Episode 310 - Christians, Covid and Afghanistan

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Hello, dear listener.

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This is the iron fist in the velvet glove podcast, episode 310.

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It's the 31st of August, 2021.

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I'm Trevor AKA, the iron fist back from a holiday in north Queensland.

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I'll tell you a little bit about that in a moment, but with me as always

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Shay the subversive, how are you?

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Good evening.

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I'm very well.

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Thanks.

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And Paul, the tech not pause cause I and Joe, the tech guy.

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How are you, Joe?

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I am already, I am.

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Yeah, I am.

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I miss the contrariness and the arguments.

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So all you're welcome to, to phone in and or in on and make a cameo appearance.

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Or like if you're in the chat, say hello and and join us and make some

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comments and we'll try and get to you.

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And we'll just run through, what's been happening over the last couple of weeks

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news and politics, sex and religion.

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Just briefly on a personal note, I'm back from my holiday.

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I was up in Cairns and I went to Fitzroy island and it is a

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completely different world up there.

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Dear listener.

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So if you were able to escape lockdown and just head to north Queensland and

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go like, it's great, there's no masks.

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And you're turning the clock back three years to pre COVID times.

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It was good.

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And Fitzroy island, you can just go there, stay in this resort type

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area and walk out onto the beach.

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And snorkel is coral is turtles.

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There's all that stuff.

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It's really, really good.

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So highly recommend that if you can get away.

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It can't get to Paris on New York next year, go to Fitzroy island.

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All right.

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So other things just sort of Noosa template site and stuff, we'll just

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we've got a lot of messages from people saying, Hey, did you guys see

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how you went viral on this thing?

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And there's a really strange thing happened on ABC, where on a news

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report, they did a story about some sort of stabbing of dogs.

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And, and it showed footage of us by mistake, as we exited the court.

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And then as the, as the sort of report audio, the audio

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and the video were mixed up.

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So the audio was about this dog stabbing and the, and the video was of us exiting

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the court on our court date, and then the audio sort of finished for the story.

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And then it came to to showing a shot of Rob.

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When he was doing his black mass saying hail Satan, and then

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straight from that, it goes back to the studio, to the newsreader.

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And she's just got this dead pan face speech, just completely

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nonplussed by what's happened.

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And then she starts reading her next story without any commentary.

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And I don't know, I didn't think it was that funny, but people found it

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hilarious and it went completely viral.

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There's a guy called Mickey indigo he's he's on tick-tock and normally his Tik TOK

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stuff gets maybe 6,008,000 sort of views.

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And his, his little video of us in this instance got 2.7 million views.

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And certainly the ABC version, just hundreds of thousands, it

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was an amazing viral moment.

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So.

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So to all those people who said, do you see this?

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Yes, we saw it.

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So, Joe, have you got a theory as to why it went viral, hail Satan and anything

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involving Satan is popular and I thing.

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So on the atheist side, and I think that's two fingers up to mainstream.

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Religion is popular and for the religious, it's a proof that at the

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end times are here, that Jesus is coming and the evil has taken over.

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It, it feeds into their motivation complex.

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Hmm.

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Yeah.

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It, apparently the algorithm worked and all these people in this sort of queue and

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on type thing, he worried about Satanists.

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This was proved to them that somehow satanic forces were at work.

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And that's the reason it went viral was because.

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It, it tapped into the algorithms for these crazy Cuellar non people.

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So that's one of the theories that anyway, it's to why it went so big.

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So, so yeah, that was so that was interesting.

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Okay.

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In the chat room, what lead Don?

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John, Chris.

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Good on you.

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And I think I mentioned Ross, I think saw Ross in there.

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So yes.

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Or I'd keep making comments.

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We'll try and get to them if we can.

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All right.

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Now still on sort of news, a template of site and stuff.

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This, I saw a post from the Queensland parents for secular state schools, where

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they had stumbled across a, a school, which was the Bundaberg east state school.

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So on their website, they said that they offer religious instruction and

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they listed the number of faiths that are offering religious instruction

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at this government school in bundle.

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25 of them, 25 different faiths.

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Or did you see this one?

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Charlie or Joe, or only when I sent it to you?

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I did.

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Yeah.

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Yeah.

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Was it 25 providers or was it 25 religions have signed up to a group provider though?

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It was probably done as a group thing.

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I'm not sure about that, but Ann street, gospel, chapel apostolic church of

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Queensland Bundaberg Baptist church under the Bible chapel Bundaberg

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Catholic communities, Bundaberg church of Christ, Bundaberg west

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Baptist Christ, church Anglican, city coast, church, coral coast, Christian

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Church, Crofton street, gospel hall.

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Good shepherd Anglican.

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It just goes on and on.

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I wonder, did, did any of them have to go to the Supreme court to prove

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the common faith for their followers?

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Because Christian Christianity has given a shoe in isn't it?

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Yeah.

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Yeah, exactly.

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Mind you Crofton street, gospel hall.

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Yep.

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The only one that didn't have Christian in the name I could community church.

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If we had just called ourselves a Noosa church of Christ, we

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would have been straight in.

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So it's it's anyway, they make the, the point Queensland pants

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for secular state schools.

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Like some of these groups are outrageous, for example, the

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Crofton street gospel hall.

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If you look at their website they say things like they've got a question,

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answer area in their website.

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Do women speak or contribute to your services?

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Answer?

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No limit do not take audible part in our services.

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We believe the Bible is very clear on this point, quite

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Corinthians chapter 14, verse 34.

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Another question.

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Do the women in your church have their heads covered?

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Yes.

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Once again, we believe that this is what the Bible teachers and

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they quote the scripture for that.

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So they're really hardcore.

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Do they wear mixed fabrics?

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Is the question.

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Yeah.

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Yeah.

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So that's the sort who can waltz into our government school system

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putting women in their place.

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And they're worried about sadness and stoning.

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They're unruly children.

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Yes.

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So, so good on you Queensland pants for secular state school for for

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finding that group and As I said here, how messed up the RI system is

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in this state and how selective the concern of the education department

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is about who gets into our schools.

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It's more worried about the letter of the law and the optics can't let in those evil

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Satanists, but the door is wide open to groups with sexist and backward thinking.

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If they just call themselves Christians, very true members of the national party.

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Yes.

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Thanks.

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To keep up with what happens with voluntary assisted dying

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in Queensland, the health and environment committee report came out.

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And basically there were no surprises.

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The three ALP members supported the proposed bill for voluntary

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assisted dying in its entirety.

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There was a dissenting report from the one nation MP.

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Steve Andrews.

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He played the I'm a Christian card saying it was reckless.

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And he also played the south sea Islander card saying there's a lack of consultation

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with indigenous Queenslanders.

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And there was a Dr.

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Monique Robinson had a dissenting report that just parroted

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the position of cherish life.

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But the deputy LMP, Rob mole awake he made a statement of reservation and took

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a swipe at labor and quoted Wendy Francis.

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But there weren't any real objections from him.

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So maybe the LNP might be getting nervous about the overwhelming public

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support for voluntary assisted dying.

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So, so that'll be interesting to see how that pans out.

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So so I did see the Catholic response.

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What did it say?

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They said that they didn't care what the law was.

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They weren't going to allow it on their property.

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It's okay.

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So that was with the hospitals?

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Yes.

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So the master hospital and all of the respite care and all of the end

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of life facilities, the Catholic church, which apparently is 30%, 40%

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of the state's beds for aged care.

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Catholic facilities provide one in five.

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Okay.

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One in five, only 20%.

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They went freedom.

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Yes.

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I'm the hospital.

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As I see fit, I want the freedom to interfere in your life.

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Yes.

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And to ignore the laws of the land that everyone else has to

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abide by, because they're special.

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Yes.

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Because yeah.

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So the Catholic hospitals, I say they will defy Queensland's euthanasia law.

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So the martyr they're not euthanasia laws.

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There's no euthanasia involved.

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Yes.

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But that's how they describe it.

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Yeah.

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So they say they won't be exceeding to the laws.

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We will not tolerate non-credentialed doctors coming on site, normally assist

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in the provision of voluntary assisted dying in any of our facilities, said

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Francis Sullivan chair of the Marta group.

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So it sounds to me like grounds for compulsory purchasing back.

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I think we could probably take the children's hospital back

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for the amount that the Catholic church were going to buy.

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It wasn't a dollar, it couldn't point, but it takes so much of our money to

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run these things and then they don't want to be part of it basically.

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Yeah.

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It's just, it's this whole.

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It's just like the people with the lockdowns, it's buggy, the rest of you.

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I just want to do what I want and I just don't care.

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And I deserve government funding to do that.

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Yeah.

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Okay.

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Victoria, navigate this when they legislated it they didn't

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have this section in, so down there they were exempt.

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So Queensland is the first to really put the hard word on and try and force

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the Catholic institutions to comply.

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So let me just see what it says here.

