensive.

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It's a terrible option.

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But anyway, it might be.

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The best thing for Germans, I don't know.

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It's one of those things.

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It's a, it's a good transitional energy and all that sort of stuff that they

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could just continue to use at infinitum, but they've decided to walk away from it.

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So anyway, I hadn't heard that they hadn't heard that they were

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delaying the closure of them, John.

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I think the Americans blowing up Nord Stream have learned a

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lesson and they think actually that was a pretty good trick.

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Wouldn't surprise me.

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Here's another tip for 2024 and the years ahead.

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The Americans to blow up some other key infrastructure.

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Of Scott, either an enemy or of an ally, because it works both ways.

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So, in the case of Nord Stream, that was both.

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I mean, that was half owned by the Germans and the Russians, wasn't it?

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Like 50 50 ownership or something like that?

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I thought it was owned by the Russians, wasn't it?

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I thought, I thought they were, I thought they were shared ownership of that.

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So, so yeah, from the American's point of view, you know, if you're wanting

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to cause a problem for China, you know, blowing up a dam or something

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or causing some infrastructure damage might be something they would consider.

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So look for them to lash out and blow up some infrastructure somewhere.

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Why not?

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It worked with Nord Stream.

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Well, I heard you rule.

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So, yeah, here's another tip, Scott.

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If Trump does win, maybe he will cancel AUKUS and the submarine deal will

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finally be put down, because he might say, quite rightly, from an American

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point of view, we don't have enough subs as it is, and with his anti China

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rhetoric, he might say, I want us to keep the subs, I don't want Australia

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to have them, we don't have enough.

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I'm cancelling the deal and I'm cancelling effectively Orcus.

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That would be great.

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I'm all for a Trump victory if that's a potential result.

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It is a potential result.

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He is the sort of character who might do that.

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I've got an idea that Orcus has got a time limit on it, and if Trump wins then

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that time will be accelerated, you know.

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It's one of those things I think that we're going to have to go cap in hand

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to the Japanese and just say, look, you know, those, those 12 subs you're

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going to build for us, yeah, we want you to build them again, please.

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Those million, yeah, those, those 1 billion subs, as

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opposed to the 50 billion subs.

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Yeah, exactly.

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Yeah.

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Of course.

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The other thing that will happen climate change will continue, Scott,

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and there's a lot of cans that can be kicked down the road, but I think

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eventually climate change is the one that's going to perhaps create a bit

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of a catalyst for action on things.

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Well, you've only got to see the weather and that sort of

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stuff that we're experiencing up here in Queensland, you know.

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Amazing rain.

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Oh, it's incredible.

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Poor Douglas two metres in two days and things like that.

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Crazy amounts of rain, so, I think I think for every degree of temperature

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increase, the atmosphere can hold.

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7% more moisture.

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And so we've already increased 1.5% and so there's 10% more moisture in the air than

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there was say, 70 years ago or whatever.

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Mm-Hmm.

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And that moisture has to fall at some stage, leads to these

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massive downpours and also big snow events in cold countries.

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So, uh.

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Um, and Scott, we're just going to have more issues with, imagine these

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poor people in like, Springbrook and whatever had housing and their roofs

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blown off, trying to get a builder to come in and do insurance work

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and, and, you know, fix up a house.

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It's going to be really hard to get stuff done.

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So, uh, so yeah, climate change is one of the things that will have a continuing

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effect and Scott, I reckon all these things, cans get kicked down the road,

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nobody's prepared to do anything.

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It's all too hard and they just want to get through to the next election

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without having done anything and without having offended people and it's

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going to take maybe 50 or 100 years or some disaster might happen where

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we have quite a systemic collapse.

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I reckon at that point, Scott, we need to be ready with a new

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constitution and we What do with it?

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And people need to have it written out and argued and done and dusted

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and just put on in the top shelf.

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No, on a wall, Scott, behind a glass a sheet of glass with a sign on it,

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in case of emergency, break glass, and then we pull out a new constitution.

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I'd like to, Scott, this year, as part of our podcast, is imagine you know, It's

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some sort of apocalyptic event and, and we are charged with writing a constitution

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that would then they'd break glass and say, well, here's one we can use.

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People have had time to think about this in the cold light

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of day and argue about it.

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And we'll use this as a, as a better constitution.