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Deputy premier, Stephen Miles said cases where VAD doctors

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would offer services at faith run facilities would be very, very rare.

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It's only those circumstances where it would be unfair would cause

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unnecessary suffering to transfer the patient to a provider where

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those services can be provided.

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So I think from memory, it was if people are in a Catholic hospital

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and I want to access voluntary, assisted dying, the hospital has

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to assist them in transferring to a hospital that will allow it.

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I think that's the way the law is written.

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But if for some circumstance it can't be done.

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Then under the law, the Catholic system has to offer the service or

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allow other doctors in to offer the service to allow other doctors in.

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Yeah.

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So really Steven Miles is saying it's going to be pretty rig

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case where somebody is in such a state that they can't transfer.

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So this all comes back to a case in Canada, where there was this person who.

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Was in enormous pain and had to be taken out of pain relief in order to be

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competent enough to sign these documents and then had this horrendously painful

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ambulance journey to another hospital that was like, excrutiatingly painful.

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So it does happen where people can't be moved.

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So so yeah, Catholics just saying, well, we'll take all of your

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money, all of your society's stuff.

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But when there's laws passed, we don't like, we'll just bug you.

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Yeah.

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Well, it was like the mandatory reporting that they raised to do.

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Yes.

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Yep.

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So just in the chat room John salmon sets the word euthanasia is

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derived from the Greek word youth.

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They're not toss, meaning easy death.

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Hmm.

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But the point was euthanasia is where the doctor ministers, the medicine

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it's voluntary, assisted dying is the doctor prescribes the medicine, but

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it's the patient who, by their own hand.

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Yup.

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Yup.

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Although I think the legislation allows for assistance if they're not

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capable of it, possibly Marie yeah.

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From memory.

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So okay.

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Just looking at the chat okay.

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Now still on some Christian bashing, they've given a bit

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in the last couple of weeks.

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So Matt Niles he's come out and said that.

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So the Australian Christian lobby believes it says that believers

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should push for COVID freedom.

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So he's big on anti locked down and pro freedom.

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And.

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Basically says that Christians shouldn't be afraid of dying.

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Because ultimately if you're a good Christian where you're going to go,

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which is interesting because I've heard hospital orderlies and nurses

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who talk about end-of-life care.

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And they said, it's the Christians who are deathly afraid.

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Whereas those with after religion, RSDs, those who are true, believers

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are almost certain that they're going to hell because, because

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it's a vengeful and petty God.

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Yes.

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So Richard Dennis in a tweet said something like, well, I'm confused.

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The so-called pro-life Christians who were antique voluntary, assisted

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dying, because you don't want to die early, earlier than necessary.

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I prefer people to be able to die because they want to go shopping.

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I think maybe.

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Prove their faith by doing some snake handling like, like the the ones in

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the Southern us having rattlesnakes to prove that God will protect them in.

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We, one of them gets bitten and dies, that sort of thing.

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So okay.

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What else in the chat room?

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So at that, okay.

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It's still on the Australian Christian lobby.

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And let me share this screen, if it comes up which they put out a full

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page ad, which was, are you safe at work to talk about your faith?

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Australians of faith have the right to protection.

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And then they repeat this quote of Scott Morrison.

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When he said religious freedom is a core pillar of our society

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and it's not unreasonable.

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And I think there are many millions of Australians who would like to see.

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Protected and I intend to follow through on that commitment.

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So this is the Australian Christian lobby putting the hard word on

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Scott Morrison about passing the religious discrimination bill.

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And, but the whole point is the whole point is their question.

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Is, are you safe at work to talk about your faith?

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Well, everybody is except if you're a non-Christian working

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in a Christian workplace.

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Oh no, no.

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It's actually the very people.

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So I have an equal opportunity employer.

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I'm sure if I was to rig it, ridiculed the younger creationists

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in my office, I would find myself on the wrong end of an HR complaint.

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So I'm not free to talk about like, yeah, yeah.

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Or let's face it in Australia.

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If somebody is going to be persecuted because of their faith in the workplace.

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The most likely scenario is that you're a, non-Christian working in a

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Christian school and they found out and they put somebody else in there.

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Like that's the person most likely to be persecuted or as the lesbian, the

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other week that they had a difference of opinion as to whether or not you could

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be a good Christian and have sex outside of a marriage between a man and a woman.

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Yes.

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So just you know, the, just so Shane was these people, facts don't matter.

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I've nearly finished my, I have finished my rant on Christians actually.

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Now I've got one more to go.

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When you just, before you move on.

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I just I, I love a good rally.

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Makes me feel peaceful.

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And on the 4th of September, there will be a gathering with among rainbow light.

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To stop religious discrimination.

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So anyway, because any Brisbane listeners I'll be there, I should be there.

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One pitch has been square.

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The worst suggestions that possibly something else could be done, like a

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rally with cars, where everyone stays in their cars and just proceeds in that way.

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So that there isn't like a car rally.

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Yes.

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Rather than a mass gathering of people,

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it might've been canceled since then.

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I think I only received that last week or raise fairly recently.

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I'll follow it up anyway.

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Yeah.

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Yeah.

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Doors.

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We could do that.

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There's no problem.

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If doors be fine.

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Well, I'm moving in the wrong circle shape.

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Clearly, I subscribed to everything about religion that's going on in Australia.

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And I'm a member of the labor party.

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I had no idea that this is going on.

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Yeah.

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Yeah.

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And, and I'm a good mates with Robin Bristow.

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One of Australia's most notorious gaming, like famous infamous.

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Yeah.

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Infamous.

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So okay.

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Well I missed that one, so, okay.

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So 4th of September.

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And where is it?

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It's just a March Brisbane square.

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Yeah, I appreciate it.

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Yep.

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Yes.

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4th of September stop religious discrimination.

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Okay.

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I'll try and get to that.

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Fortunately, one of the I'd rather you didn't.

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For the church of the flying spaghetti monster is not about

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or is about not proselytizing.

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So I'll be, I'll be unable to proselytize to the Christians at work.

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Once this religious freedom bill comes through is like I said, they non

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proselytizers the church of the flying spaghetti monster part of like the

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do's and don'ts combined convert people to proselytize is to try and convert.

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So a school chaplains, for example, who must be religious to have the

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job are not allowed to proselytize, meaning they're not allowed to

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try and sell their religion.

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Yeah.

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Yep.

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And finally, yes, finally, I'm a bit of religious bashing.

Speaker: 00:20:09

Ryan Houston has been charged, so head of the Hillsong church and new south

Speaker: 00:20:15

Wales police I've charged him now.

Speaker: 00:20:19

Be careful everybody with defamation laws here maybe remain silent if

Speaker: 00:20:23

you don't know for sure, but I'm just reading from what I've got.

Speaker: 00:20:26

Crikey here.

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So he's been charged in relation to how he handled the case of Brett sang stock.

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As a little boy was sexually abused by Frank Houston, the pioneering figure of

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what would become Hillsong in Australia.

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So Brian Houston's dad, Frank Houston is dead seeing savvy

Speaker: 00:20:43

like about Frank Houston.

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You'll be okay.

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And he was a pedophile and it was all about the delay in Brian

Speaker: 00:20:50

Houston, notifying the authorities of what his father was up to.

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So which he had lied to in the Royal commission.

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Yes.

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So he admitted to a delay to knowing it.

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So the criminal charge relates to events from two decades ago when

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Houston failed to notify police.

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When he allegedly became aware that he's fine, At sexually abused a young boy.

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So this all comes under section 3, 1 6 of the new south Wales crime act.

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And the elements of it are the accused person knows, believes, or reasonably

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ought to know that a child abuse offense has been committed and they know

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believable, reasonably ought to know they have information that might be of material

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assistance in securing the apprehension of the offender or prosecution.

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And they fail without reasonable excuse to bring that information to the attention

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of the police as soon as practicable.

Speaker: 00:21:48

So the question will be what would be reasonable excuse to not bring

Speaker: 00:21:53

the information forward to the police about your father abusing a boy.

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And there's a list of available reasonable excuses.

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It includes things where it khesed reasonably believed

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that the police already know.

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Or where the alleged victim is an adult at that time that the accused finds

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out about the offense and the accused reasonably believes that the alleged

Speaker: 00:22:19

victim doesn't want the police to be told.

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So and the accused can also try for a reason, Annabelle,

Speaker: 00:22:25

excuse, not in the list.

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So there are other things.

Speaker: 00:22:27

So anyway, it's going to come down to what was his reasons for not

Speaker: 00:22:33

giving notice to the police and it have symmetry going on here.

Speaker: 00:22:38

We've got Brian Houston, big Powell of Scott Morrison on, on a charge

Speaker: 00:22:45

related to Charlie pal of the former police commissioner of new south Wales.

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Yes.

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And not so long ago we had Cardinal pill, big power of the then of prime minister

Speaker: 00:22:59

of what was he then prime minister No.