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Here are some ideas, Scott, for what would be a better constitution.

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So proportional voting, Scott.

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So rather than.

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I'm not talking preferential voting, I'm talking proportional, so this

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sort of thing where we're just broken down into districts and we, and we

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have a member for our electorate just doesn't make sense to me.

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It should be all the voters, which what, 15 million or something

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like that Australian voters?

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I mean the population is 27 or 28 but the voting population

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is 15 or something like that.

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So, just, Voting for as a collective for our federal parliament, and if

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15 percent of us vote Green, then 15 percent of the federal politicians

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are Greens politicians, for example.

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What do you think of that?

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Proportional voting.

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Yeah, that doesn't make me offended or anything like that.

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I suppose the only real problem with that is you'd end up killing

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off the independents because they would have to get a hell of a lot

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more votes to actually win a seat.

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It's one of those things, I think, that would kill them off.

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I don't know, maybe you'd get No, I don't think get some national

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figures who could come in.

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Yeah, you could end up with Zali Stegall and that sort of stuff winning.

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Yeah, yeah.

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But I don't think you'd end up with the number of teals and that sort of stuff.

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They'd have to run under a banner of the teals.

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Hmm, yep.

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Then they'd have to get involved in that sort of stuff.

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They'd have to work together and all that type of thing.

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They'd have to run a party and that sort of stuff so they'd get up.

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Hmm.

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But it would be a breakdown of this two party system which Oh I would, absolutely.

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It's failed, it has failed, so I've got no problem with that.

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So yeah, break glass, new constitution, proportional voting.

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Intergenerational stuff, Scott, like, yeah.

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Now what do you mean by the intergen intergenerational routes of Norway?

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Well, what I'm saying here is, for example, in Norway, they've, when they,

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they've retained ownership of their oil.

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As they sell it, and the money from that goes into a wealth,

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sovereign wealth fund, right?

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And then the income from that is used for various projects, but the

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fund itself is not really touched.

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That's there for future generations, right?

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So, essentially, what we've got here in Australia is We're allowing private

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operators to mine and we're taking royalties, but we're not slotting

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that money away as sort of a capital.

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Yes, you want a sovereign wealth fund.

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Yeah, because it's really a theft by the current generations from

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the, from the future generations.

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And future generations ago, you bastards, you had this, you know, coal and gas and

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oil and iron ore and you sold it, but that was belonging not just to your generation,

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that was a multi generation asset.

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I, I think there should be some law to stop.

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Generations dealing from each other.

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Yeah, and I agree, and that would be something, if you're setting up a

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sovereign wealth fund and all that type of thing, that makes perfect sense.

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Yeah, so if you are extracting a capital item like that, that you

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can only do once Then you just can't spend it on recurrent expenditure.

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It's got to be on something that's lasting.

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Anyway term limits, Scott.

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Like, I like the idea that people can't hang around for too long as politicians.

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Like two terms, three terms or something, but move on.

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Post political career employment.

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There is absolutely no way these bastards who are, you know, Minister of Defence,

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can do Two weeks after leaving office.

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Or 12 Months, are suddenly taking up cushy jobs with

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Lockheed Martin and other groups.

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You just, you just can't allow it.

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Freedom of Information, where we've got to be able to just

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find out what is being discussed.

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There's way too much hidden secrecy.

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Media Literacy.

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There's no way of stopping the amount of deceptive shit out there.

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The only defense is to teach people how to recognize it.

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When they see it and smell it.

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War Powers.

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Scott came out recently over Christmas.

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Release of some cabinet papers that comes out every, every new year.

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Essentially John Howard taking us to war in Iraq.

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No written submissions, no detailed assessment.

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It was just him and a handful of people sitting around having a bit of a chat

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and saying, Yep, okay, well we're in.

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It was a pathetic Poor level of consideration for such a major thing.

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War powers should be the entire Parliament, House of Reps and

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Senate, comes together and votes.

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If you can't convince all those people and get a majority, then you don't

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have a good argument for going to war.

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And that's got to change.

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And things to do with climate change and inequality, the whole,

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you know, different things.

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We could do in terms of like none of this can possibly happen

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except in a crisis of some sort.

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But like Naomi Klein says with the book Shock Doctrine, if you haven't read

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that book, dear listener, go out and read it, which basically talks about

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how countries that suffer from a shock, whether it's an economic shock or a maybe

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a tsunami or, or some event like that.

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Basically, in the case of a tsunami, villages wiped out that had traditional

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sort of sea shacks on the foreshore and fishing villages and what not,

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they end up going to higher ground.

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Their, their residences have been completely wiped out and Corrupt

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governments and land developers move in, bulldoze what was, you know, the remnants

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of their homes and whack up you know, tourism developments before these people

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can gather together and, and readjust and And, and, and fight for their rights.

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And while they're still in shock, these other groups are sitting there waiting

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for this sort of event to happen.

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And they move in swiftly and do their dirty deeds while

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people are still in shock.

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And that's the whole sort of theory behind shock doctrine.

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So, yeah, that's that.

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What else have I said here Australia in particular?

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I think Murdoch's influence has to wane even further, Scott.

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As the boomers die out and just young people don't pay attention to it.

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They're not paying attention to the news.

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Hmm.

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Or newspapers.

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So, surely his influence has to wane.

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I suppose it depends on how good he's control is of the television.

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Because the television and that sort of stuff, that probably still grabs the kids.

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They don't watch Fredo.

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They don't watch Fredo.

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Well, you were just saying yourself, you don't watch it.

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Well, I don't watch Fredo.

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I just watch it on the on the Foxtel and that sort of stuff.

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You know, I just go and choose.

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I go and choose my news there.

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I go and choose the SBS news.

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So I just don't see young people consuming.

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Do they consume content from Murdoch much?

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No, they're not going to consume it in the volumes that our generation did.

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Our generation, you know, you probably still bought a newspaper

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and all that sort of stuff.

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You read it from cover to cover.

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I didn't buy a newspaper, but I watched, I listened to news radio and

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then watched the ABC and everything like that for an hour every day.

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I watched it between 7 and 8 every day.

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These days I just shift everything over to SBS because ABC's got really Pathetic.

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I read the Courier Mail every day, cover to cover, for a good laugh.

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That's where you get most of your content from.

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Yeah.

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So yeah I'd say yes, the housing problem in Australia, it's going to be exacerbated

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by natural disaster repairs and the Greens will force Labor to tinker with

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rent freezes and sort of Other stuff, but nothing substantial will be done.

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Here's a prediction, Scott.

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Less tattoos in Australia.

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Saw this article.

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Are you in favour of tatt Do you like tattoos, Scott?

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No, I don't like tattoos.

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You know, just, you know, to each their own, but not for me.

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Mm.

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So there's this article that said at the turn of the millennium, just 10

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percent of Australians over 14 had a tattoo, and they were mostly men.

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Now, dear listener, 20 percent of Australians have a tattoo, right?

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And they're mostly women.

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And I would actually believe that up here, like, there is an incredible

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number of ladies that have got tattoos on them, you know, and they're not

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just, they're not just subtle ones.

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They're getting the whole sleeve done.

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Yeah.

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The rise is driven by the young, about 30 percent of Aussies

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aged 22 to 36 have a tattoo.

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But, according to this article, the big issue right now, cost of

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living, inflation, adjusted wages are falling, tattoos have to be paid

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after rent, so people, he's saying, are sort of Struggling to afford a

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tattoo, and there's sort of evidence of tattoo shops or tattoo parlours,

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Scott Struggling to find clientele in recent times demand has dropped.

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And he says that over 50 percent of Australians get their first tattoo 25.

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And once you've got a tattoo, that gets you more tattoos.

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Most Aussies who have a tattoo have more than one.

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So if you make it to 25 without your first ink, you're far more likely

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to keep your skin as is forever.

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So maybe, with the cost of living crisis, people unable to afford them.

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If they can't afford them till they're over 25, then

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they may not get them at all.

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And and he also says, you know, it could become uncool because at the

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moment, most of these young people, their parents don't have a tattoo.

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But when your parents have a tattoo, suddenly it's not so cool, so, so the

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group coming through maybe it's spelling the end of the tattoo phase, so that's

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a change that that we're likely to see, so, Scott, sure, you have a question?

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Okay do any of your kids have tattoos?

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I found out that one does.

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Really?

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Yes.

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Boy or girl?

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Oh girl.

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Right?

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Yes.

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The youngest one?

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Yes.

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Tiny little, tiny little tattoo.