Speaker: 00:23:01

I think Tony Tony Abbott was he prime minister at the time.

Speaker: 00:23:05

And the charges in any event, high profile sort of Peter file related cases.

Speaker: 00:23:12

Not that Brian Houston's charged with failure, but concealment.

Speaker: 00:23:17

Yes.

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So of course, Brian Houston's main claim to fame is that Scott Morrison invited

Speaker: 00:23:25

him to the white house as part of a group that we're going to the white house.

Speaker: 00:23:28

Do you remember that show?

Speaker: 00:23:29

Yes, I do.

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Yes.

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And, and you know, it's a real badge of honor for Brian Houston that he, he

Speaker: 00:23:38

was, his character is such that even the Trump white house said we better not have

Speaker: 00:23:42

this guy here, knocked him back our bad.

Speaker: 00:23:46

If you've got a boom right.

Speaker: 00:23:49

Well, it just wouldn't be 2021.

Speaker: 00:23:51

If we didn't talk about cars, Step yourselves in it.

Speaker: 00:23:54

Listen, I know you might be a little bit tired of it, but some

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interesting stuff has come out.

Speaker: 00:24:01

The essential report came out today.

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So so I've got some stuff here, which is how would you rate your state government's

Speaker: 00:24:10

response to the COVID 19 outbreak and probably no surprise that when it comes

Speaker: 00:24:18

to writing your state as a good response in new south Wales, 40% Victoria,

Speaker: 00:24:24

44%, meanwhile, Queensland 67, south Australia, 76 in Western Australia, 78.

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So there's going to be a common theme in these opinion, polls where new south

Speaker: 00:24:34

Wales and Victoria pretty bad in terms of what people are thinking of them.

Speaker: 00:24:38

So so yeah.

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How would you rate your state government's response?

Speaker: 00:24:41

New south Wales in Victoria, people in Victoria, really angry.

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The ones I talked to anecdotally.

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What else have I got here?

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The next one is but lockdowns don't work.

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Yeah.

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And basically, you know, it wasn't that long ago, 7th of

Speaker: 00:25:02

June, that new south Wales, was it 69% and now it's down to 40%.

Speaker: 00:25:07

So it was second top at one stage down to the bottom in terms of approval

Speaker: 00:25:13

by the public of their response is an interesting one is thinking about

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the lightest COVID lockdown area.

Speaker: 00:25:21

Do you think the restrictions are too strong about right too weak?

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And this was only in places where it actually had been a lockdown.

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Yeah.

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And essentially for thinking it was too strong.

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The new south Wales, 28% Victoria, 35% Queensland, 20 south Australia,

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12 Western, Australia, 30.

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So and in the about right states it was new south Wales and

Speaker: 00:25:47

Victoria performing the worst.

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And let me just see if we've got, I think people are getting to the point

Speaker: 00:25:54

where they start to lose patience with the lockdowns in Victoria, especially.

Speaker: 00:25:59

And this is the one that I really wanted to get to, and that is what do

Speaker: 00:26:05

you think about this deal this night?

Speaker: 00:26:06

What do you think is an acceptable number of deaths to

Speaker: 00:26:11

deal with per year from COVID?

Speaker: 00:26:14

So there's a lot of talk happening at the moment.

Speaker: 00:26:19

When do we open up our economy?

Speaker: 00:26:21

When do we stop with the lockdowns at what percentage vaccination, right.

Speaker: 00:26:25

Do we decide that's it we're really going to avoid lockdowns unless there's

Speaker: 00:26:29

something quite extraordinary happening.

Speaker: 00:26:31

And we know there are going to be some infections and we know

Speaker: 00:26:34

there's going to be some deaths and we just have to live with some.

Speaker: 00:26:37

And so the question is what, what's the number of deaths per year?

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That for the, for the whole of Australia, that you would consider

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acceptable number for us to sort of stop this lockdown situation shy.

Speaker: 00:26:54

Did you have an, a number in your mind that you would have thought was,

Speaker: 00:26:58

was reasonable for Australia in terms of number of deaths that you would

Speaker: 00:27:05

have thought, ah, a thousand a year.

Speaker: 00:27:07

Fair enough.

Speaker: 00:27:07

That's if, if or 2000 or a hundred, like, did you have a number in mind?

Speaker: 00:27:14

I, I probably haven't really considered the consequences of people dying, but both

Speaker: 00:27:19

my mom and my younger sister are nurses.

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So I just sort of consider it from how many beds we have and yeah, where

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like, yeah, I don't have a number of pop, but that's all I think about it.

Speaker: 00:27:33

I think about the risk to my youngest sister is already puts herself at risk

Speaker: 00:27:38

in a general medical ward all the time is frequently, you know pushed already.

Speaker: 00:27:43

That's what I think about is the number of beds in hospitals the whole time.

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Yep.

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Yep.

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Judge, do you have a number in your head if they said, well, when vaccinations

Speaker: 00:27:54

reach 80% of the adult population and we calculate that, that will mean.

Speaker: 00:28:02

A thousand deaths a year and we decide we're going to open up to just

Speaker: 00:28:06

does a thousand sound like an okay.

Speaker: 00:28:08

Number to you.

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Is there a number that, you know, go ahead that you think so, so flu

Speaker: 00:28:14

is I believe around 1500 a year.

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Yes.

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So if it was around 1500, it would be equivalent to flu.

Speaker: 00:28:24

The question is, if we're adding that on top of flu, we've now

Speaker: 00:28:27

doubled the death rate a year.

Speaker: 00:28:30

And also, I don't know that flu has the ongoing complications, so it

Speaker: 00:28:38

isn't measuring it against the flu, a valid proposition anyway, like,

Speaker: 00:28:43

well, it's considerably tagine, but they're talking about it becoming

Speaker: 00:28:47

endemic and having COVID seasons.

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Like we have flu seasons.

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Yeah.

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So if it was an equivalent.

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A problem that flu is we've lived with flu for a long time.

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Now, obviously with all the lockdowns we've had, we've had no

Speaker: 00:29:05

flu, we've had absolutely yeah.

Speaker: 00:29:08

Record low numbers of flu cases.

Speaker: 00:29:10

So, and that they think that the bounce back is that we're going to have a

Speaker: 00:29:14

bad flu season when we do open up.

Speaker: 00:29:17

But if we had a similar number of people in total, I think dying or flu and COVID

Speaker: 00:29:23

I think that's a relatively valid call.

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The question is, you know, in terms of not mortality, but morbidity, if we

Speaker: 00:29:33

have people with long-term disabilities because of COVID there may be, the

Speaker: 00:29:37

answer is the same as with with measles where we are aiming for zero.

Speaker: 00:29:43

And just because the current vaccine.

Speaker: 00:29:45

Isn't great.

Speaker: 00:29:47

Doesn't mean that the next generation won't be, if, for example, they were

Speaker: 00:29:53

saying, look at 80% we could stop lockdowns pretty much, except in

Speaker: 00:29:59

quite extraordinary circumstances.

Speaker: 00:30:02

And we know for example, 2000 people are going to die, but if we waited another

Speaker: 00:30:10

year and got up to 90%, then we would know that basically zero would die.

Speaker: 00:30:17

For example, just as a hypothetical.

Speaker: 00:30:19

So I'm just trying to paint it in a hypothetical situation.

Speaker: 00:30:23

I sort of think we've reached the point where we are prepared to spend

Speaker: 00:30:28

or to cop a couple of thousand lives.

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I reckon in order to, to get the whole of Australia back to.

Speaker: 00:30:40

If it, if, if, if it got Australia back to normal, I would, I

Speaker: 00:30:42

would've thought the figure would be around a couple of thousand.

Speaker: 00:30:46

I don't think we're ever going to get back to normal.

Speaker: 00:30:48

There's talk about masks being a long-term thing.

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Yes.

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Yes.

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But, but in sense of lockdowns stopping and businesses, being able to open

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pretty much all the time now they might be, well, I think international

Speaker: 00:31:00

travel is probably the peak one.

Speaker: 00:31:02

Yeah.

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So anyway, the essential report did a survey and they said, how many deaths

Speaker: 00:31:09

nationally from COVID-19 do you think is acceptable to live with in Australia

Speaker: 00:31:15

as locked down, restrictions are removed and the head less than a hundred

Speaker: 00:31:21

between a hundred and a thousand between 1,003 thousand, between 3000 and 5,000

Speaker: 00:31:26

and more than 5,000 deaths per year.

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And.

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Biggest one by long way was less than a hundred per year,

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which was 61% of respondents.

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The next was between a hundred and a thousand deaths per year.

Speaker: 00:31:44

That was going to be acceptable to 25% of the respondents.

Speaker: 00:31:47

And then between 1,003 thousand deaths per year is probably where I am.

Speaker: 00:31:52

And I'm in a mere 10% of the population on that one.