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But yes, we didn't know, and until Christmas.

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And so, essentially, those statistics, because I have three surviving

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children and what did it say?

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That um, Um, about 30 percent of Aussies aged 22 to 36, so one third, and yes,

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one third of my children have tattoos, and it was a girl was the one who had

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it, so those statistics bear out when it comes to my personal experience, Scott.

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But I find tattoos just, I've never seen, I just find them ugly.

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I find that The artwork, to me, is very aesthetically unpleasing to my eye,

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and I find them just things I saw this comment in this, I think it might have

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been in this article, that most tattoos look like something that your vaguely

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artistic friend Doodled into the back of his math pad during his spare time.

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Like, kind of what they look like.

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It's one of those things I, like Brian and I were talking rather existentially over

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New Year's Eve and that sort of stuff.

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And he says, what would you do if I died?

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I said, well I'd go get a tattoo of your name put on my, on my left

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side of my chest over my heart.

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He says, Oh, you wouldn't, would you?

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I said, No, I'm not.

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It's just one of those things that I don't have a desire for

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a tattoo or anything like that.

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It would have to be, it would have to be an existential threat to the two

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of us that would actually motivate me to go out there and get ink.

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Yes.

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Whatley says And I think I would stop at one though.

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I would stop at one.

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Watley says, it would be nice to not have to listen to the lame

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justifications given for their ink.

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Oh, ouch!

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Watley.

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I agree with you though, Watley.

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That is, it is one of those things, I, you know, they sit there and

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they talk about it and that sort of stuff, and I think to myself, does

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my face look like I'm interested?

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Because I'm not, you know?

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It's just yep, okay.

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And Maddock Man has finally made it to the chat.

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Good on you, Maddock Man.

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So, um Yeah, my dad joke that I like to tell when I ever talk about

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tattoos is You know, there's so many tattoos nowadays, that when I go to

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the beach, I don't take a book with me, I just read the guy beside me.

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Ha ha ha ha ha ha!

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Boom boom.

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Yeah!

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Right, I mentioned before, de dollarisation.

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And there's an interesting podcast called the Geopolitical Report,

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often gets into this sort of stuff.

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And Oh, quoting an economist there, and he says that if you adjust for the price

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changes in the dollar share of official global reserves so this is what countries

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hold in their reserve currencies, the it used to be 73 percent US dollars, and

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that's dropped to 55 percent in 2021.

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And then 47 percent in 2022.

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So from 73 percent to 47%.

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So he's saying there's already been a large drop in that.

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Right.

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Quickly just on Donald Trump as well.

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So I'll just play a little clip here from Donald Trump speaking about Qatar.

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And, he's initially talking in 2017 about Qatar, and then he's

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talking in 2018 about Qatar.

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See if you can spot the difference.

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At a very high level.

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We have a gentleman on my right who buys a lot of equipment from us, a

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lot of purchases in the United States.

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The nation of Qatar Sorry, I think I had that just starting not at the beginning of

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the clip, so I'm just going to rewind it back to the beginning and try that again.

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Here we go.

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The nation of Qatar, unfortunately, has historically been a funder of

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terrorism at a very high level.

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We have a gentleman on my right who buys a lot of equipment from us, a

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lot of purchases in the United States.

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Those countries are stopping the funding of terrorism.

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That includes UAE, it includes Saudi Arabia, it includes Qatar.

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Thank you.

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There we go.

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So in 2017, Qatar is a funder of terrorism.

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2018, stopping the funding of terrorism.

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Yeah, because they're purchasing weapons from the US.

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Well, and also in between those statements Qatar bought a 6.

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5 million dollar apartment at Trump World Tower.

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Hmm.

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I wonder if that had any connection to it.

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Of course it had everything to do with that because, you know,

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he's a corrupt old bastard.

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Yeah, sorry.

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Let's see.

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I can't get spurred for that, can I?

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Calling Trump a corrupt bastard?

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No, you'll be fine.

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That's good.

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Yeah.

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Right.

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Um, last podcast or the one before, I was talking about Yasha Monk and Identity

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Synthesis and listener Liam, who's been on the podcast and convinced you, Scott.

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He's convinced me to vote Green in the next two elections, after that I will

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be returning back to the Labor Party.

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There you go, yeah.

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So anyway, he referred me to an episode that was sort of critical of Yasha Monk.