Speaker: 00:31:55

So I was quite shocked that the current thinking was that lockdowns

Speaker: 00:32:01

can't end if there's a risk of more than a hundred deaths per year,

Speaker: 00:32:07

that seems a very low number to me.

Speaker: 00:32:09

I don't know that it's surprised by that.

Speaker: 00:32:12

Yeah.

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Yeah.

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I don't think it is either.

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I mean, what's yeah.

Speaker: 00:32:17

I, that to me was an unrealistic figure to think that.

Speaker: 00:32:23

If as the acceptable figure, it was why too low, I think, in the

Speaker: 00:32:26

chat room, what do you think?

Speaker: 00:32:28

What was your in your chat room?

Speaker: 00:32:30

Could you let me know what you think in your head you would have thought as the

Speaker: 00:32:35

acceptable annual death rate from COVID to live with in Australia is locked down.

Speaker: 00:32:40

Restrictions are removed.

Speaker: 00:32:41

So yeah, that shocked me.

Speaker: 00:32:43

And just on that figure, so 61% went for a hundred deaths or less per year.

Speaker: 00:32:50

In terms of female, 70% of females thought that 52% of males, so females

Speaker: 00:32:55

more likely to be quite conservative.

Speaker: 00:32:57

So so what lead the wizard says it may not be a realistic figure,

Speaker: 00:33:01

but I think it demonstrates how many people are inherently decent.

Speaker: 00:33:05

I'm feeling like I'm not decent with that one.

Speaker: 00:33:07

What leaks

Speaker: 00:33:10

all the way up, like it's.

Speaker: 00:33:13

Because there is a weighing up this of, you know, the lockdowns do have an

Speaker: 00:33:19

emotional cost and they, I mean, yes.

Speaker: 00:33:23

It's yeah.

Speaker: 00:33:24

The other question is when we tap these figures of, you know,

Speaker: 00:33:27

70 or 80%, is that of the total population or is that yes, adults?

Speaker: 00:33:34

Like the dynamic.

Speaker: 00:33:36

How about exile?

Speaker: 00:33:36

I guess people don't really think of kids dying from it.

Speaker: 00:33:39

It doesn't matter if kids are unvaccinated, then it

Speaker: 00:33:42

will spread through the kids.

Speaker: 00:33:43

And if you're an 80% of adults, 60% of the total population.

Speaker: 00:33:49

Yeah.

Speaker: 00:33:50

Correct.

Speaker: 00:33:50

So I think this would have been talking about people 16 years, plus

Speaker: 00:33:53

I think so time to move on to some modeling and let me just quickly

Speaker: 00:33:59

see where we are on that one.

Speaker: 00:34:01

So.

Speaker: 00:34:02

I'll get rid of that stuff on the screen.

Speaker: 00:34:04

So we all look a bit bigger, right.

Speaker: 00:34:07

So what do we have here?

Speaker: 00:34:09

It's going to be the pandemic of the unvaccinated essentially

Speaker: 00:34:12

is what is becoming obvious.

Speaker: 00:34:15

So bricks, now this article might be a week old or something, but at

Speaker: 00:34:20

that point, current numbers from new south Wales shall have the 66

Speaker: 00:34:23

people in ICU, 59 are not vaccinated.

Speaker: 00:34:27

Seven have had one dose.

Speaker: 00:34:28

No one currently in ICU or requiring ventilation has been fully vaccinated.

Speaker: 00:34:32

So that was in Sydney probably about a week ago.

Speaker: 00:34:37

By the age of that article.

Speaker: 00:34:38

I'm not exactly sure.

Speaker: 00:34:39

I, I honestly, 98% in the states critical care patients or deaths are on vaccines.

Speaker: 00:34:47

Yep.

Speaker: 00:34:48

So it's going to be a pandemic of the unvaccinated in Iceland.

Speaker: 00:34:51

They've got 93% of the population, 16 years or older vaccinated, they're

Speaker: 00:34:56

getting 2,783 cases over the past 30 days.

Speaker: 00:35:02

They've had no deaths in the past 30 days from COVID because that high

Speaker: 00:35:05

vaccination rate, so what we need to do is a quick recap on our national plan.

Speaker: 00:35:13

So this was about phase I B, C, and D I say, phases on stun.

Speaker: 00:35:19

Does do people stay?

Speaker: 00:35:21

Yeah, the plan was it, the plan is to get Morrison reelected.

Speaker: 00:35:26

That's the plan.

Speaker: 00:35:27

That seems to be the plan.

Speaker: 00:35:30

Yeah.

Speaker: 00:35:30

So there was phase a phase B phase C and phase D.

Speaker: 00:35:34

So phase I was pretty much where we are at the moment.

Speaker: 00:35:38

Phase B was supposedly 70% vaccination.

Speaker: 00:35:43

Where lockdowns would be less likely.

Speaker: 00:35:46

And some of the special rules would be easing restrictions

Speaker: 00:35:51

on vaccinated residents.

Speaker: 00:35:52

So maybe vaccinated people would have a bit more freedom to oh,

Speaker: 00:35:58

Constance or something like that.

Speaker: 00:36:01

Oh, no, you do that.

Speaker: 00:36:02

Yeah.

Speaker: 00:36:03

So that was guys be 70% vaccination lockdowns, less

Speaker: 00:36:07

likely maybe some special deals.

Speaker: 00:36:10

If you're vaccinated in phase C, that was 80% vaccination.

Speaker: 00:36:15

Now this is sort of 16 years and older.

Speaker: 00:36:19

And what that was looking at was highly targeted lockdowns only, and looking

Speaker: 00:36:26

at potentially exempting vaccinated residents from all domestic restrictions.

Speaker: 00:36:31

So so pretty much that was phase C.

Speaker: 00:36:35

Phase D was basically going to be highly quarantined for

Speaker: 00:36:39

high risk inbound travelers.

Speaker: 00:36:40

So this sort of 70% lockdowns, less likely 80% highly targeted lockdowns only.

Speaker: 00:36:51

And so there was a report called the Dougherty report, which has come out and

Speaker: 00:36:58

it was asked to define a target level of vaccine coverage for transmission,

Speaker: 00:37:04

but for transmission, for to phase B of the national plane, where lockdowns

Speaker: 00:37:10

would be less likely but possible.

Speaker: 00:37:12

So so the Dougherty report is what's been talked about a fair bit lately, and

Speaker: 00:37:18

I'm just going to put up on the screen now, a bit of luck, but the dirty report

Speaker: 00:37:25

summary is for those in the chat room.

Speaker: 00:37:29

So.

Speaker: 00:37:32

If the vaccination rate for 16 years and older was 70% that would

Speaker: 00:37:38

mean of the total population.

Speaker: 00:37:39

It's 56%.

Speaker: 00:37:41

And they thought that if there was effective what they called testing

Speaker: 00:37:49

tracing isolation and quarantine that would still have to go on

Speaker: 00:37:52

the deaths might be 1,520 at 70%.

Speaker: 00:37:57

And at 80%, the deaths might be 980 per year.

Speaker: 00:38:03

So that's what the Dougherty report kind of came up with.

Speaker: 00:38:07

In a nutshell, the problem was the dirty reports seem to

Speaker: 00:38:12

be premised on us, starting.

Speaker: 00:38:16

Not many cases, which meant that the testing and tracing and the isolation

Speaker: 00:38:21

and the quarantine would be quite effective because there wouldn't be

Speaker: 00:38:25

that many people sick so that the testing and tracing authorities could

Speaker: 00:38:30

actually do the job effectively.

Speaker: 00:38:34

And now that new south Wales is getting continually out of control,

Speaker: 00:38:38

that scenario doesn't really apply.

Speaker: 00:38:42

So they've basically gone back to the Doherty Institute and said, redo the

Speaker: 00:38:46

figures instead of a starting point of 30 people infected, you can have

Speaker: 00:38:52

to start with thousands and trying to tell us what the figure is then.

Speaker: 00:38:57

So so that's the Dougherty report and it's the problem with models

Speaker: 00:39:02

like we've talked about in the past.

Speaker: 00:39:05

Anyone who has faith in a models never been involved in the making of a model?

Speaker: 00:39:09

Well, I was going to say I was listening to an epidemiologist talking

Speaker: 00:39:11

and he said, all models are wrong.

Speaker: 00:39:13

Some models are useful.

Speaker: 00:39:15

Yeah.

Speaker: 00:39:16

Yeah.

Speaker: 00:39:17

And so I've been looking at this Dowdy model and the Grattan

Speaker: 00:39:22

Institute did a model as well.

Speaker: 00:39:25

And and I think the so the Delta variant it's, it's sort of our number.

Speaker: 00:39:30

This is the number of people that are infected person will infect.

Speaker: 00:39:35

So it's somewhere around the 5, 6, 7 sort of mark in terms of the number of people

Speaker: 00:39:41

that, that that the, the, our number is.

Speaker: 00:39:44

And you can reduce that our number with effective tracing

Speaker: 00:39:48

and isolation and quarantine.

Speaker: 00:39:52

Yes.

Speaker: 00:39:52

Exactly.

Speaker: 00:39:53

So so they pulled out some numbers, I'll put this on the screen as well,

Speaker: 00:39:57

build up, and they put a number of scenarios where there was 50%, 70%,

Speaker: 00:40:03

75% and 80% vaccination coverage.

Speaker: 00:40:08

And then they assumed an R number of four, five or six in terms of how, how

Speaker: 00:40:16

easily it spread and running the numbers.

Speaker: 00:40:21

You get a huge variation depending on this.

Speaker: 00:40:24

So for example, I'll just take one, which is the 75% vaccination coverage.

Speaker: 00:40:33

And the peak daily cases would be 73,000.

Speaker: 00:40:41

The peak ICU use would be 8,000.

Speaker: 00:40:46

And the Tova deaths a year would be seven and a half thousand.

Speaker: 00:40:54

But if the number instead of being six was five, then instead of seven

Speaker: 00:41:01

and a half thousand deaths, it's 320.

Speaker: 00:41:05

So these, this sort of exponential growth of the Delta variation, when

Speaker: 00:41:12

you, when you're talking exponential growth, the slightest change in this,

Speaker: 00:41:15

our number makes a huge difference.

Speaker: 00:41:17

Again at the 80% vaccination coverage, actually.

Speaker: 00:41:21

Sorry, I haven't got that on the screen.

Speaker: 00:41:22

I'll have that up.

Speaker: 00:41:23

Ju just as a aside, I've just looked measles has an

Speaker: 00:41:27

arm zero of 16 to 18, right?

Speaker: 00:41:31

Highly infectious.

Speaker: 00:41:33

It is incredibly infectious.

Speaker: 00:41:34

Yeah.

Speaker: 00:41:35

So back to this Grattan Institute modeling this scenario at 80% vaccination

Speaker: 00:41:41

coverage, if the effective, our number is six, there's going to be 2,250 deaths.

Speaker: 00:41:48

But if the number is five, that's going to be 10.

Speaker: 00:41:51

So models, models, like honestly, you cannot look at these models if

Speaker: 00:41:56

you see them with any confidence at all, because you have no idea

Speaker: 00:42:00

how effective any of these sort of restrictions will be on this, our number.

Speaker: 00:42:07

Have you seen the there's a scientific body in the UK?

Speaker: 00:42:10

I think called Sabre who advised the government and their job is to

Speaker: 00:42:15

do effectively worst case scenarios for the government to be able to.

Speaker: 00:42:21

And they have said that if COVID mutates like MERS was that

Speaker: 00:42:28

had a 33% or 30% death rate.

Speaker: 00:42:32

Right.

Speaker: 00:42:33

So that doesn't happen.

Speaker: 00:42:35

Yes, effectively.

Speaker: 00:42:36

They're saying one of the possibilities is that COVID could

Speaker: 00:42:39

mutate and become more deadly.

Speaker: 00:42:42

And, and in that case, if you're having, you know, a thousand

Speaker: 00:42:46

cases a day, a thousand infections a day, 300 of those will die.

Speaker: 00:42:50

Hmm.

Speaker: 00:42:51

Let's hope we don't get anywhere near that.

Speaker: 00:42:53

But this, I just found this one from the Grattan Institute, really interesting.

Speaker: 00:42:59

Just the same group they're running the models.

Speaker: 00:43:02

And just the one change.

Speaker: 00:43:05

If instead of infecting six people on average, you infect

Speaker: 00:43:09

five on average, then the day.

Speaker: 00:43:12

Go from seven and a half thousand down to 320, I just found it quite

Speaker: 00:43:16

extraordinary how that worked.

Speaker: 00:43:18

And so if you see models and when the Dodi report comes out with theirs, it's really

Speaker: 00:43:26

a going to be a it's a guessing game.

Speaker: 00:43:27

And I think we're just going to reach the point where they'll try things for a bit.

Speaker: 00:43:32

They'll try it unrestricted when we get to 80%.

Speaker: 00:43:36

And if it gets out of control and death seemed to start gathering up

Speaker: 00:43:42

quicker than they modeled that I would.

Speaker: 00:43:45

And we'll be back to restrictions.

Speaker: 00:43:47

Yeah.

Speaker: 00:43:48

A real life experiment is really what will be done.

Speaker: 00:43:51

You can, you can have a model to give you some idea of what might happen, but gee,

Speaker: 00:43:55

you wouldn't put a lot of faith in it.

Speaker: 00:43:56

Would you?

Speaker: 00:43:58

Yeah.

Speaker: 00:44:02

You can say, like from the public figures, the chief health officers, we haven't

Speaker: 00:44:06

come across so we can do our best to predict and hypothesize, but yeah, w we

Speaker: 00:44:13

can see, so there are very simple steps to reduce the Azara and wearing a mask.

Speaker: 00:44:20

Honestly, if the two of you are w so if the infected person on the

Speaker: 00:44:24

non-infected person wears a mask, suddenly the R zero drops by.

Speaker: 00:44:29

Even if it's only two, if your job's from six to four, it makes a huge difference.

Speaker: 00:44:34

And people go, oh, you know, a mask doesn't stop the virus.

Speaker: 00:44:37

If it stops 90% of the load coming out of your body.

Speaker: 00:44:41

Yep.

Speaker: 00:44:42

Yeah.

Speaker: 00:44:43

That's enough.

Speaker: 00:44:45

And, and the same with, you know people are talking about w the,

Speaker: 00:44:51

the air that we accept to breathe.

Speaker: 00:44:54

We wouldn't accept drinking water at that clutter.

Speaker: 00:44:57

And so I think there is going to become a lot more focus on

Speaker: 00:45:00

fresh air in public spaces.

Speaker: 00:45:03

This idea of recycling air through the air conditioning

Speaker: 00:45:06

system over and over and over.

Speaker: 00:45:08

There is probably going to be a complete rethink of public spaces, public

Speaker: 00:45:12

buildings, and somewhere in Europe, I think Belgium has now enforced air

Speaker: 00:45:18

quality monitoring, basically monitoring carbon dioxide levels as a proxy of

Speaker: 00:45:24

how much fresh air there is because obviously we breathe out carbon dioxide.

Speaker: 00:45:29

And so the more people you get into a space, the more carbon dioxide you

Speaker: 00:45:32

breathe out and they have set thresholds that effectively, once you reach one

Speaker: 00:45:36

threshold, you, I think you need to get fresh air in above a certain threshold.

Speaker: 00:45:43

The building shut down, and this is all about reducing transmissibility.

Speaker: 00:45:52

Can you tell me Joe, as anybody else built quarantine facilities, any

Speaker: 00:45:56

other countries with that in mind?

Speaker: 00:45:59

Yeah.

Speaker: 00:46:00

And so that podcast was talking about how hotel quarantine was the worst thing

Speaker: 00:46:07

we could have done shutting everyone in these rooms with shared air conditioning.

Speaker: 00:46:12

And how, if we just use motels instead, or like the Northern territory camp?

Speaker: 00:46:18

Yeah.

Speaker: 00:46:18

There everyone was in separate donors.

Speaker: 00:46:20

It basically, it almost certainly wouldn't have broken out a quarantine.

Speaker: 00:46:28

Yeah.

Speaker: 00:46:28

So what was I going to say on that?

Speaker: 00:46:33

So anyway, when you see a model come out, when the Dodi report comes out

Speaker: 00:46:37

take it all with a grain of salt.

Speaker: 00:46:38

And yeah, definitely the mask wearing is going to be with us for a long time.

Speaker: 00:46:43

For that very reason.

Speaker: 00:46:44

It's a big effect on that, our number.

Speaker: 00:46:46

And when we get to the vaccination levels of 75, 80, 80 5% shifting

Speaker: 00:46:51

that our number down just one or two notches is just going to have been

Speaker: 00:46:56

the difference between thousands of people dying and potentially a handful.

Speaker: 00:47:00

Amazing.

Speaker: 00:47:03

If you get nothing else from this episode, deal not go for that one.

Speaker: 00:47:06

Now, does anyone else talking of masks, get frustrated with people

Speaker: 00:47:10

who wear them around their chin.

Speaker: 00:47:13

He goes to the shopping center and it's it's under their nose.

Speaker: 00:47:16

Cause apparently they don't breathe out of their nose.

Speaker: 00:47:18

Yeah, it's saying why.

Speaker: 00:47:20

Yeah.

Speaker: 00:47:21

Oh, I know what it's going to say.