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And good criticism in some respects, because he is one of these guys

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who sees woke stuff everywhere.

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And particularly spends a lot of time in his book talking about experiences in U.

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S.

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classrooms and universities and probably over eggs the problem of wokeness

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and identity in those environments.

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And this particular podcast which was on, it's called If Books Could Kill,

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so if you want to hear a criticism of Yasha Monk, go to the podcast If Books

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Could Kill and you'll see it there.

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But in my defence Liam, my sort of, review of Yasha Monk was really

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looking at what he had to say about Foucault and Derek Bell and Kimberley

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Crenshaw and that sort of development.

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And in that podcast they said that essentially the way that he described

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that process was essentially correct.

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So the bits that I extracted from the book for you, dear listener, were the bits

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that at least in that criticism I said, yeah, more or less he's got that right.

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And, I guess, if Monk was overstating racial profiling examples, I was

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reading it the voice in mind.

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And I don't think that was a minor matter of racial profiling myself.

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So, I think there you go Liam, that's my response to all of that.

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Everyone can have a look.

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at If Books Could Kill and Yasha Monk.

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He is one of those guys who will appear in the same sort of places

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that Jordan Peterson would appear.

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So, you know, that is a problem.

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You know, Dave Rubin will probably have him on, for example.

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That sort of thing.

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You've got to pick these things.

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Sometimes stop clocks are right.

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Garza, Scott.

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It's still going.

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It is incredible that the Jews, the most famous example of a persecuted

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group, could commit such an atrocious persecution of another group.

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Incredible.

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Yeah, I agree that their persecution of the Palestinians is wrong.

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I agree wholeheartedly with you there, however, given what Hamas has actually

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said about the Jews and that sort of thing, that they don't have a right

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to exist on their land and that sort of thing, that they should be wiped

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off the face of the earth from the river to the sea and that sort of

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stuff, it should be all Palestine.

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That means everything from the Jordan River to the Mediterranean

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Sea should be Palestine.

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Where's Israel going to sit in that?

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Yeah, but the five year old girls, the four year old boys, and the

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two month old babies are not the ones who have been saying that.

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I know that.

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I know it's a terrible, terrible thing that's happening.

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Just because Because they are being led by a group of people that are Brutal

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thugs who are actually using them as human shields and everything else,

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that they're trying to hide behind them so that the Israeli bombs are

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going to blow something up, so they're going to blow up the human shields

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that they're putting in front of them.

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Not even trying.

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The Israelis are purposefully just killing massive amounts of innocent people.

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They're dropping bombs knowing they're killing innocent people.

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They just don't care.

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Well, that doesn't surprise me.

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It honestly doesn't surprise me because if they would actually put the, if they

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would actually put the hostages on buses and move them back out, that would stop.

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The aerial attacks would stop immediately, and then they would withdraw from Gaza.

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But because they haven't.

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The Israelis are going to continue fighting until they're all dead, or

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they have liquidated the last of the Palestinians that are in their range.

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Imagine a handful of Aussies did something terrible on the world

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stage, and then whoever they did it to decided to persecute you and

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I, who had nothing to do with it.

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Yeah, that's true.

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I agree with you there.

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It's, it's one of those things.

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Too bad, Israel.

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You have to suck it up.

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What, they're going to suck it up?

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Yes, but the response that you have chosen is not acceptable.

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You have to find Okay, what sort of response should they do?

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You have to suck it up.

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You can't just bomb the Gaza.

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You have to find a way of working towards mutual cooperation.

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You can't just obliterate.

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Yeah, but Hermes has already said they will not cooperate with Israel.

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Well, that's, here's the problem, when you've, when you've just artificially

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plopped a group into an area and said to the existing people, too bad.

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I agree, I agree.

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A terrible mistake was made in 1947.

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So that's the Terrible, terrible mistake was made.

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Yeah, and that's the So as a consequence, they have to work as hopeless as that

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might be, but they just can't obliterate tens of thousands of innocent people.

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It's shocking this has happened, that the world is just watching on, and countries

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like the USA through the UN, refuse UN resolutions calling for ceasefires.

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For ceasefires, I know.

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And countries like the US supply weapons to them, allowing it to happen.

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It just shows how little faith we can have in the future when a country

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can just decide to just obliterate a group of people in response to that.