Speaker: 00:47:22

My friends from Victoria who come up to well, they went up to Cairns he months

Speaker: 00:47:26

ago when they are able to, for the most recent lockdown and they just made the

Speaker: 00:47:29

point that there's so much more outdoor dining in Queensland and to pay to

Speaker: 00:47:34

Victoria and even just shops, like we often have the door is open to a shop.

Speaker: 00:47:40

Like it's a big, wide entrance.

Speaker: 00:47:42

That's never sort of closed, whereas, but there is an air Victoria.

Speaker: 00:47:48

Yes.

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But in Victoria, it's a much more confined areas.

Speaker: 00:47:52

Not nearly as outdoorsy as we are with our lifestyle in Queensland

Speaker: 00:47:59

that's to the well, we've been lucky.

Speaker: 00:48:03

I, it would be interesting to see what effect because obviously with

Speaker: 00:48:06

air conditioning, you don't want to lose your cold air inside the door.

Speaker: 00:48:10

And so they blast air down vertically across the doorway to stop all their

Speaker: 00:48:14

escaping and whether that would stop the fresh air mixing or whether that

Speaker: 00:48:19

would be the same as a closed door.

Speaker: 00:48:20

I don't know.

Speaker: 00:48:22

Yeah.

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But my little island retreat that I was just on, we ate out every night and every

Speaker: 00:48:27

breakfast, but it was always outdoors on a patio area and everybody else was as well.

Speaker: 00:48:32

It was, yeah.

Speaker: 00:48:33

Saying couldn't do any Victoria.

Speaker: 00:48:36

Okay.

Speaker: 00:48:36

I had not thanked the patrons in a long, long time.

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Dear listener.

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I need to do it.

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So bear with me for a couple of minutes.

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There are quite a few expenses in running this podcast to, so there's the website,

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there's a hosting of the audio file.

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There's this fantastic restream chat, service live streaming

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patron, the website click on the Patriot league become a donor.

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And then about once every five months, I'll probably read your name out and

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thank you profusely as an . Thank you since starting from the most recent

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So thank you to all of those sponsors much appreciated.

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And if you want to chat to me at any time, sing out and make contact happy to do so.

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So, and we'll get to you again in another few months.

Speaker: 00:51:18

I thank you very much for your time, right?

Speaker: 00:51:22

Okay.

Speaker: 00:51:23

Now next topic is.

Speaker: 00:51:26

Where are we up to in terms of time I 26?

Speaker: 00:51:29

Let's let's do a little bit on Afghanistan.

Speaker: 00:51:31

So thoughts as you look at it shy, and you see the images of the air lift and

Speaker: 00:51:38

all the rest of it, what impressions do you have of the whole thing?

Speaker: 00:51:41

Do you think this is a fiasco and Joe Biden's insane and

Speaker: 00:51:46

they should be staying there?

Speaker: 00:51:47

Or do you have an opinion about it at all?

Speaker: 00:51:49

Does it strike you one layer?

Speaker: 00:51:53

Well, I did a semi-related piece of assessment at uni.

Speaker: 00:51:57

So I'm studying a degree in justice and the assignment task was to come up

Speaker: 00:52:01

with a policy solution for holding our soldiers to account for their war crimes.

Speaker: 00:52:08

And when I got that assignment, I was like,

Speaker: 00:52:14

but luckily they fell.

Speaker: 00:52:16

I downstairs is ex-army.

Speaker: 00:52:18

So I asked him if I could come over for a beer and pick his brain about

Speaker: 00:52:22

what they already have in place, what types of things they have.

Speaker: 00:52:25

And he was like, yeah, sure.

Speaker: 00:52:27

As long as I don't end up being with but shout out to Tim, if you're listening,

Speaker: 00:52:32

he basically said to me that He finds it highly suspicious that the Burton report

Speaker: 00:52:38

came out and basically cleared all the top headquarter staff of any knowledge.

Speaker: 00:52:44

And that it's much the same, whether it was Joe Biden, Donald

Speaker: 00:52:48

Trump, the Taliban, they have been negotiating this exit for months.

Speaker: 00:52:52

They have known it's happening for months that they didn't put any

Speaker: 00:52:56

structures in to start evacuating people sooner, frankly is just garbage.

Speaker: 00:53:02

They knew they've known for months and they, they opted out.

Speaker: 00:53:07

So the, the applicants took it down.

Speaker: 00:53:09

Trump's proudly announcing his agreement with the Taliban.

Speaker: 00:53:15

The Republicans took off their website the day after the evacuation so that they

Speaker: 00:53:21

could point the fingers at Biden, but it was Trump who negotiated the ceasefire.

Speaker: 00:53:26

It was Trump who negotiated that withdrawal.

Speaker: 00:53:28

Yes.

Speaker: 00:53:30

Yep.

Speaker: 00:53:31

And just so structures in place and that's, regardless of whether

Speaker: 00:53:34

it's Australian or American, we're both kind of, I dunno, shrug

Speaker: 00:53:39

their shoulders and it's yeah.

Speaker: 00:53:41

I, when I saw that footage, I like cried cause it's so heartbreaking.

Speaker: 00:53:48

The Republicans would say, well it's a shoddy exit.

Speaker: 00:53:53

It could have been done much better than this.

Speaker: 00:53:55

And I guess Biden would say, well, the military, tell me it wasn't

Speaker: 00:53:59

going to happen over the weekend.

Speaker: 00:54:01

Like a deed.

Speaker: 00:54:02

We thought we had a few months at the end of the day, I don't think there's

Speaker: 00:54:05

ever a pretty exit from that situation.

Speaker: 00:54:07

It's not like you're retreating over the border.

Speaker: 00:54:09

You're just retreating to the capital city.

Speaker: 00:54:11

And it was always going to be an airlift of sorts.

Speaker: 00:54:14

So it's interesting that, you know, the Taliban basically have

Speaker: 00:54:18

allowed a hundred thousand people.

Speaker: 00:54:20

My airplane, like they actually facilitated it and they worked together

Speaker: 00:54:24

with the USA in terms of allowing people into the airport to escape quite

Speaker: 00:54:30

extraordinary, really think about it.

Speaker: 00:54:33

So it didn't shoot down any of the planes.

Speaker: 00:54:36

And I think about a hundred thousand people have been evacuated.

Speaker: 00:54:40

So and then, you know, the only incident besides just general chaos was the suicide

Speaker: 00:54:46

bomber and that was Al Qaeda and ISIS.

Speaker: 00:54:52

Sorry.

Speaker: 00:54:52

So hadn't blown up devices, air strikes.

Speaker: 00:54:56

Yeah.

Speaker: 00:54:57

Sworn enemies of the television in the USA.

Speaker: 00:54:59

So you're doing well when you're the enemy of the television in the USA,

Speaker: 00:55:04

even the Taliban can't stomach you.

Speaker: 00:55:08

Yeah.

Speaker: 00:55:09

But I dunno.

Speaker: 00:55:10

I just think it's quite an extraordinary thing.

Speaker: 00:55:13

That they basically stood back and even assisted the exit

Speaker: 00:55:16

of a hundred thousand people.

Speaker: 00:55:17

I heard a quote from a woman who was saying an Afghan woman who was saying

Speaker: 00:55:22

yeah, the U S were propping up all Lords who were just as bad as the Taliban.

Speaker: 00:55:26

So effectively, there were three people subjugating Afghan women.

Speaker: 00:55:31

It was the U S army.

Speaker: 00:55:33

It was the Taliban and it was the local warlords.

Speaker: 00:55:35

And now that the Americans are gone, there's only two of them subjugating.

Speaker: 00:55:38

So there's slightly more hope.

Speaker: 00:55:42

Yes.

Speaker: 00:55:43

Yep.

Speaker: 00:55:43

It's just one, one of the troublemakers out of the scene.

Speaker: 00:55:46

So it all comes back to this thing that these people have to

Speaker: 00:55:51

have to go through the process of changing the society themselves.

Speaker: 00:55:57

You just can't impose these things from outside and expect to get.

Speaker: 00:56:01

Acceptance.

Speaker: 00:56:02

These people have to be allowed to do it their own way.

Speaker: 00:56:05

And so I was listening to some stuff today, basically talk, I think it was

Speaker: 00:56:10

a late night live, basically making the point that the Taliban say what

Speaker: 00:56:15

you like about the Taliban, but they at least are very anti-corruption and they

Speaker: 00:56:21

will enforce a legal system of sorts.

Speaker: 00:56:24

Now it's going to be Sharia law, but at least people could

Speaker: 00:56:26

actually get some things enforced.

Speaker: 00:56:29

And they're very hard on corruption.

Speaker: 00:56:32

So they actually have some things going for them that would appeal to people.

Speaker: 00:56:36

You can understand, some people would go, this place has been chaotic.

Speaker: 00:56:41

At least I can get some things done with the Taliban in place.

Speaker: 00:56:45

The Muslim brotherhood in Egypt was very much the same that

Speaker: 00:56:48

there was lots of corruption.

Speaker: 00:56:51

Yeah.

Speaker: 00:56:51

And the Muslim brotherhood came in and said, we will stamp out corruption.

Speaker: 00:56:55

We will provide food.

Speaker: 00:56:57

So the sick the poor, you know but you have to accept a law.

Speaker: 00:57:03

So for a lot of people, it was a trade off.

Speaker: 00:57:05

They were willing to pay.

Speaker: 00:57:07

Yes.

Speaker: 00:57:08

Yeah.

Speaker: 00:57:09

Yes.

Speaker: 00:57:09

So I optimistic, oh, it's going to be a disaster for the year and there'll

Speaker: 00:57:17

be a, I wouldn't want to be there.

Speaker: 00:57:19

I wouldn't want any, it's going to be very hard, but it's, it's always been hard.

Speaker: 00:57:25

Well, that's what happens when multinationals, well, when, when

Speaker: 00:57:29

empires keep inviting you all the time you know, the USA is just

Speaker: 00:57:36

the most recent in a long line.

Speaker: 00:57:40

Yes.

Speaker: 00:57:41

Russia, before that.

Speaker: 00:57:43

On goals before that, like they just keep coming through British before.

Speaker: 00:57:47

Yes.

Speaker: 00:57:48

So if, you know, they really need a chance to do it from within and do

Speaker: 00:57:57

it themselves in order to change, just imposing it from the outside and

Speaker: 00:58:02

expecting these people to swallow it.

Speaker: 00:58:04

Whatever's imposed on them, just isn't going to work.

Speaker: 00:58:07

So I listened to a British army interpreter who worked, served out

Speaker: 00:58:11

loud and he said, we, we assume that it's us versus the Taliban.

Speaker: 00:58:16

And he said that it isn't, it's, inter-tribal eight seats, family

Speaker: 00:58:20

level conflicts that have been going on for thousands of years.

Speaker: 00:58:24

And the foreigners coming in are just seen as easy sources of cash and weapons

Speaker: 00:58:31

to carry on these tribal conflicts.

Speaker: 00:58:34

And until they sought out their tribal conflicts, it's

Speaker: 00:58:37

going to make no difference.

Speaker: 00:58:38

Yep.

Speaker: 00:58:39

And if, if the Taliban sought out the corruption issue, that's one

Speaker: 00:58:43

of the biggest issue that they need to get a grip of in that country.

Speaker: 00:58:48

So once you've sorted the corruption out to some extent, then you can

Speaker: 00:58:53

start working on other things.

Speaker: 00:58:54

But if you, if you're just a corrupt society, then you

Speaker: 00:58:58

can't really work on anything.

Speaker: 00:58:59

So so look getting the Americans out.

Speaker: 00:59:02

Let, if, if people just let them alone long enough, then who knows what could

Speaker: 00:59:08

happen, but it's never going to happen with outsiders imposing their view.

Speaker: 00:59:11

So let me quote some stuff here.

Speaker: 00:59:15

This is from the John McAdoo blog.

Speaker: 00:59:17

The first general lesson for Australia as an ally of the us is to recognize

Speaker: 00:59:20

that many Americans are congenitally, unable to comprehend their anniversaries

Speaker: 00:59:25

or to accord them for life.

Speaker: 00:59:27

They cannot accept that other nations won't simply be prepared to abandon

Speaker: 00:59:31

their own history and culture and the norms and institutions that have given

Speaker: 00:59:35

rise to they've given rise to, for an American style democratic capitalist

Speaker: 00:59:41

model Americans as a group, don't seem to understand that when forced to

Speaker: 00:59:45

jettison their traditional institutions, administration, and governance practices

Speaker: 00:59:51

and models, there will be resistance and backlash and enormous opportunities

Speaker: 00:59:55

for corruption and incompetence.

Speaker: 00:59:58

It's exactly right.

Speaker: 00:59:59

They just think, oh, if we show these people wonderful Western liberal democracy

Speaker: 01:00:03

they'll just jump at it and it'll all be over and that's just not how it works.

Speaker: 01:00:08

They just don't get it.

Speaker: 01:00:09

So it's called serfdom, right?

Speaker: 01:00:13

Yes.

Speaker: 01:00:13

American democracy.

Speaker: 01:00:15

Yes.

Speaker: 01:00:17

So I'm actually next week, I think I might do a book review on.

Speaker: 01:00:23

The shock doctrine, I think because people look at the third world, if

Speaker: 01:00:28

you like, or developing countries and, and, and they see them as corrupt, see

Speaker: 01:00:34

them as just not adopting the wonderful Western liberal democratic system.

Speaker: 01:00:39

If only they would do it, then they would be just like us and I.

Speaker: 01:00:45

These people are just never allowed to there's these impositions put on them,

Speaker: 01:00:49

whether militarily by the us inviting them or financially by the international

Speaker: 01:00:55

monetary fund in the world bank just constraining what they do, where they're

Speaker: 01:01:00

not allowed to develop technologies because the us and others have these sort

Speaker: 01:01:06

of copyrights in place and patents that never allow them to develop technology.

Speaker: 01:01:12

So they're just left to grow bananas and dig up rocks out of the soil and

Speaker: 01:01:17

they can't do the valuated things that Western countries can do.

Speaker: 01:01:21

So this sort of behind the eight ball anyway, I think there might be next week.

Speaker: 01:01:23

So there's a lot of criticism of Joe Biden, but I think full credit to

Speaker: 01:01:28

him, he decided no we're out of here.

Speaker: 01:01:33

And there would have been a lot of generals saying, oh, another

Speaker: 01:01:36

six months, another 12 months.

Speaker: 01:01:38

And he said, no, we're, we're out of here.

Speaker: 01:01:40

There was actually an agreement with the Taliban that they would be out by

Speaker: 01:01:44

August, whatever it was, because I think it was an August date because they were

Speaker: 01:01:51

saying you've, you've made this deal.

Speaker: 01:01:54

And if you're not out by this date, there will be repercussions.

Speaker: 01:01:58

Right?

Speaker: 01:01:58

Yep.

Speaker: 01:01:59

So, so the date was imposed on him by an agreement that he

Speaker: 01:02:02

hadn't been party to, right?

Speaker: 01:02:04

Yep.

Speaker: 01:02:05

Yeah.

Speaker: 01:02:06

So.

Speaker: 01:02:07

So that's that.

Speaker: 01:02:08

And just in terms of our involvement in Vietnam, again, the essential report

Speaker: 01:02:15

came out with with a poll of Australians.

Speaker: 01:02:19

So how strongly do you agree or disagree with the following statements about

Speaker: 01:02:23

Australia's involvement in the 20 year conflict in Afghanistan is the

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one that got me was the deployment of Australian troops in Afghanistan

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has benefited Afghanistan and its inhabitants 42% of Australians.

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Agree with that.

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And only 22% disagree.

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What do you 2% say the deployment of Australian troops has benefited

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Afghanistan and it's, you know, I'm saving because for my assignment, I

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had to I had to look for, or sort of give some sort of substantiate that

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what appetite the electorate had for holding Afghan soldiers to account.

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And I couldn't find anything, but I could have, might've made a, been

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at been able to make that work.

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So, Dan, yeah.

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Well only came out today, showing central report only came out today.

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So yeah, 42% of Australians think the deployment of trained troops

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in Afghanistan has benefited Afghanistan and its inhabitants.

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Like, it's not like that was going great under like the back to square one, the

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starters worse than square one, arguably.

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And.

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Yeah, tell veins back in charge and it wasn't the great 20 years.

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Anyway, there's a big disparity between the urban and the regional areas.

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Ah, I'm quite shocked that so many Australians think so positively

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about our involvement there.

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I am surprised by that.

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So let me see.

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So that's Afghanistan.

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I think anybody got anything else they want to add about

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Afghanistan before I move on?

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No, no, I don't think so.

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Unless you want to hear my policy solution, this is your policy as

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to justice in terms of dealing with war crimes by Australian troops.

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And what was your pilot?

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Well, what is your policy solution?

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So my policy solution was clutching at straws, but there's

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an international criminal court.

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So the case that the government repeals laws that they brought

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in, where they basically Australia is in principle aligned with an

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international criminal court.

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But we have laws to say that we'll basically deal with anything.

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John Howard brought in laws that says we're going to

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deal with anything in house.

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Exactly.

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Right.

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So I made an argument that we could repeal that law, that we

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could have our soldiers go off to the international criminal court.

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Where, where on the grounds that they would get an impartial

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hearing because the Barisone report doesn't strike me as impartial.

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Rolling.

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Yeah.

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No electoral appetite for that at all.

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So you had the crazy idea that Australian troops could just comply

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with international law, at least be put, because I just don't think

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there'll be found guilty even the way the Barrett's port was collected.

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They asked soldiers without actually saying to the soldiers,

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like what might be at stake that these matters could be put forward.