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What hope have we got?

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It's Anything's possible.

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One of those things.

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Had they not Had Hadamars not actually pulled the trigger on that October 7th

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attack, none of this would have happened.

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Well, what was happening already, though?

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What was happening already?

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Okay.

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They had them locked off.

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It's terrible.

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They had them locked out and that sort of stuff.

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They weren't allowing them to cross the border to get a work or anything else.

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They had them locked out in Israel.

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Yeah, so the sort of conditions, what this has done is highlighted what's

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been going on in the Gaza and in the West Bank and highlighting what

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an apartheid state they've created.

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Yeah, and you've actually got a group of people that feel like they've

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got no choice but to take up arms.

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So Israel is potentially also responsible for Hamas taking up arms.

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But, had they have actually not just walked away, had they have actually stayed

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on the negotiating table with Israel and all that sort of stuff, had they have

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taken the path that Egypt did and that sort of stuff after the Yom Kippur War,

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where they actually acknowledged Israel had a right to exist and all that sort of

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thing, they could have set up some sort of diplomatic relations, then they could

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have worked towards a two state solution.

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But Hamas said, no, fuck you, you got to get out, which I think is terribly

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childish in the, it's also terribly childish, but it's also playing with

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fire because Israel does not have a good record for walking away from a battle.

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I mean, they needed to do the hard work of encouraging more

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moderate Palestinian groups.

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Yeah, absolutely.

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Somebody they could deal with.

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Yeah, exactly.

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Rather than Netanyahu doing what he did, which was to encourage Hamas to

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knock off the Palestinian Authority, well, you know, all your chickens

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have come home to roost now, buddy.

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So anyway, they've completely obliterated the sympathy that the world has for

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And that is why there is so much anti Semitism being spilled around the place.

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It's not just, it's not just from Arab Australians or anything else.

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It is being spread throughout the world and it is coming up because Israel is

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behaving in such a terrible fashion.

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But is there, is there a lot of anti Semitism or is it just anti Zionism?

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Ah, it's probably more anti Zionism than anti Semitism.

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But anyway, it is, it's.

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It's got some expression as anti Semitism, but it is basically anti Zionism that

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is being, that is being pilloried about.

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Scott, we've come up to 8.

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34 and this podcast these days only lasts an hour.

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So, dear listener It's because Landon Hardbottom hasn't been in contact

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with us for a long time, has he?

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Yeah.

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So, so now, dear listener This podcast is going to change to Monday nights

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and at a slightly later time of 8pm.

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So, for personal reasons, They did want to start at 8.

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30, listeners, but I actually put my foot down because that's my bedtime.

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Yeah, so it will coincide with my my wife and I's, our job of looking after

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some grandchildren on Monday nights.

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And it will free up my Tuesday night to, Wealthy Listener, some of you

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may know that I'm a keen squash player and I'm trying to improve my

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squash and maybe enter some Masters events and in order to prepare for

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that I really need to play some comp nights, which are on a Tuesday night.

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And so, so yeah, there's no other special reason other than it suits me,

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so I can play squash on Tuesday nights occasionally, but so yeah, it's gonna

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be It suits me well too, because I can go to schooner runs on Tuesday nights.

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There we go.

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So in future, it's going to be on a Monday night as the regular night for the

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foreseeable future, starting next week.

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So we'll talk to you then, Monday night at the new time of 8 o'clock.

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Bye for now.

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And it's goodnight from him.

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George, where it is so clear it is a lynching at the highest level,

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nobody can deny it, and I thank God that we have people in the streets.

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Can you imagine this kind of lynching taking place and people are indifferent?

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People don't care.

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People are callous.

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You have just a few people out there with signs of I recall the moments

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in which during the Reagan years, there was a few of us out there.

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In the 60s, you had masses out there.

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Now you've got a younger generation of all of these different colors

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and genders and sexual orientations saying, We won't take it any longer.

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But you know what's sad about it though, brother?

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At the deepest level?

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It looks as if the system cannot reform itself.

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We've tried black faces in high places.

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Too often our black politicians, professional class, middle class,

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become too accommodated to the capitalist economy, too accommodated

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to the militarized nation state, too accommodated to the market driven culture

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tied with celebrity status, power, fame, all of that superficial stuff.

About the Podcast

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The Iron Fist and the Velvet Glove
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