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So I think most of the evidence is what do you call it?

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Inadmissible.

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So it would be basically a way to look good and get a fair trial, possibly get

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a really good outcome for everybody.

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Right.

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And, and for those soldiers, for the soldiers who spoke up and

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said, this is actually isn't okay.

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Yeah.

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Things happened cause that they lost their livelihoods.

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They lost their careers.

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They've had battles with their mental health as a result of being a snitch.

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One of the SAS troops who spoke up, had explosives outside of our house.

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So, you know, there is a case to make, even though, even though

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Australians probably don't have an appetite for, for doing it still

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could be the right thing to do.

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Yeah.

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That was my policy solution.

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Okay.

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I sounds fair enough.

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I have just this one concern where I think of soldiers 18, 19, 20, throwing

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into these conflicts, which are not like the second world war where, you know,

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you're there, it's gorilla warfare.

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It's this you're in amongst where you, you don't know friend

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or foe, they all look the same.

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It'd be very stressful situation for soldiers in a Vietnam,

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Ghana, Stan type role where.

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You know, you, you take a hill and in Vietnam, for example, and then you're

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back there the next week taking the same hill and, and you're, you're going

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through a village and you don't know whether the Vietcong in here or not.

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You don't know whether these are the people you're trying to protect,

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or the people are going to try and kill you the same in Afghanistan.

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You just don't know.

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I just have a lot of sympathy for the stress that would be on a young

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man in that situation who might then do something really bad and high,

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a big price for, but they'll put in a terribly difficult situation.

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There is a huge difference between an enlisted soldier and an SAS trooper.

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The SAS troopers are trained to within an inch of their lives.

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None of them are 17, 18, 19.

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Yeah.

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They've all got years of service behind them.

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It's, it's not that this is a one off that this is a snap thing.

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This speaks to a culture of entitlement that comes from the top all the way down.

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Even if it's not condoned, it's certainly not stamped out, but still

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you've got guys put into that culture.

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It's a very, you know, loyal T to the brotherhood type culture.

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I agree one's doing it.

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And the change has to come from the top and I, yeah, I just have some sympathy

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for it wouldn't be easy at times to say, no, I'm not doing that now.

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It's all very easy back here to say that.

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So, so Mila, I was stopped by a helicopter pilot who pulled her.

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Pissed aloud and threatened to shoot American soldiers in

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the middle of the massacre.

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Indeed.

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And that was extraordinary.

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That was extraordinary.

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Would you have done that?

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I don't know until you're in this situation, how can you honestly say

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find it so extraordinary makes it think that we probably wouldn't have, and

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if he had turned his back and walked away, is he as guilty of a war crime

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for having allowed, allowed attack?

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It's just, he was an officer.

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Yes.

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Yeah.

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As, as an AMA and he would have been an officer, so yeah.

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In fact, he would have been more than complicit as the senior or

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one of the senior officers onsite.

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So to allow that, to carry on.

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Yeah, yeah.

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Anyway, I'm just, I agree.

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It's good idea that they should be subject to international law and

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adjudication by independent body.

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That's good.

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Part of the case was is that perhaps with that level of impartiality, they

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might be able to give us some more dirt on more people up the chain.

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Like yeah, because I, I, my ideal solution was to hold the big, the

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big boys, you know, like John Howard to account, but I had to be able to

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bind a policy solution that had been used somewhere else in the world.

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So as far as I could tell, we hadn't ever successfully tried a

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prime minister for Rowan that they didn't commit, but had directed to.

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So anyway, that Paul would say that's left work, gone crazy yet.

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But I remember the opposite with the SAS shooting, IRA members in general.

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And the outcry in the British press that these, these poor, our IRA members

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had been shot dead and hadn't been arrested and allowed to face God.

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Right?

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And the point was, they were planning to set off a bomb in the middle of a tourist.

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It was a military parade in front of tourists.

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So they were going to, they were going to kill hundreds of tourists and they

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were shot dead by the SAS, whether it was justified or not certainly this

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wasn't innocent villages that the soldiers didn't know right or wrong.

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These were criminals who were in the process of a crime

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of a terrorist atrocity.

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Hmm.

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So I don't know that the military is always given a free pass to comparing,

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you know, what has gone on here.

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With the accountability that has been held in other places, again with SAS,

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I think maybe it needs a, a whistle blowing service, somebody

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who you can anonymously contact.

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Yeah.

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Well man, the, my next one I have, I did discuss that, that the army doesn't have

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a, you know, HR department for national security reasons and that type of thing.

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And certainly like at Quantis and in my experience in a, in a range of things

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where I've basically had to deviate from procedure or had to make a complaint,

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having that separate structure.

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Like I, a security, like I hate department, like my chain of command.

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I have a whole range of accessible places that I can go to report something.

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And then I've got a whole range of going somewhere else, if I'm

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not satisfied with the outcome.

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And it seems like the army doesn't have that.

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So if you're being bullied by your commanding officer, you go to his

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commanding officer and that's it.

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Right.

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And that actually doesn't work all of the time.

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Yep.

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Yeah.

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So it was one of your recommendations, our HR department for the no stuck

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with international criminal court.

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I just stuck to one thing I wanted to do HR, but I, again, I couldn't find

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any other military service that also offers the HR department in the world.

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You know obviously there was the TV show JAG.

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Is there a effectively military police service that is responsible

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for the behavior of soldiers?

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Yeah.

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But that's about prosecuting them after they've reached some military rules.

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Yeah.

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Yeah.

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Or it's just like a private police force for dealing with military personnel.

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Isn't it?

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Yeah.

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That definitely, that definitely would be someone somewhere.

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Yeah.

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Yeah.

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Find it in time.

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All right, well I'm going to leave my social contract talk quite another time.

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I think that'll be Nick.

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Next week, I think, oh, well next week it'll just be me and somebody or

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book review or something like that.

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So we will come back as a panel in two weeks time in the chat room.

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Thank you.

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Lots of comments.

Speaker: 01:14:01

They are you guys chat away amongst yourselves about all sorts of things.

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It's hard to keep track of what you're actually, because you're referring to

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what other people have said good on you.

Speaker: 01:14:09

What Lee's been busy in there in very busy bottling.

Speaker: 01:14:12

So may I make a request?

Speaker: 01:14:14

I of the audience, I finally got the courage to listen back to my previous

Speaker: 01:14:19

episodes and got used to my voice and I actually don't see that I'm improving.

Speaker: 01:14:26

So what I thought about might be worthwhile is I would love it if

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an audience member might be able to give some of their time to

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just riff with me prior to a show.

Speaker: 01:14:37

So if any of you are interested in that, could you please pass your

Speaker: 01:14:42

contact details on to Trevor and say, yes, I'd be willing to talk to Shay to

Speaker: 01:14:46

just like, not out some of the issues.

Speaker: 01:14:48

And it would be good if you were someone that's really cutthroat and down the line.

Speaker: 01:14:57

Yeah.

Speaker: 01:14:57

Feelings.

Speaker: 01:14:58

Just like to say, what's your point, what's your view?

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You haven't done this, so you haven't done that.

Speaker: 01:15:04

And I'll be able to just like develop myself much more quickly in that way.

Speaker: 01:15:08

So anyway, Yes.

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Yeah.

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I think that was, that's a different thing.

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Yes.

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I heard it.

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Okay.

Speaker: 01:15:17

Yeah.

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I just thought I'd throw it out there.

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If, if anybody's I don't know, got some spare time that

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would be really useful to me.

Speaker: 01:15:23

And I'd really appreciate that.

Speaker: 01:15:25

So I just Pasco details onto travel and I'll take it from there.

Speaker: 01:15:29

Go to the website, hit the contact link and send us a note and I'll pass

Speaker: 01:15:33

you onto Shai and you can riff away and practice all that sort of stuff.

Speaker: 01:15:39

So so that's all good.

Speaker: 01:15:41

Yeah, I don't think I can go too much further.

Speaker: 01:15:44

I'll spend too much time back in those messages, but good on you for everyone

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who was in there and chatting away amongst yourselves, much appreciated.

Speaker: 01:15:50

Yeah, if you've seen any articles.

Speaker: 01:15:52

Ah, thanks, John.

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Perfect.

Speaker: 01:15:55

Yeah, actually I do have John's details.

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I can give that to you.

Speaker: 01:15:58

So, all right.

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Well, a bit of wind up.

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Thank you for your attention and your listening.

Speaker: 01:16:04

Thank you to the patrons as well.

Speaker: 01:16:06

That's much appreciated and we'll talk to the panel in two weeks time,

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but I'll be back maybe an interview, maybe a book review, not sure next

Speaker: 01:16:15

week about something, but until then.

Speaker: 01:16:17

Bye for now.

Speaker: 01:16:18

Goodbye.

Speaker: 01:16:19

Thanks for tonight.

Speaker: 01:16:21

Good night from him.